Sunday baseball means games all afternoon, and today we are focusing on the mid-afternoon slate of games to find the best MLB player props today. Right now MLB Bet Pro is finding huge value in the Pirates-Mariners game, and we will cover a couple props here. Do note that there are a ton of other +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro for the earlier slate; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | May 28
3. Jack Suwinski Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100, BetRivers)
Suwinski’s raw stats are decent this year — hits in over half his games, solid power numbers, modest batting average — but his platoon splits are pretty stark. Today he is facing lefty Marco Gonzales, who is generally a gettable pitcher. Fortunately for him, Suwinski is hitting just .140 in lefty-lefty matchups for his career, and that jumps marginally up to .194 in a limited 2023 sample (37 plate appearances). He has just 18 total hits against lefties in his 149 major league games.
He may only get two plate appearances against Gonzales before facing the Seattle bullpen, but MLB Bet Pro likes taking the chance on Suwinski’s lefty struggles to continue. The +100 odds are leading to an 11% ROI in the model right now.
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2. Marco Gonzales Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-114, Caesars)
Gonzales could have his way with Suwinski. That said, the projected Pirates lineup features four righties and three switch-hitters, and this year Gonzales has just a 15.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. He is not striking out lefties that much either, as he is recording just a 15.6% strikeout rate overall and he has exceeded 4.5 strikeouts only twice in nine starts. Plus, Pittsburgh is below league average in strikeout rate, both overall and against lefties.
Gonzales only projects for 3.5 strikeouts on MLB Bet Pro, leading to a 16% EV for the under.
1. Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100, BetMGM)
Kelly has taken a surprising leap at age 34, boosting his strikeouts rates while lowering his ERA and WHIP. His per-nine strikeout rate is up to 9.3 — a full strikeout above his previous career high — and at that clip he will need to go five innings to get to five strikeouts. The Red Sox strike out below league average, but Kelly has gone five innings in all but one start this season and has eclipsed the 4.5 mark in five of his last six.
MLB Bet Pro has Kelly for 5.6 strikeouts, far surpassing this line, and the plus money makes this over the No. 1 MLB player prop of the slate.
