NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: NBA Cup Knockout Round! (Dec. 9)

Tuesday’s NBA Cup action tips off at 6 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including potential core plays such as Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black, along with tournament targets like Immanuel Quickley and more! These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Tuesday, December 9

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Both teams are playing fast as the Heat averaged 104.3 possessions per 48 minutes in this timeframe, leading the league. Orlando was right behind in fourth place with a 102.3 pace. This matchup projects for nearly 10 more points than the second game, which will have gamers likely leaning to the Florida teams.

Franz Wagner suffered a high left ankle sprain in the last game, and he is expected to miss the rest of December. This comes right after Paolo Banchero missed 10 games with a strained groin. The Magic did have a 7-3 record in those games, so there is hope he can ramp up his minutes to cover for Wagner. Prior to his injury, Banchero was playing 34 to 36 minutes per game, so it will be interesting to see where he lands tonight. In his first two games back, he played 20.2 and 24.5, so something in the 28- to 30-minute range is a reasonable expectation tonight, with room for more dependent on how he feels.

Desmond Bane played well without Banchero since the former Memphis Grizzly was able to get more usage and field goal attempts. He slipped back to being the third wheel over the last couple of games, but with Wagner out, he should push for at least a 25% usage rate and play 35 to 36 minutes. Jalen Suggs is terrific when healthy (see the trend) from an on-court perspective. He has a favorable salary tonight considering his heavy involvement in being the main offensive initiator, and of course, his outstanding defense gives some upside with his 1.9 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. Across the last five games, he averaged just over 30 minutes, 17.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 3.8 stocks (combined steals and blocks).

Anthony Black looks like a key building block on the main DFS sites, though he has more appeal on DraftKings ($5,400, 45.1%) than FanDuel ($6,000, 44.1%). It would not be a surprise to see his popularity see a 10% bump on both sites by the time lock rolls around. He will co-chair the offense alongside Suggs while also getting more field goal attempts with Wagner sidelined.

Wendell Carter Jr. is an interesting decision point on FanDuel, where he is expected to be the most popular center-only option. In his last eight games, he topped 28 fantasy points twice, but neither was more than 32 fantasy points, and his nadir in this period was two games ago against Miami with 17.3. Goga Bitadze would be direct leverage, though gamers need to prepare themselves for 12 to 14 minutes as a floor. Jakob Poeltl is the other intriguing center-only player on FanDuel; however, he is dealing with a sore back. He has a similar salary and projection to Carter but less than half of the projected rostership.

Tyler Herro played only five games this season, missing the start of the season with a left ankle injury and the last two games due to a sore big left toe. He is probable on the injury report and expected to play. Pelle Larsson (hip) is also probable, as is Davion Mitchell (groin). Dru Smith (hip) is the only pertinent player who has a questionable designation.

Bam Adebayo continues to be a solid contributor in his ninth NBA campaign, being a nightly 20/10 threat while also chipping in with 1.8 stocks per game. Norman Powell’s late-career resurgence is continuing in his first South Beach season, though he does take a bit of a statistical hit with Herro and Mitchell back. The same is true for Andrew Wiggins and Jaime Jaquez Jr., but the preceding seven players, along with second-year center Kel’el Ware, are all viable options to varying degrees. We know that coach Erik Spoelstra continually tinkers with his lineup during games, trying to maximize every situation. This creates a fluid rotation on a game-to-game basis, so let personal preference and risk tolerance be your guide when employing the Heat.

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When all three of Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram are healthy, things are crowded for DFS purposes. In the most recent eight games without Barrett, Ingram averaged 35.3 minutes, 22.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 0.7 stocks. Barnes was even better with 36.0 minutes, 21.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.4 stocks. This is the trio to target from Toronto, and Poeltl is the wild card at center.

Karl-Anthony Towns missed the last game due to calf soreness, and he is currently questionable on the injury report. He did practice with the team, so expectations are that he will play, but be sure to tune in to the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 4:30 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-the-minute injury reports and DFS analysis. Plus, tournament strategies for both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed.

Mikal Bridges is the most popular Knickerbocker on both DraftKings ($6,500, 39.7%) and FanDuel ($6,900, 45.6%). Josh Hart has the biggest disparity between the main DFS sites, profiling the best on FanDuel ($7,500, 41.1%), though falling by almost half on DraftKings ($7,700, 24.8%). Jalen Brunson and O.G. Anunoby are very much in play, with Jordan Clarkson and Mitchell Robinson differentiation pieces. This is all under the assumption that Towns will play tonight, but if he is out, things will be squirrely.

Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!

• How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
• How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
• NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
• NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
• NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
• NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Paolo Banchero to have fewer than 19.5 points tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Banchero is currently listed on Hard Rock at +100 for under 19.5 points, with other books using that target figure in the -110 to -127 range, which is between a NEGATIVE 2.4% and 8.2% expected ROI. Rebet is at a ridiculous -134, which is a NEGATIVE 10.3% expected ROI.

While the 3.0% expected ROI for this Hard Rock line is not going to have anyone doing cartwheels, it is a steady return, and this would also be fine as a same-game parlay leg to unlock the 30% boost today.

Let Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting, pitting the books against each other and finding the best values from a top-down betting approach.

Tonight Banchero has median projections of 28.4 minutes and 20.03 points. That is just enough to torpedo this wager, though when considering the range of outcomes, strong defense he is facing and that he is dealing with an injury, there are several paths where he could easily fall shy of this figure. In his 11 healthy games, Banchero had fewer than 20 points twice (22%), with one game of exactly 20 points. He averaged 34.7 minutes and 23.3 points in these games, so knocking off 4 or 5 minutes would have him right around 20 points.

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