Today’s evening slate is limited to only three games, so finding the MLB DFS value spots that are also not pulling too much ownership will be tough. That said, Stokastic has all the latest news, notes and MLB DFS projections to help us construct our lineups, so let’s get into the MLB DFS slate and determine the leverage spots.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 1
Cincinnati Reds (Hunter Greene) at Boston Red Sox (Chris Sale)
This game features two pitchers with extremely high ceilings. Greene’s 32.8% strikeout percentage is the highest of any pitcher starting a game today, while Sale has struck out 27.9% of hitters. Both pitchers also have an xFIP below 4.00. Sale is just $7,900 on DraftKings and has the second-highest top-2-pitcher percentage, while Greene has about a 30% chance of being a top-2-pitcher but is pulling just 21% ownership at $7,100. Sale’s matchup is better, but getting someone with Greene’s strikeout upside as the fifth-highest-owned pitcher on a three-game slate is extremely appealing.
There is upside for the offenses as well. Every pitcher on this slate is good to excellent, so do not ignore a team just because the matchup is not great. Boston is first in top-stack percentage, and the Reds are third, as they get to hit in Fenway Park instead of Houston or Minnesota. Most of Boston’s best hitters are left-handed, but Greene has been more vulnerable to right-handed power in his career. That is not to say we should not roster Boston’s lefties, but do not sleep on Justin Turner at $3,800 with first base and third base eligibility. Sale has mostly been good at limiting power this season against teams other than the Orioles, but the Reds do have some talented right-handed hitters that can take advantage of the Green Monster in left field. Matt McLain in particular stands out as a strong play as a $4,100 shortstop.
Cleveland Guardians (Tanner Bibee) at Minnesota Twins (Pablo Lopez)
There are two more quality pitchers squaring off in this one. Lopez has struck out 30% of hitters this season and has a 3.69 xFIP, while Bibee has posted a 25% strikeout percentage and a 4.22 xFIP in his rookie season. Cleveland is a difficult team to strike out, but it has also been one of the least productive teams in baseball against right-handed pitching this season. The Twins are the opposite, as they have been an above-average offense that also strikes out frequently. Target Field is the worst park for home runs on the slate, which makes the offenses a little bit less exciting than they would be otherwise.
Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers) at Houston Astros (Ronel Blanco)
The Angels were the least likely team to succeed in the Top Stack tool, but now Blanco is starting instead of Framber Valdez, and they are still projected to be under-owned. Detmers has taken a step forward this season, striking out 28.4% of hitters and posting a 3.94 xFIP. He will have his work cut out for him, however, as Houston’s implied run total is the second highest on the slate.
