Memorial Day brings another split slate with baseball all across the afternoon and into the evening. There are 11 games total today, and MLB Bet Pro has found a number of MLB player props with double-digit EVs. One notable one comes from the Angels-White Sox game that features the upstart Michael Kopech on the bump and seeing an increase to his strikeout line. Does he have what it takes to keep up his hot streak? Let’s dive into the model and find out.
Please note that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
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3. Bobby Miller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-104, BetRivers)
Miller has made just one start in his major league career and barely cleared this line, striking out five in five innings. What is more encouraging than that, however, is his strikeout production in the minors, where he struck out over 11 per nine innings in Single- and Double-A before dipping a bit once called up to Triple-A. That said, his Triple-A numbers come from a small sample of four starts, and he is the No. 1 pitching prospect in the Dodgers system right now (No. 5 in MLB).
The Nationals strike out at the lowest rate in MLB, but Miller’s stuff projects well enough that MLB Bet Pro has him striking out 5.0 tonight. That gives the over on 4.5 strikeouts a 56% win rate and a 10% EV.
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2. Carlos Santana Under 0.5 Hits (+160, PointsBet)
Santana unders make up two of the top ROI opportunities on today’s slate. The other is Santana under 1.5 total bases, which comes with a higher win expectancy but also significantly shorter odds at -165. As such, this one gets the slight edge since it comes at plus money that gives it a 4-percentage-point EV advantage.
Santana matches up with Anthony DeSclafani, who largely pitches to contact and gives up a good number of hard-hit balls. He does, however, also manage to keep those balls from finding the gaps, as he has just a 1.04 WHIP and 8.1 hits per nine, both respectable numbers. And though he gives up a bit more to lefties, Santana’s splits are quite a bit worse against righties. The fact that this game will be in one of the worst ballparks for home runs also points toward DeSclafani.
MLB Bet Pro gives this under a lower win rate of 43%, but the plus money still makes it one of the best props of the slate in terms of projected ROI.
1. Michael Kopech Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125, BetRivers)
Kopech may finally be figuring some things out. He had 19 total strikeouts in 15 innings over his last two starts, allowing just three hits combined in the process. However, those games came against the Royals and Guardians — the teams with the two lowest OPS+ marks in baseball. Tonight he gets the Angels, who are above average in that category and who strike out at a below-average clip.
Prior to his two-game surge, Kopech had just two overs on 6.5 strikeouts in eight starts, and he was not getting pulled early all that often either — he made it through the fifth inning in all but two of those games. The question is, has Kopech truly turned everything around, or was this a two-game blip against miserable offenses? MLB Bet Pro leans the latter, projecting him for 5.4 strikeouts and giving the under a 65% win expectancy.
