MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 5
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Having David Fry back from his elbow injury is helpful, though he is only going to serve as the designated hitter this season, which means Carlos Santana is going to be in the field more. Across the last season-plus, the projected lineup for the Guardians has a sub-15% strikeout rate against southpaws. Of course, that is mostly courtesy of the top half of the batting order, with Gabriel Arias (35.3%, 119 plate appearances), Will Wilson (30.4%, 23 PAs), Jhonkensy Noel (30.1%, 113 PAs) and backup catcher Austin Hedges (36.2%, 94 PAs) providing Fried ample opportunities to make his own magic at the plate.
Across his last 1,027 batters faced, Fried has been consistent in each of the last two years, with a 23.2% combined strikeout rate and a wickedly low .076 ISO against opposite-handed batsmen.
DraftKings and Yahoo are including the second game of the Kansas City at St. Louis doubleheader, where the Royals are expected to have LHP Cole Ragans return from the injured list, having been out for nearly three weeks due to a “mild” groin strain. He made one rehabilitation start in Double-A, recording 62 pitches on Saturday with six strikeouts, seven hits, one walk and a round-tripper, giving up five runs.
Cease allowed three earned runs in each of his last three starts, along with a trio of taters. On the positive side, he handed out only one free pass in each of these appearances and struck out a collective 20 in 16.2 innings.
In the nine games since a nine-run meltdown against the Athletics in West Sacramento, Cease compiled a 3.67 ERA and 3.46 FIP, striking out 60 hitters in 49 innings for 11 whiffs per nine. San Francisco tends to limit strikeouts against southpaws, but the projected lineup for the G-men has a 23.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last year.
Ray is up to 70.1 innings, which is just over double his 34 total innings registered in the two preceding seasons. The 33-year-old is always an adventure to roster, but he has nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings and surprise will be on his side the first time through the order. Collectively, the current San Diego roster has just 55 at-bats against Ray with a .200/.362/.382 triple-slash line, three home runs, one double and 13 strikeouts. It does have 14 walks, which, of course, is always a risk when buying a ticket for the Ray-ller coaster.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays
Leiter had a rough first season with an 8.83 ERA, 6.25 xERA, 5.27 xFIP and 4.29 walks per nine in 35.2 innings. This year in 46.2 innings, he has a 3.66 ERA, 4.74 xERA and 4.92 xFIP, though his walks are up a tad to 4.44 per nine and his strikeouts have slid by nearly one per nine down to 6.94, which makes getting out of jams difficult.
Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe (no relation) are the two at the top of the order to target. Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero have been trending in the right direction over the last season and change, easily making the Rays forget about “He who shall not be named.” Yandy Diaz is an on-base maven, and while he doesn’t have a lot of pop in same-handed situations, he puts the ball in play, which gives him RBI potential as well as scoring himself.
Rookies Kameron Misner and Jake Mangum have shown a little pop at the plate, and both late-bloomers have a green light on the basepaths, with a combined 17 successful steals in 18 attempts.
Expect the Rangers relievers to get some work today, and while they used four on Wednesday, none have worked more than once since Sunday.
Early Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins
Expectations are that Spence will go a couple of innings or however far 30-to-35 pitches will take him. Back in April, he had a couple of outings with mid-50s pitches, but in his 15 appearances since then, he has averaged 24 pitches. To be clear, he has logged multiple innings in nine of the 15 games, but he also has not regularly gone against the top of the opposing lineup.
After Spence, it will likely be LHP Sean Newcomb as the “bulk” relieverthough that is what conventional thinking was yesterday, when it ended up being LHP Jeffrey Springs. It could also be RHP Osvaldo Bido, though the former started did throw 24 pitches on Tuesday.
Newcomb last worked on Monday, with 26 tosses, though the southpaw had been stretched out enough to start several games for Boston, before being traded to the Athletics. Regardless of who comes in, it is a pretty solid core four to target from Minnesota.
Carlos Correa was scratched last night with back tightness, so his availability for today is up in the air. He along with Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers and switch-hitter Willi Castro are accomplished against pitchers of either-handedness and should be the foundation for any Twins stack. Royce Lewis is still looking lost at the plate since returning from his most recent malady, though his home run potential is too tantalizing to overlook. Harrison Bader is a differentiation play from the bottom of the order, with the discount dandy making his backers happy thanks to his sixth home run of the season last night off of Springs. He is better against southpaws, but also has pop in same-handed matchups, if he can get the bat on the ball.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Caglianone made his debut yesterday after being the sixth overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft. Though he was 0-for-5, he is the top prospect for Kansas City while also slotting around 25th on most industry lists. He has shown a discerning eye at the plate with an excellent walk rate in the minors while also limiting strikeouts. He could still get a hit today, but if it doesn’t create any runs and he doesn’t score, this will be a winning wager.
