Saturday brings wall-to-wall baseball with afternoon action getting underway at 1:05 p.m. ET prior to culminating with a six-game featured slate with a first pitch of 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, a Coors Field Extravaganza and more.
Editor’s Note: This Was Originally Published the Morning of May 13
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Zac Gallen vs. San Francisco Giants — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $11,500 | Yahoo $59
Tonight RHP Zac Gallen pulls double duty as the top pitcher on both the main slate as well as the two-game nightcap. The 27-year-old was selected by St. Louis, in the third round of the 2016 MLB Draft after spending three seasons as a starter for the University of North Carolina. The next season he was dealt to Miami along with current National League Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara, for outfield Marcel Ozuna. After spending 2018 and the first part of 2019 pitching for Triple-A New Orleans, the Marlins moved on from Gallen after his debut in order to secure shortstop Jazz Chisholm from Arizona.
Often referred to as a better “real life” pitcher than a DFS option, Gallen has done a nice job of producing a career 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings rate. While it is sometimes hard to know which matchups he will be firing on all cylinders and which ones he will struggle, at the end of the year he always has solid numbers.
This could be the breakout season where Gallen moves into the frontline ace conversation as he is in the top five or top 10 for most pitching categories. Tonight he will be facing a San Francisco squad that is going to roll out as many left-handed batsmen as possible. On Friday, the Giants came through as the late-slate recommendation against RHP Ryne Nelson with a couple of home runs, but Gallen is lightyears ahead of Nelson in the talent department.
In his last 425 matchups against opposite-handed hitters, Gallen has a golden 30.1% strikeout rate with a miniscule .207 wOBA and .094 ISO. The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed, which further boosts the effects of the humidor, which does aid hurlers.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. Cincinnati Reds — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $43
Though RHP Sandy Alcantra is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, he earned that hardware on the strength of 228.2 innings and six complete games across 32 starts. The first two figures led the league, though his 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings and being backed by the Miami offense did not help him with his fantasy totals.
Tonight the 27-year-old is facing a Cincinnati offense that is not equipped to deal with right-handed pitchers. The projected lineup for the Reds has only Jake Fraley (.192 ISO) and Spencer Steer (.153 ISO) producing any type of power. This motley crew also has a 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of last season. Advantage Alcantara.
Early Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Jon Gray at Oakland Athletics — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,800 | FanDuel $9,300 | Yahoo $35
RHP Jon Gray also qualifies as the top arm on the shorter afternoon-sub slate, so he gets the writeup, but rookie RHP Bryce Miller and the Mariners are in Detroit taking on the toothless Tigers, so do not lose site of the youngster as a strong third option.
Gray continues to chug along in his age-31 season and he is a steady presence on the mound. He has a career rate of 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings, so he is likely due for positive regression – which could even happen this afternoon. Oakland is not as horrible as the Motor City Kitties against right-handed pitching, but they are still pretty, pretty bad. The main difference is that the A’s bats at least have power, though that is accompanied by a 25.9% projected strikeout rate against righties.
The one other nice thing about Gray is that he tends to close out the sixth inning, which has him in line for the quality start bonus on FanDuel. Plus with the surging Texas offense behind him, the win bonus is also in play.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Milwaukee Brewers vs. RHP Zack Greinke — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
The Coors Field Extravaganza has a game total that will likely crest over 12.0 runs, so that is the first place to look for offense. The counter-moves will either be the Batters of Birdland at home in Baltimore against RHP Roansy Contreras, the Astros in Chicago against struggling RHP Dylan Cease or Milwaukee hosting RHP Zack Greinke.
If the Brew Crew picks up too much steam against 39-year-old Greinke, look to one of the other recommended teams in tournaments. Greinke has long survived on guile and coaxing hitters into just enough weak contact to keep the bases clear. Even as recently as last year he still managed a 3.68 ERA in what was thought to be his swan song and the results were enough for the Royals to give him another one-year $8.5 million deal.
Even with his 5.18 ERA, only once this season has the venerable veteran allowed more than four earned runs in a start. He does give up the inevitable longball, though if the bases are not occupied, he considers it a reasonable trade off. Greinke pitches to contact and everything is in play as evidenced by his eight home runs against seven walks.
Look to Christian Yelich who may have escaped his multi-season malaise along with Jesse Winker – who is finally healthy – at the top of the order. Willy Adames of course is the best hitter on the team at this point and he pairs nicely with the light tower power of Rowdy Tellez. Full-stacks can be rounded out with journeyman Brian Anderson at the hot corner or youngster Brice Turang who will be manning the keystone position.
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Early Slate Target: Atlanta Braves at RHP Jose Berrios — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
Ideally the name recognition of RHP Jose Berrios keeps gamers away from the Atlanta offense. Berrios is a talented pitcher when he is on and he can be darn near lights out. However, when he does not have his a-game, things can go sideways in a hurry. The depth of the Braves is what makes them a dangerous collection of bats.
Last season, Berrios led the league in hits allowed as well as earned runs, which was exacerbated by a career low 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. To his credit, he was healthy and made 32 appearances, along with a solid 17 quality starts. However, in nine games he allowed five or more runs – for comparison, Greinke has allowed five or more runs only nine times in his last 66 starts.
All-Star sluggers Matt Olson and Austin Riley are strong DFS plays, and they are also intriguing options in the home run market.
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This duo can be combined with fellow All-Stars Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Sean Murphy. Depending on where he lands in the lineup, Eddie Rosario could be a perfect punt option. There is a good chance that Travis d’Arnaud is in the lineup today and he would be the perfect “in-stack” pivot away from Murphy on DraftKings and Yahoo.
Afternoon Slate Target: St. Louis Cardinals at LHP Chris Sale — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
It looks like injuries have taken a toll on LHP Chris Sale with the biggest blow being an elbow injury in 2019 that resulted in Tommy John surgery. There have been shoulder issues, arm issues, rib issues and a broken wrist suffered in a bicycle accident. These occurrences have all conspired to limit the 34-year-old to only 18 starts since his elbow rehabilitation, including just two last year and nine in 2021.
Through seven outings this season, Sale has been saddled with a 6.37 ERA, though some of that has been bad luck as evidenced by his 3.95 FIP, 3.50 xFIP and 4.39 xERA. What is not bad luck is the 10.2 hits per nine innings as hitters are realize he is just challenging them and hoping for the best.
Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are two of the best in the game against southpaws and if catcher Willson Contreras is able to return to form, this is a dangerous trio in the heart of the order. Switch-hitter Tommy Edman does his best work from the right-side of the plate and even though Juan Yepez disappointed last night, if he is slotted in the five-hole on Saturday, he is a strong discount dandy.
Final Thoughts for Saturday, May 13 | MLB DFS Picks
The DC Metro area is dealing with storms moving around the Beltway from Washington to Baltimore. Things are better in the evening, but still not perfect, so keep tabs on this situation as the Nationals are on the earlier slate. The Midwest is once again a spot to monitor with potential rain in Detroit and Minnesota, though neither game has a particularly high risk of being postponed.
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