Thursday is another travel day, and that means more split-slate action. The four-game set locks at 1:07 p.m. ET, followed by a three-game featured slate that begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP Hunter Greene and the Houston offense.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
Today with a pair of short slates, we are tweaking the analysis format to provide thoughts on each pitcher in action. Friday will resume the standard Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks template.
MLB DFS Picks: Featured Slate
- LHP Framber Valdez vs. Los Angeles Angels — 4.1 implied runs: While it is never fun targeting the Angels, with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout being two of the best hitters in the game, Valdez should be able to neutralize the Los Angeles offense with his unique skillset. Over the last 42 starts, the 29-year-old southpaw has a 65.3% ground ball rate, courtesy of a negative-2.4-degree launch angle. Add in the increasing 25.1% strikeout rate and the sub-.100 ISO during this timeframe, and we have ourselves an ace who is about as matchup-proof as it gets.
- RHP Hunter Greene at Boston Red Sox — 5.2 implied runs: This recommendation is not for the faint of heart; however, Greene could lead us to the green with his strikeout upside. Hopefully gamers look at the 5.2 implied total for the Red Sox and head the other direction. Aside from two dreadful starts where he allowed a combined 11 earned runs (at Rockies and vs. White Sox), Greene has ceded just 15 earned runs in his other nine starts. Strikeouts are the currency of the realm in MLB DFS, and Greene has 21 in his last 13 innings and his 12.9 per nine innings are only behind RHP Spencer Strider. This is a “both-sideser,” but be sure to have Greene well represented in your tournament mix.
- LHP Chris Sale vs. Cincinnati Reds — 4.1 implied runs: Injuries have been an issue for Sale, limiting him to just 46 starts over the last five seasons. Prior to that the venerable veteran had a seven-year stretch where he was an All-Star while also finishing sixth or better in the American League Cy Young Award voting. Sale’s advanced metrics have him being unlucky, and his 4.72 ERA should be a full run lower. This is a park downgrade for the Reds, and Sale should have enough in the tank to navigate this lineup.
- RHP Pablo Lopez vs. Cleveland Guardians — 3.8 implied runs: Though fantasy gamers are not particularly fond of Lopez, he currently has a career-best 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings, which ranks seventh in the league among qualified starters. The Guardians have the second-lowest strikeout rate (18.2%) against lefties over the last season and change, but they have very little power (.125 ISO) and have produced runs at a bottom-5 rate (96 wRC+) during this timeframe. Lopez is fine as an SP2 or tournament-differentiation option.
- RHP Tanner Bibee at Minnesota Twins — 4.4 implied runs: Through six career starts in The Show, the 24-year-old righty has held his own, with a 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. There is a good chance that the Twins will get Jorge Polanco back today, which provides a much-needed, All-Star-caliber bat in the middle of the order. Though the numbers are good for Bibee, it makes sense to side with the veteran-laden offense.
- LHP Reid Detmers at Houston Astros — 4.6 implied runs: If Detmers were facing any other team on this slate, he would rank right behind Valdez as the second-best DFS option. Unfortunately, he will be dealing with the Astros, who boast a 130 wRC+ against southpaws since the beginning of last year, and their .207 ISO is behind only the Cardinals.
Update: Ronel Blanco now starting for Houston.
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MLB DFS Picks: Early Slate
- RHP Kevin Gausman vs. Milwaukee Brewers — 3.6 implied runs: This is an easy recommendation, as Gausman is in the midst of a career season and currently striking out 11.7 batters per nine innings, which is the fourth-best rate in the league. Toronto is projected as 3-1 favorites to garner the win, and we can join The Masses in rolling with Gausman.
- RHP Max Scherzer vs. Philadelphia Phillies — 3.8 implied runs: Scherzer is coming off a seven-inning, one-run gem in Coors Field where he recorded a season-high 102 pitches. The Phillies have a terrifying offense on paper, but they are collectively slumping right now. The 39-year-old elder statesman has a long history of success against Philadelphia, and the current collection of hitters has a .194/.256/.344 triple-slash line in 180 at-bats. This is far from a slam dunk, but we should not shy away from Mad Max this afternoon.
- RHP Joe Musgrove at Miami Marlins — 4.0 implied runs: Tossing out his first two starts of the season — Musgrove was dealing with a fractured toe that set back his training regimen — and focusing on the last four games is a fair representation for the 30-year-old’s current form. In four May starts (at Yankees, vs. Red Sox, Dodgers, vs. Dodgers) Musgrove has logged 22.0 innings with a 3.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and one strikeout per frame. Miami has an improving but far-from-daunting offense, and we can look to Musgrove as a strong SP2 or tournament differentiator, as the rest of the pitching options all have major question marks.
- RHP Zach Davies vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.8 implied runs: No “K” in his name and definitely no “K’s” in his game — that is the best way to describe the journeyman, who has a paltry 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings across nine MLB campaigns. However, he is facing the Colorado Rockies, who are dreadful on the road and against right-handed hurlers. Davies should do just enough to return a small profit on his DFS salary, and that is all we can really hope for at this point in the rankings.
- LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. San Diego Padres — 4.2 implied runs: The Padres are an imposing matchup, particularly for young lefties. Luzardo has performed well in his last 29 starts, and while he has only an 8-10 record, he can take pride in a 3.45 ERA, 3.33 FIP and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings during this stretch. He is tournaments only, but if the 25-year-old is dealing this afternoon, he can be a difference maker.
- RHP Freddy Peralta at Toronto Blue Jays — 5.1 implied runs: This has been an up-and-down season for Peralta, and it is difficult to trust him against a loaded Toronto lineup.
- RHP Taijuan Walker at New York Mets — 4.9 implied runs: Though Walker could conceivably shut down the Mets offense, he does not have enough strikeout upside to offset the risk of a mediocre performance. In 11 outings this season, he has reached his high-water mark of six whiffs on three occasions, with three or fewer in his last four appearances.
- RHP Chase Anderson at Arizona Diamondbacks — 5.5 implied runs: The 1.31 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 20.2 innings are purely smoke and mirrors. There is a good chance that Anderson will see those results triple today after battling a potent Arizona offense.
Other MLB Opportunities
J.T. Realmuto has struggled in his career against Scherzer, but he looks enticing in the home run market. with odds as high as +600 when shopping across various sportsbooks. While the veteran catcher has only seven hits in 61 at-bats, with one home run and a pair of doubles, if there ever was a time to pick on Scherzer, it is now. The slumping bat of Kyle Schwarber is bound to get going at some point, and he is 4-for-12 against Scherzer, with a pair of home runs and five walks. Today a couple of books have him at +250 to hit a home runs, with a +265 number available for those who take advantage of OddsShopper.
On the featured slate, Max Kepler is +560 to hit a home run against Bibee, who has a range of 1.25 to 1.35 home runs allowed per nine innings from most of the key season-long projection systems.
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Final Thoughts for Thursday, June 1 | MLB DFS Picks
Minnesota is the only venue with precipitation risk on Thursday, though the worst-case scenario is only a delay.
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