MLB Bet Pro‘s strong week continued yesterday, as we went 2-1 in the top 3 picks to bring our tally for the week to a solid 8-3. It cannot be overstated how valuable a tool it is when it comes to scouring the market and finding high-EV leverage points. Today there is an abundance of those once again, and one comes from Minnesota, where Pablo Lopez is seeing a line that screams money. Let’s take a look at that and other MLB player props for Thursday.
Please note that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | June 1
3. Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105, BetMGM)
Targeting Hunter Greene from both sides — strikeouts for him and hitter props against him — has been a lot of fun this year. He has undeniable strikeout stuff, as evidenced by 12.9 strikeouts per nine and a 32.8% rate (both second in the National League to Spencer Strider), but he also gives up 44.1% hard contact and a .359 BABIP. In other words, when hitters do make contact against Greene, it usually is good contact.
Surprisingly, Greene does have reverse splits, but Devers is one of the better left-handed bats in MLB. He is slugging .580 and has an elite .269 ISO against right-handed pitching this year, and with the game total at 9.5, Vegas expects a relatively high-scoring game in Boston. This is an exploitable spot for an elite hitter against a volatile pitcher; MLB Bet Pro gives this over a 4% expected ROI.
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2. Framber Valdez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-152, FanDuel)
Valdez has historically not been a strikeout pitcher in the sense that it was not the thing that made him dominant — that has been his absurd ground ball rate — but he is putting up some career-best strikeout numbers this year. His 26.9% strikeout rate is a career best, and he has eclipsed 5.5 in seven of 11 starts this season. That includes a 12-punchout game against these Angels early last month. And sure, the Angels lineup is potent, but it is also above average in strikeout rate, with the 14th-highest team mark in baseball.
Valdez projects to match his median and average strikeout mark of seven today, and that is leading to a 66% win expectancy and 10% EV for the over on MLB Bet Pro.
Update: Ronel Blanco now starting for Houston.
1. Pablo Lopez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150, BetMGM)
A Twins starter cashed this prop yesterday, and MLB Bet Pro likes Lopez to follow in the steps of Louie Varland against the Guardians.
This 4.5 line for Lopez seems off, quite frankly. Yes, the Guardians have MLB’s second-lowest strikeout rate, but Lopez is seventh in the majors in strikeouts, both total and per nine, and he has only fallen short of this line once in 11 starts. His strikeout rate is 30%, for goodness’ sake. Pretty much every other starter with his strikeout production has been in the 6.5- or even 7.5-strikeout range with their lines this year; why Lopez is down to 4.5 is unclear.
Lopez is projecting for 6.3 strikeouts in this game, leading to a win percentage of 69% and a slate-high 15% EV on MLB Bet Pro. Some books have this at a more accurate number of 5.5, but truthfully it will not be a conundrum until it reaches 6.5 — 5.5 is still a slam-dunk over.
