Today’s evening slate is shorter one, and the limited options are making MLB DFS value a tough thing to come by. Luckily, Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections are here to help. Using the projections alongside the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, we can find a few leverage spots that the field may be undervaluing, such as a top Cy Young contender in a tough matchup.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 8
Houston Astros (Framber Valdez) at Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)
This is a difficult matchup for both pitchers, but it is a short slate, so they still have value. Valdez in particular is appealing, as he enters the game with a 27.6% strikeout percentage and 2.70 xFIP. He has the second-highest top-2-pitcher percentage at 29.3%, and he is only projected for 17% ownership. Berrios comes in with a 22% chance of being a top-2 pitcher at 18.5% ownership. Offensively, Toronto has the lowest Top Stack percentage, while the Astros are in the middle of the pack. Berrios has struggled with left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .196 xISO and .352 xwOBA. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker individually stand out as top hitter plays.
Boston Red Sox (Matt Dermody) at Cleveland Guardians (Aaron Civale)
Dermody has made eight starts and nine appearances at Triple-A this season, striking out 24.4% of hitters and posting a 4.06 FIP. He is minimum salary tonight on DraftKings and has a 13.7% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher in addition to a 49% chance of being a top-2 value pitcher. Civale threw 83 pitches in his return from the Injured List and should not be too limited tonight. He does have a difficult matchup with Boston, however. Cleveland is first in Stack Score thanks to a 27.5% chance of being the top value stack. On a slate with two expensive ace pitchers, paying down for Cleveland bats against an unproven pitcher is a strong move.
New York Mets (Justin Verlander) at Atlanta Braves (Spencer Strider)
Strider has a tough strikeout matchup, but he is far and away the best strikeout pitcher on the slate (and in baseball). He has struck out 40.6% of hitters this season and has a 2.83 xFIP. Not surprisingly, he has slightly better than a 50% chance of being one of the top 2 pitchers on the slate, and he is projected for 60% ownership. Verlander has struggled this season, posting a 4.39 xFIP while only striking out 20.5% of hitters. He is a viable SP2 given the short slate, but he has his work cut out for him against Atlanta and does not come at much of a discount at $8,600. Verlander’s biggest issue has been left-handed power, as lefties have a .195 xISO against him. This makes Matt Olson stand out among Atlanta hitters.
Chicago Cubs (Drew Smyly) at Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
Smyly is an average pitcher facing a dangerous Angels lineup in a hitter-friendly park. He is projected to be under-owned, as he has a 16.4% chance of being a top-2 pitcher at just 10% ownership. Detmers is projected to be the second-most popular pitcher on the slate, as he is only $6,500 on DraftKings, has struck out 26.4% of hitters this season and has a 4.05 xFIP. The Cubs active roster has a 113 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of last year, so there is plenty of risk here. They have also struck out 23.9% of the time, however. Smyly has been good at limiting power in 2023, but that should not stop DFSers from looking to the Angels, as they rank second in Stack Score.
![College football Week 5 continues with a four-game Friday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let's get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Friday, Sept. 29. CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Friday, Sept. 29 Quarterback Emory Jones ($6,900): The top price-adjusted quarterback on the slate, Emory Jones, and the Cincinnati Bearcats are 2-point favorites over BYU in a game with a 48 total. Jones averages 242.5 passing yards per game on 31 attempts. He also has elite mobility, with 32 designed attempts through four games. Hank Bachmeier ($5,800): Hank Bachmeier should have a better chance to play this game after being available "in case of emergency" last week. Louisiana Tech ranks 63rd in pace and passes 55.6% of the time. This makes whoever starts at quarterback a strong value. Jack Turner played well in place of Bachmeier last week and actually looks to provide decent mobility. If Bachmeier misses, Turner is an easy swap option. Jack Plummer ($8,500): On a relatively weak quarterback slate, Jack Plummer stands out between the pair of expensive options. Louisville comes in as a 3-point favorite over North Carolina State in a game with a 55.5 total. Plummer has averaged 280 passing yards per game and is hyper-efficient. The North Carolina State defense projects to provide little resistance, allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Plummer also has 13 designed rush attempts this year, which helps prevent the negative rushing stats from early in his career. the_ad id="340345"] Running Back Jawhar Jordan ($7,000): Louisville has begun to feature Jawhar Jordan at the expense of Isaac Guerendo and Maurice Turner. Jordan has 18 carries in back-to-back games and four targets in that span. His route rate has also eclipsed 50% in those two games. Jacob Fields ($3,700): Louisiana Tech is dealing with injuries to Keith Willis Jr., Charvis Thornton and Tyre Shelton. Marquis Crosby has also yet to play this year. If this injury situation breaks right, Jacob Fields should lead a committee also featuring Keldric Moody. This is a pure late-news situation. L.J. Martin ($5,100): Corey Kiner ($4,700): Ryan Montgomery left last week's game with an injury, allowing Corey Kiner to receiver more work. He finished with 10 carries and three targets in a decisive loss to Oklahoma. His workload stands to increase in more competitive games. Watch Montgomery's status ahead of kickoff. Jaylon Glover ($5,000): Utah already lost Micah Bernard for the year, and Ja'Quinden Jackson enters this game with the questionable tag. If out, Jaylon Glover projects to handle a feature back workload. Last week he saw 25 carries and one target. Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s' college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now! Wide Receiver Isaac Rex ($4,700): Despite coming in as a slight underdog, BYU still ranks 58th in pace and passes 57.4% of the time. Tight end Isaac Rex not only paces the team in targets (34), but he has the best route rate of the group as well. Smoke Harris ($6,800): One of the premier receivers on the slate, Smoke Harris averages 73.4 receiving yards per game on a 26.9% target share. In the Louisiana Tech offense this equates to 8.6 targets per game. Braden Smith ($4,200): Braden Smith ranks second on Cincinnati with 22 targets this year, averaging 49.5 yards per game. He projects as one of the top price-adjusted receivers on the slate. Jamari Thrash ($6,600):  Jamari Thrash is one of the most explosive receivers in college football, averaging 100 yards per game behind a 25.2% target share. With little salary restrictions on this slate, Thrash should be a priority.
<script type="text/javascript">
window.offersWidgetNamespace = {};
offersWidgetNamespace.offersWidgetQuantity = "";
offersWidgetNamespace.offersWidgetSportsbook = "";
</script>
<!doctype html><html lang="en"><head><meta charset="utf-8"/><link rel="icon" href="/wp-content/plugins/state-offers-widget/build/favicon.ico"/><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1"/><meta name="theme-color" content="#000000"/><meta name="viewport" content="initial-scale=1,width=device-width"/><meta name="description" content="Web site created using create-react-app"/><link rel="apple-touch-icon" href="/wp-content/plugins/state-offers-widget/build/logo192.png"/><link rel="manifest" href="/wp-content/plugins/state-offers-widget/build/manifest.json"/><title>React App</title><script defer="defer" src="/wp-content/plugins/state-offers-widget/build/static/js/main.46840026.js"></script><link href="/wp-content/plugins/state-offers-widget/build/static/css/main.5f9a613e.css" rel="stylesheet"></head><body><noscript>You need to enable JavaScript to run this app.</noscript><div id="root" class="stokastic_offer_widget"></div></body></html>](https://www.stokastic.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/AP22319732272929-1-scaled.jpg)
