The MLB returns to a larger schedule of 14 evening games, and MLB Bet Pro has once again identified several high-value spots. Today’s picks are dominated by pitcher bets, particularly unders since the books are giving mediocre pitchers some underserved lines. We will cover a few of those below, but also note that the following are merely three of the +EV MLB player props available on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | May 26
3. Joey Wentz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-128, FanDuel)
Ignoring Wentz’s 7.45 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and 17.6% strikeout rate this season, the White Sox are not a team to target for strikeouts. They are below average in terms of strikeout rate (barely, but still), and only two players in the projected lineup have strikeout marks above 21%. Plus, Wentz has only gone over 4.5 strikeouts three times in nine starts this season, so it is not like a neutral (or even slightly plus) matchup would lend credence to an over here. He is only projecting for 3.7 strikeouts today, and that is leading to a 11% on a 62% win expectancy for the over on MLB Bet Pro.
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2. Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135, BetMGM)
Altuve only has 16 plate appearances under his belt this season. So while he has only gone over 1.5 total bases once in four games, the sample is not nearly enough to give that weight. Last year he averaged almost exactly two total bases per game, and given the matchup with James Kaprielian, it is safe to give Altuve’s projection a slight boost. This year Kaprielian has surrendered a WHIP of 1.86, a slugging of .541 and 15 extra-base hits in just 28 innings. Even if Altuve only gets one or two cracks at Kaprielian, he has a good shot at an extra-base hit.
The over here is only getting a 47% win rate from MLB Bet Pro. But with the plus money at +135, Altuve projecting for 2.3 total bases is leading to a 12% EV on the over.
1. Jared Shuster Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110, BetMGM)
Yes, the Phillies as a team have an above-average strikeout rate, but there is little reason that a pitcher with 6.9 strikeouts per nine, a 17.7% strikeout rate and just one career over on 4.5 strikeouts should have this line. Shuster struck out seven in his last start, so now he gets the average strikeout over/under of 4.5 rather than the 3.5 he should be getting. He was under 4.5 in his three starts prior, two of which were against other teams with above-average strikeout rates. Shuster is only projecting for 3.8 strikeouts tonight, and with the under odds at -110, it is getting the best EV of the day, at 13%.
