Sunday’s NBA action wraps up the weekend with a four-game main slate locking at 6 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Joel Embiid, who is making a strong case to win his first NBA MVP Award.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Sunday, March 12
Core Play of the Day — Joel Embiid: Philadelphia 76ers-Washington Wizards
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 55.89 | FanDuel: 55.19
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 17.0% | FanDuel: 14.5%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $12,000
Philadelphia last played on Friday and does not take the court again until Wednesday, which means Joel Embiid should be relatively fresh for this point of the season. The only knock against Embiid is that he is rebounding at his lowest rate in the last six seasons, with just 10.1 per game. However, he is back atop the scoring leaderboard with a career-best 33.4 points per game and a chance to win that crown for a second consecutive season.
This is a cherry matchup for the Cameroonian, as the Wizards do not have much hope of slowing him down. In four of his last six games against Washington, Embiid has produced 58 or more fantasy points. If for any reason he gets tonight off — hey, wacky things happen on NBA Sundays — Anthony Davis is a perfect pivot and, of course, James Harden will see an elevated usage rate as well.
Portland Trail Blazers-New Orleans Pelicans
Tonight is the sixth and final stop of the Trail Blazers’ East Coast swing, and they have a chance to wrap things up with a 3-3 record over the last 10 days if they can best New Orleans. Damian Lillard is dealing with a sore calf, but he is expected to play tonight. Jusuf Nurkic has now played two games after missing five weeks with his own calf injury, and he has seen his minutes tick up from 17 to 25, so he should be in line for his typical 26 to 28 minutes of action tonight.
Anfernee Simons is also back after missing seven of eight games with a sprained ankle. He started and played 29.3 minutes on Friday, leading the team with 34 points in a narrow loss to the 76ers in Philadelphia. Each member of this trio is a viable tournament option on FanDuel, and they are borderline core plays on DraftKings, where the salary algorithm has already taken into account everyone being back at full health.
Jerami Grant has been flashing a steady all-around game, with 38 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games. Trendon Watford has fallen out of the rotation with Nurkic back, but Drew Eubanks is a viable discount dandy who stands out on DraftKings ($3,500) with a near-minimum salary, as well as on FanDuel ($4,800), where he has power forward eligibility. Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle are tournament long shots who have seen their offensive opportunities plummet with the Blazers back to full health.
This is a back-to-back for the Pelicans, who lost 110-96 to Oklahoma City on Saturday night. Brandon Ingram was sidelined with an ankle issue, and he is a game-time decision tonight. If he remains out, CJ McCollum is a terrific option in a matchup against his former team. Larry Nance Jr. is out for at least another week, so Jonas Valanciunas in theory should mark the same minutes as Nurkic. Valanciunas has been in a funk the last two games, managing to log only 25 minutes despite starting, with a whopping eight turnovers and five fouls. If he has worked his way back into the good graces of coach Willie Green, this is a matchup that could see him flirt with his 40-fantasy-point upside.
Herbert Jones had a disastrous game on Saturday, managing to play just 18 minutes after picking up five fouls. That is less than half of his usual playing time, so look for a bounce back tonight. Naji Marshall, Trey Murphy III, Josh Richardson and Jaxon Hayes are tournament differentiators, though their utility varies by DFS site based on salaries and positional eligibility.
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Delon Wright is an intriguing option in the betting market tonight, with a 1.5 steals prop. This season, the eight-year veteran is averaging 2.2 steals per game in 24.4 minutes, mostly coming off the bench. In his last dozen games, he has multiple steals in 10 of them, including three or more on seven occasions.
NBA Bet Pro has Wright projected for 28.1 minutes and 2.4 steals. This gives the journeyman a 58% probability of nabbing two steals to surpass tonight’s milestone. Currently, this wager has a price of -105 at BetMGM, which works out to an astounding 14% expected ROI.
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Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is unlikely to play tonight, as the team has said it plans on holding him out on back-to-backs for the remainder of the season. Second-year phenom Josh Giddey played a reasonable 32.7 minutes last night, so he should be in line for a similar workload tonight. We can never trust the rotations of coach Mark Daigneault, though it was good to see that he stuck with the starting five coming out of halftime and gave heavy minutes to Luguentz Dort (37.8), Jalen Williams (36.5) and key reserve Isaiah Joe (28.4). Joe started two of the last three games where Gilgeous-Alexander was out, though even if he is coming off the bench, he should approach 30 minutes tonight and is a strong option.
Ousmane Dieng, Jaylin Williams, Dario Saric, Tre Mann and Aaron Wiggins will all see an uptick with SGA on the sidelines. This is also the order of preference with which to target this group, who would not even be worth mentioning if this were a larger slate.
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Break one off for the Spurs, who have won three of their last five games after suffering the ignominy of a 16-game losing streak. San Antonio is one of three teams already eliminated from the postseason and, as such, should easily end up with a bottom-three record and the most lottery chances, along with Houston and Detroit.
This should be a spirited affair tonight, as San Antonio has a safe five-game cushion in the lottery odds over Charlotte and the Thunder control their postseason destiny, sitting half a game out of the Play-In Tournament and just 2.5 games away from the sixth-best record in the Western Conference. Keldon Johnson (foot) and Jeremy Sochan (knee) are currently listed as questionable, and with this being a Sunday game in mid-March, it would not be a surprise to see one of these players out or another random player scratched later this afternoon.
Check out the Stokastic Live Before Lock show at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for updated analysis based on the yet-to-be-released injury report.
New York Knicks-Los Angeles Lakers
The Knicks lost to the Clippers 106-95 yesterday afternoon, marking their third straight loss since last Sunday’s amazing double-overtime win in Boston. This is also their fifth game in eight days, so hopefully the players did not stay out too late enjoying the Los Angeles nightlife. Jalen Brunson has missed three of the last four games with a foot injury, and he is going to test things out in warmups before getting a green light to play. If he is in, we should assume he is a full-go, and, of course, with this being the West Coast nightcap, his questionable status is likely to have him underrepresented in tournaments.
Immanuel Quickley is a neutral option if Brunson is in and a tremendous option if he is out. Julius Randle has been in a horrible slump the last three games, sinking just 18 of 63 (28.6%) of his field goal attempts. On the bright side, he has attempted 22 or more shots in four of the last five games, so when his touch returns, he easily could pop off for 50 fantasy points.
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Anthony Davis was disappointing on Friday, with just over 30 fantasy points in 33 minutes. The bench unit rallied the team back from a 12-point deficit in the late third and early fourth quarters with Davis watching from the sidelines. He did return to play the final 5:52 but was just 1-for-2 from the field, with a single rebound. Ideally this was just a blip on the radar, as Davis had dropped 60 or more fantasy points in four of the five games preceding this dud.
Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroder are solid options off the bench, particularly on DraftKings. Jarred Vanderbilt is always infuriating since he rarely takes more than a handful of shots per game, but at least he makes most of them, as they are putbacks and fastbreak dunks. D’Angelo Russell is a fine tournament option who has the ability to cruise to 50 fantasy points or falter and barely crack half that number. In the absence of LeBron James, he is the second scoring option and has yet to meet a shot that he did not like.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today
Tonight’s action is spread out, with one game at 6 p.m. ET, two at 7 p.m. ET and then the final game getting under way two hours later. That means we will need to remember to keep tabs on any silliness in Los Angeles to avoid any lineups with holes.
Get ready for the slate with all of the latest analysis and information by tuning in to the Stokastic Live Before Lock show at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by No House Advantage.