NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Tre Jones in a Smash Spot (March 21)

Once again, tonight’s slate is packed with injury question marks, so you must do your homework and stay on top of the news. Be sure to check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to gain insight into how breaking news can impact the slate. Additionally, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are valuable tools that can aid you in making NBA DFS picks and building strong lineups that have the potential to outperform your competition. Tonight, they recommend targeting Tre Jones.

NBA DFS Projections & Optimizer Picks Today | March 21

High-End Tier

Trae Young ($9,600) has the highest projection on the slate and is a great point-per-dollar option, as the Hawks will be without Dejounte Murray in a matchup with a Pistons team with the third-worst defensive rating in the league. Young is projected for 42% ownership with a 54% chance of booming and a 35% chance of optimality, per the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool.

Domantas Sabonis ($10,400) has a nice leverage score despite a tough matchup with the Celtics. He is also stuck playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back. Sabonis is projected for just 3% ownership with a 14% chance of booming and a 5% chance of being optimal.


Tre Jones ($5,600) has great value and leverage scores for a Spurs team that won’t have Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Zach Collins, Jeremy Sochan, Charles Bassey, Khem Birch, and possibly Devonte’ Graham against the Pelicans. Jones is projected for 13% ownership with a 26% chance of booming and a 22% chance of optimality.

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,600) has played more than 30 minutes in back-to-back games and gets a great matchup with a Spurs team ranked last in the league in defensive rating. Valanciunas is projected for 13% ownership with a 32% chance of booming and a 19% chance of optimality.

Brooklyn’s Cameron Johnson ($6,400) does not have a great value score but has a great leverage score. He finds himself in a tough matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers but is projected for 5% ownership with a 10% chance of booming and a 12% chance of optimality.

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Value Tier

Keita Bates-Diop ($3,700) has the highest value score on the entire slate for the depleted Spurs. Bates-Diop is projected for 59% ownership with a 40% chance of booming and a 49% chance of optimality.

Another San Antonio reserve, Sandro Mamukelashvili ($4,200) is likely to start and play extra minutes. Mamukelashvili is projected for 48% ownership with a 24% chance of booming and a 21% chance of optimality.

Gorgui Dieng ($3,100) has the highest leverage score on the slate as Mamukelashvili’s likely backup. Dieng is projected for just 7% ownership with a 15% chance of booming and an 18% chance of optimality.

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Neil Orfield
Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

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