NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Which Pacers and Nets Tonight?! (Nov. 29)

Saturday has a fun NBA slate, with the featured tournaments locking at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, Jay Huff, Egor Demin, Ryan Rollins and other fun decision points. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Saturday, November 29

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Bennedict Mathurin has looked a little rusty after his 11 game layoff due to a toe injury. Across his six games since returning, he has averaged 32.0 minutes of run with a sub par 42.0% conversion rate and a sedate 50.6% eFG. This has culminated in 19.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists and one stock (combined steals and blocks), with only one game over 40 fantasy points. The offensive opportunities will continue to be there for the shorthanded Pacers and this is a strong matchup, which has boosted Mathurin’s popularity, particularly on DraftKings, when compared to glancing at his game log.

Over the last 10 games, Chicago has allowed 120.5 points per 100 possessions, which is the fifth-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league, while playing at the fastest pace, with 105.9 possessions per 48 minutes during this stretch. Indiana is not far behind, ranking 10th in both categories during the same timeframe. That is the biggest driver in giving this game a 242.5 point total, with the Bulls installed as 4.0-point road favorites.

Andrew Nembhard (quad) missed last night’s game and he is questionable for today. If he is back in the starting lineup tonight, we should assume he is a full-go since there is no reason for the 3-15 Pacers to rush him back. Jarace Walker and Ben Sheppard both started last night, though in the prior game, it was Walker getting his first chance as a starter, over Sheppard. The return of Nembhard would be a hit to the DFS prospects for both players, though with this being the first game of the night – we should have all the information in hand to make an appropriate decision.

Be sure to tune in to the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:30 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-the-minute injury reports and DFS analysis. Tournament strategies for both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed.

Pascal Siakam continues chugging along and the Cameroonian is the force still keeping Indiana competitive on occasion. It has been 11 games since his last foray to the 50 fantasy point plateau, though Siakam is usually good for 40-to-45 fantasy points.

T.J. McConnell is going to be a major decision point again tonight, though he is unlikely to be as overwhelmingly popular as he was on Friday — at the time of this writing anyway. He has a $500 increase on DraftKings ($4,500, 65.1%) and a $700 price hike on FanDuel ($5,300, 44.1%). Everything broke in his favor, as it often does, with the soon to be 34-year-old converting on 7-of-9 (78%) from the field, with four rebounds, eight assists, one steal and one block in 19.3 minutes of run. This is his first back-to-back since missing the first 10 games of the season and it would be a surprise if he goes over the 22.7 minutes currently projected by the Stokastic data team. To be clear, that is a reasonable mark and if the game had not been in hand last night, McConnell likely would have logged something close to that median target.

Jay Huff is the other intriguing option for Indiana, rejoining the first five for the third time this season, with his last spot start being three weeks ago. Blocks have been his fantasy currency and the well-travelled journeyman has averaged 3.2 per tilt over his last five appearances. He also helps space the floor and chips in on the glass, plus he has power forward eligibility on DraftKings ($4,000, 53.1%), though he is the fourth most popular center-only player on FanDuel ($4,200, 15.7%).

Coby White has not played on back-to-backs, sitting out one leg in each of the two such occurrences since he made his season debut two weeks ago. The North Carolina native played in 29.2 minutes in Charlotte last night, so it will be interesting to find out his status against the Pacers. If he is not in the starting lineup, though still active, he would be a risky play. If he is out, then Ayo Dosunmu would be the biggest beneficiary, with Josh Giddey and Kevin Huerter also getting bumps. Isaac Okoro and Dalen Terry are both questionable and if either returns, it would dampen the prospects for Dosunmu and Huerter.

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Rollins leads the team with 32.6 minutes per game, trailing only Antetokounmpo for points and assists. After spending time in the G-League with Golden State, Washington and Milwaukee, Rollins finally secured more than a deep reserve role with the Bucks last year after Damian Lillard was hurt. This year he has been outstanding with 18.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.0 stocks, looking like a league-winner in season long formats.

Kyle Kuzma is a secondary target on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with Gary Trent Jr. getting a nod on DraftKings. If Antetokounmpo plays, none of the Bucks are particularly appealing since salaries have adjusted for the two-time MVP’s recent absence.

Michael Porter Jr. (back) missed his first game of the season, though if he starts tonight, he is a fine tournament option. Rookie point guard Egor Demin is a discount dandy, though head coach Jordi Fernandez has been quick to curtail his minutes when he disappoints. The 19-year-old has been solid across the last five games, averaging 27.6 minutes and 11.8 field goal attempts, with 12.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.4 stocks. In the two games preceding this run, he played 18.2 and 19.7 minutes, despite starting. Caveat Emptor!

Noah Clowney and Nicolas Claxton are fine plays to sprinkle across lineups, with Terance Mann, Tyrese Martin, Ziaire Williams and Drake Powell lottery tickets if Porter sits again.

Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!

• How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
• How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
• NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
• NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
• NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
• NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy

Anthony Davis has been ruled out and the Mavericks are also without Dereck Lively II. There is no defensive stopper who is capable of containing the savvy Harden, though Max Christie, Brandon Williams and rookie Cooper Flagg will all get their chances. Harden is averaging 27.6 points per game, which is nearly five more than last year and his highest mark since leading the league with 34.3, back in the pre-Pandemic season. He is also handing out 8.6 helpers, ranking fifth overall, adding 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 stocks.

Kawhi Leonard should play tonight, though he does not have much of an adverse impact to Harden’s DFS production, giving The Beard another scorer to pass to and drawing defensive attention. It does make it more difficult for Harden to reach his ceiling, but that should not dissuade anyone from considering the future Hall of Famer on FanDuel tonight.

Ivica Zubac should feast against the anemic Dallas frontcourt, with Daniel Gafford unlikely to play more than 25-to-27 minutes and P.J. Washington undersized against traditional centers. John Collins is also in play, particularly with power forward eligibility, as coach Tyronn Lue has become more amicable to considering him for backup minutes over Brook Lopez, when Zubac is off the court.

From the Dallas side, Washington, Flagg and Williams are the trio to target, with Ryan Nembhard in the mix as a lottery ticket, if he remains in the first five.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Egor Demin to have less than 9.5 rebounds + assists (RA) tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Demin is currently listed at Hard Rock at -115 for under 9.5 RA, with the other operators split between a -135 line or dropping the threshold down to 8.5 RA, with just under “even money” — further boosting the appeal of Hard Rock. This wager has a steady 4.3% positive ROI, though that drops to NEGATIVE 4.4% for the books offering -101 for under 8.5 RA, with FanDuel a punitive minus-6.1% at -104. Let Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting, pitting the books against each other and finding the best values from a top-down betting approach.

In his last four games with Michael Porter Jr., Demin is averaging 8.3 RA, with one game of more than nine. This wager is likely to come down to the wire, though the math is on our side for the current Hard Rock opportunity.

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