NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Holiday, Knueppel and Cavaliers! (Nov. 12)

Wednesday marks the middle of the work week with the NBA fun beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including Jrue Holiday, Kon Knueppel and plenty of Cleveland Cavaliers. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, November 12

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

The 35-year-old will likely slide back 8% to 10% as the season progresses, though that is not a concern for tonight. New Orleans has the third-worst defensive efficiency rating this season, allowing 120.5 points per 100 possessions, and the squad is a tick below league average for pace. Portland is playing at the second-fastest pace in the league, with 105.4 possessions per 48 minutes.

Holiday is a nice foundational play who is in the sweet spot on the salary list where he is clearly not a discount dandy, though his fantasy point-per-dollar ratio and median projected fantasy points keeps him from the top tier. Deni Avdija is seeing about half the popularity of Holiday on the blue site, but he is ahead of his teammate on DraftKings. The former Washington Wizard tallied 55-plus fantasy points in two of his last three games and 40 or more across the last four games.

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LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller are both out, leaving Miles Bridges, Collin Sexton and Tre Mann as the main contributors with NBA chops. When healthy (key qualifier), Ball averages around 24 points per game, and Miller averaged 21.0 in 27 starts last season prior to his injury.

Looking at the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool, Knueppel is currently overrepresented in tournaments by around 5% on both DraftKings and 8% on FanDuel. This does not mean he is a bad play; it just means that with his increasing salary, he is going to need to reach 40 fantasy points again tonight to make his supporters happy.

To the surprise of no one, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only other player from this matchup who projects for double-digit popularity, trailing a passel of Cleveland reserves on DraftKings, with a couple other players ahead of him on FanDuel.

The Cavaliers elected to rest pretty much everyone for some South Beach fun as the team heads back to Cleveland tonight to host the Toronto Raptors tomorrow. Darius Garland (toe), Max Strus (foot) and Jaylon Tyson (concussion) are injured, with Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley ruled out yesterday for rest. Lonzo Ball is not playing on back-to-backs, though he is not on the injury report, and Jarrett Allen is not at this time either. That could change, however. Clearly, the Cavs will be a wealth of value tonight once the dust settles and the starting lineup is posted.

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• How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
• How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
• NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
• NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
• NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
• NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy

James Harden is coming off a triple-double in the last game, though in the preceding contest he had 13 points, no rebounds, 13 assists and a steal against Phoenix. Harden is in his age-36 season, and while he had a resurgence last year and topped that production level through the first nine games he played this year, there will be inconsistent individual games. The Beard is one of the 10 most popular players for the FanDuel featured slate, even with his lofty $9,200 salary.

Kawhi Leonard remains out, so the expectation is that John Collins will stick with the first five. Bradley Beal is also out, which frees up minutes and opportunities for the back of the rotation. Since the start of last season, Harden produced just under 1.2 fantasy points per minute alongside Leonard, with nearly a 12% increase in his per-minute production when Leonard was out.

Collins was a little disappointing in the last game, though he is still desirable at $5,100 on FanDuel. Nikola Jokic can break any slate, but with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon returning last night, there are more players to carry the load. Murray played 37 minutes and Gordon saw 30 as Jokic propelled the team to a 122-108 victory with a 35-15-7 stat line in 33 minutes of run. Heading into the final frame, the Nuggets were leading by 3 points before the reserves, along with Murray, broke the game open on the strength of a 21-5 run in the first seven minutes. The starters, aside from Cameron Johnson, closed things out over the last five minutes, but the team was in maintenance mode with the sizeable cushion.

Kristaps Porzingis ($6,800) looks intriguing on FanDuel as Atlanta plays in Sacramento, as does Domantas Sabonis (8,300), and both post players have PF/C eligibility. Sabonis dealt with a hamstring issue early this season and he missed two games last week due to sore ribs. He played 25.6 minutes last night and just shy of 30 minutes on Sunday, averaging 19.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 0.5 steals. Nickeil Alexander-Walker missed the last three games with a lower back injury, though he is questionable for tonight. If he remains out, then Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher will have more DFS appeal, as would Onyeka Okongwu if he draws a start. Otherwise it is only Porzingis for FanDuel.

Across any of the teams that played last night, there is always a chance someone sits on a back-to-back, which could help elevate a player or two on the late slate into prominence for the featured contests.

Both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed in depth tonight, so sure to tune into Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!

Golden State is on a back-to-back, having lost 126-102 in Oklahoma City. The game was out of hand early, leading to coach Steve Kerr shelving his starters midway through the third quarter, with Jonathan Kuminga leading the first five at 24 minutes. Stephen Curry played just under 20 minutes, picking up five fouls, along with the first flagrant of his career. The best shooter of all time was 4-for-13 (31%) from the field, and he looked rusty after missing as week due to illness. Tonight the Dubs will be in San Antonio with an 8:00 p.m. ET tip off, though no individual player currently stands out.

Oklahoma City is hosting the Los Angeles Lakers for the featured ESPN game, but Ajay Mitchell is the only standout as someone to roster on the blue site. However, it would be a surprise if he is on more than 15% to 20% of all tournament rosters with his $6,300 salary now at an appropriate level for his starting role, and with so many other potential discount dandies yet to be revealed as the injury reports are released throughout this afternoon.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Nikola Jokic to have fewer than 49.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Jokic is currently listed at +120 on Hard Rock for under 49.5 PRA, which works out to a tremendous 10.8% expected ROI when compared to the -101 “true odds.” By comparison, DraftKings is at -116 for under 49.5 PRA, which is a NEGATIVE 6% expected ROI. This wager is likely to disappear quickly on Hard Rock, though the under 51.5 PRA at -110 on BetMGM, Borgata and Sports Interaction is playable.

This highlights the top-down approach employed by Portfolio EV to identify which sportsbooks stepped out of line with their odds. Jokic projects for just over 46 PRA if everyone plays as expected for Denver, and he exceeded 50 PRA in five of his 10 games this season.

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