Expert MLB DFS Advice: Tough Matchup Doesn’t Phase Framber Valdez (June 8)

Today’s evening slate is shorter one, and the limited options are making MLB DFS value a tough thing to come by. Luckily, Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections are here to help. Using the projections alongside the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, we can find a few leverage spots that the field may be undervaluing, such as a top Cy Young contender in a tough matchup.

MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 8

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Houston Astros (Framber Valdez) at Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)

This is a difficult matchup for both pitchers, but it is a short slate, so they still have value. Valdez in particular is appealing, as he enters the game with a 27.6% strikeout percentage and 2.70 xFIP. He has the second-highest top-2-pitcher percentage at 29.3%, and he is only projected for 17% ownership. Berrios comes in with a 22% chance of being a top-2 pitcher at 18.5% ownership. Offensively, Toronto has the lowest Top Stack percentage, while the Astros are in the middle of the pack. Berrios has struggled with left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .196 xISO and .352 xwOBA. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker individually stand out as top hitter plays.

Boston Red Sox (Matt Dermody) at Cleveland Guardians (Aaron Civale)

Dermody has made eight starts and nine appearances at Triple-A this season, striking out 24.4% of hitters and posting a 4.06 FIP. He is minimum salary tonight on DraftKings and has a 13.7% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher in addition to a 49% chance of being a top-2 value pitcher. Civale threw 83 pitches in his return from the Injured List and should not be too limited tonight. He does have a difficult matchup with Boston, however. Cleveland is first in Stack Score thanks to a 27.5% chance of being the top value stack. On a slate with two expensive ace pitchers, paying down for Cleveland bats against an unproven pitcher is a strong move.

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New York Mets (Justin Verlander) at Atlanta Braves (Spencer Strider)

Strider has a tough strikeout matchup, but he is far and away the best strikeout pitcher on the slate (and in baseball). He has struck out 40.6% of hitters this season and has a 2.83 xFIP. Not surprisingly, he has slightly better than a 50% chance of being one of the top 2 pitchers on the slate, and he is projected for 60% ownership. Verlander has struggled this season, posting a 4.39 xFIP while only striking out 20.5% of hitters. He is a viable SP2 given the short slate, but he has his work cut out for him against Atlanta and does not come at much of a discount at $8,600. Verlander’s biggest issue has been left-handed power, as lefties have a .195 xISO against him. This makes Matt Olson stand out among Atlanta hitters.

Chicago Cubs (Drew Smyly) at Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)

Smyly is an average pitcher facing a dangerous Angels lineup in a hitter-friendly park. He is projected to be under-owned, as he has a 16.4% chance of being a top-2 pitcher at just 10% ownership. Detmers is projected to be the second-most popular pitcher on the slate, as he is only $6,500 on DraftKings, has struck out 26.4% of hitters this season and has a 4.05 xFIP. The Cubs active roster has a 113 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of last year, so there is plenty of risk here. They have also struck out 23.9% of the time, however. Smyly has been good at limiting power in 2023, but that should not stop DFSers from looking to the Angels, as they rank second in Stack Score.

Adam Scherer
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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