Monday’s NBA slate gives the Boston Celtics the opportunity to be the first team to overcome an 0-3 deficit in the Conference Finals. Get ready for a thrilling game with an 8:30 p.m. ET tip off on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. Can Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown lead Boston to history, or will Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo be the better duo? Let’s dive into the data and find out.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Monday, May 29
Core Play of the Day — Jayson Tatum — Boston Celtics
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 54.85 | FanDuel: 52.94
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 61.2% | FanDuel: 61.8%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $13,800 | FanDuel: $17,500
From spicy to intriguing to the brink of a historic comeback, the Boston Celtics have certainly pumped some serious life back into this series.
Jayson Tatum was outstanding on Saturday, with 31 points in 44 minutes. Though he missed all eight attempts from beyond the arc, he was 8 of 14 on 2-point shots while also going 15 of 15 from the charity stripe. That resulted in his fourth 50-fantasy-point effort in the last five games of this series and on DraftKings led to a $400 increase, while on FanDuel he remains at the site maximum of $17,500. The main decision point will be to roll out Tatum in the top multiplier slot, particularly on DraftKings.
Currently with the Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections as of this morning, the top-projected lineup score on DraftKings is 209.63 with Tatum in a utility slot. The first lineup with Tatum in the Caption slot checks in at 205.99 and is the 10th best. Over on the blue site, without the salary premium for the multiplier slot, Tatum is in the top-projected lineup with a 251.25 score, and he holds that honor in six of the eight best median-projected lineups.
Playing this all the way out, the only lineups without Tatum that have the 20 highest median projections are the 7th, 17th and 19th rosters. There are only two other lineups in the top 50 that do not have Tatum in some form or fashion.
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Jaylen Brown actually is the best option on DraftKings as the Captain in two of the four highest-projected lineups. Even more interesting, he is on the first 19 lineups when running 100 in optimizers without any other limiting parameters. Until Game 6, Brown had not reached the 40-fantasy-point plateau in this series, and in Games 2 and 3, he failed to produce more than 25 fantasy points. Brown did miss all four of his 3-point attempts in the last tilt, but he was 9 of 12 from inside the arch and 8 of 10 from the free throw line. The 26-year-old seems to have regained his eye for the basket, and he has converted 25 of 50 in his last three appearances.
Even better, Underdog Fantasy is running a special promotion where Brown has an over/under of 0.5 points. Up to $20 can be placed on your first card utilizing this promotional bonus. Additionally, new users, use this link receive a first deposit match up to $100.
Malcolm Brogdon is still questionable with a strained right forearm, and considering he made just one of 13 attempts in Games 3, 4 and 5 while playing just 43 combined minutes, it would be a risk to play him even if he suits up tonight. Because he is questionable, the Stokastic NBA DFS projections currently are accounting for him to play 19 minutes. If he is out, that playing time will easily be absorbed by the rest of the shortened Boston rotation. If he is in, then it makes sense to let other gamers assume the risk that he is still not fully recovered from his injury. For those feeling bold, Brogdon is in play around lineup No. 25.
Update:Â Brogdon has been announced as available – considering he comes off the bench, there is no real indicator of how effective he will be on offense, even if he gets back to 20-25 minutes. The analysis in the preceding paragraph still holds. EMac
Marcus Smart has scored 21 and 23 points in the last two games, yet he has just three total assists in 72 minutes of action. Expect that to change tonight, and he should be in the mix for a handful of helpers while also flirting with a third consecutive 20-point game. In the last three tilts, he has taken 26 3-point attempts, and he benefits from not having Brogdon on the court.
Derrick White has seen his fantasy production increase in each game of this series, and he was the hero on Saturday, with a last-second putback giving the Celtics a 104-103 victory in Miami. Michael Jordan is the only other player who has made a similar shot with time winding down in an elimination game in the Conference Finals. Over the last three games with 32 or more fantasy points, White has seen his salary increase from $7,000 to $12,000 (71%) on FanDuel and from $4,400 to $6,400 (45%) on DraftKings. If he maintains that level of production, he is a neutral play on DraftKings and a below-average choice on FanDuel.
Al Horford fell back to being a subpar fantasy producer in Game 6 after rallying for a pair of 30-fantasy-point outings in the preceding pair of performances. Even with Robert Williams III back in a reserve role for 18 to 20 minutes, it is tough to trust Horford or see much upside. Williams had an efficient game, making 4 of 5 from the field and adding seven rebounds and a block. That was his most productive effort in the last four games, though with his salary falling down to a series-low $4,400 on DraftKings, he still has some tournament upside — particularly if Horford is ineffective, runs into foul trouble or suffers an in-game malady.
Grant Williams saw solid minutes, but he only had four field goal attempts, resulting in his fourth sub-20-fantasy-point performance of the last five games. Essentially his salary remained neutral on the main DFS sites, which still has him in play, even with a usage rate in the low teens.
Payton Pritchard did not set foot on the court, though Sam Hauser did check in at the start of the second quarter for Tatum, playing 1:50 minutes with nary a stat. If Brogdon remains out, it could be Hauser that gets a quick peek, though Pritchard just as easily could depending on the situation. Neither of these players is likely to do much outside of any potential mop-up duty.
Jimmy Butler — Miami Heat
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 50.35 | FanDuel: 51.17
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 44.6% | FanDuel: 59.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $13,600 | FanDuel: $16,500
It looked like Miami was going to the NBA Finals until White had his miraculous putback. Jimmy Butler had his fourth 50-plus-fantasy-point outing of the series, and that is right where his projection is again tonight. If this game is competitive, Butler will play 44 or more minutes in the win-or-go-home scenario.
Bam Adebayo was outstanding in 46 minutes, rolling up 40 fantasy points, and he is in line for a similar median fantasy projection tonight. Underdog Fantasy has Bam with a 35.95-fantasy-point line, and as long as this game is competitive, he should be able to surpass that milestone. The former Kentucky Wildcat has a fantasy floor in the low-30s, an attainable upside of around 40 fantasy points, and a 50-burger is on the menu if everything falls into place.
Caleb Martin slid into the starting lineup for Game 6 and played a whopping 40:33 minutes while making a trip to the 40-fantasy-point plateau. Expecting a reprisal of his 21-point, 15-rebound game is folly, but he should be able to tally something in the mid-30s if he remains with the starting five. With only a $200 increase on DraftKings and a $500 adjustment on FanDuel, he should be one of the most popular players on both of the main DFS sites.
Gabe Vincent (ankle) returned after a one-game absence, and he played just over 41 minutes and took a whopping 18 field goal attempts, which is the most he has taken in the last 11 games. While that is within the range of outcomes, something closer to 10 to 12 is more likely. Kyle Lowry returned to the bench and once again had a 20-fantasy-point outing after dropping a single-digit dud in his spot start. That is a reasonable expectation again tonight, with a little room for upside if his shot is falling or he lucks into a couple of extra assists and a multi-steal game.
Max Strus continued to muddle and meander his way along to yet another boring fantasy game with mid-teens points. He has yet to top 20 fantasy points this series, and he is a better play on DraftKings, where his salary has dropped to a postseason low of $4,800. Duncan Robinson is in the mix, though he is entirely dependent on putting the biscuit in the basket for his fantasy production. Of every player seeing regular minutes, he has the widest range of outcomes, having a 0-fantasy-point game in seven minutes of action this series and a high-water mark of 35 fantasy points in Game 5 — caveat emptor!
Kevin Love was removed from the starting lineup and did not leave the bench, drawing a DNP-CD alongside Haywood Highsmith and the usual suspects. It was Cody Zeller who came in for 2:21 minutes towards the end of the first quarter as the replacement for Adebayo, who never left the court when he returned. One of this trio is likely to get a couple minutes in the first half, though all three could easily be glued to the bench. Unless one is back in the starting lineup, this group is best employed in a lineup that is crafted to take advantage of a lopsided game — which is in play for those building 50 or more lineups tonight or, of course, those gamers with a high tolerance for risk.
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Things are looking pretty tight on the betting market. However, there is some wiggle room for Caleb Martin, with a 15.5 points prop. Even if he remains in the starting lineup, he will need to continue his torrid shooting from the field. This series he has converted 58.3% of his field goal attempts, which is a major improvement on his 48.2% success rate over the last two regular seasons combined.
NBA Bet Pro currently has the 27-year-old projected for 37.7 minutes and 13.73 points. The math has him falling below 16-point threshold nearly 58% of the time, and with this prop priced at -120 at BetMGM, this play projects out to a decent 4.2% expected ROI.
Keep in mind that, with only one NBA matchup today, finding major value is unlikely, so consider using bonus bets and boosters to aid in the quest to remain profitable.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
When you start to build your DFS lineups, be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows at 6:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Underdog Fantasy – new users, use this link receive a first deposit match up to $100.
