NBA DFS Picks: Will Jimmy Butler Reignite Miami's Playoff Hopes? (May 6)

Saturday’s NBA slate is the second leg of a six-day passel of two-game slates. The action tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis, LeBron James and more.

NBA DFS Picks Today: Saturday, May 6

Core Play of the Day — Jimmy Butler: Miami Heat-New York Knicks

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 44.74 | FanDuel: 45.36
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 31.5% | FanDuel: 33.2%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $10,200

Jimmy Butler missed Game 2, so he has now had six days to rest and rehabilitate his ailing ankle. Miami lost 111-105 without him, but the Heat did bank a Game 1 win, so the series is all tied up. If the game remains close as expected with the Heat a 4.5-point home favorite, we can expect 40 minutes from Butler, and that should be enough time for him to flirt with 50 fantasy points if he is close to full health.

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Keep in mind that Tyler Herro (hand) is out for at least the remainder of this series and that Victor Oladipo is done for the year. This helps consolidate projected production with Kyle Lowry looking like a strong play on both FanDuel and DraftKings along with Bam Adebayo on FanDuel.

Coach Erik Spoelstra will be mixing and matching the rest of his players like a mad scientist, and that chaos presents opportunities for Kevin Love, Caleb Martin, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent to play their way into more court time.

Julius Randle: New York Knicks-Miami Heat

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 39.29 | FanDuel: 36.82
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 43.8% | FanDuel: 20.6%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,600

After scuffling in the final three games of the first round, Julius Randle sat out Game 1 of this series to rest his sprained left ankle. In Game 2 he was firing on all cylinders with 25 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists in 38 minutes. Hopefully, this portends future fantasy production, as the 28-year-old forward is going to have to bring his A-game to keep the Knicks afloat in this series.

Josh Hart is likely to remain in the starting lineup over Quentin Grimes and should have a path to minutes in the high-30s. Jalen Brunson will have the ball in his hands on nearly every possession. This is crucial, as he has been very scoring-dependent for his fantasy production in the postseason.

Mitchell Robinson is a wild card as fouls cap his upside potential and he is mostly focused on defense with only the occasional bucket. Double-digit rebounds are in the forecast, and if he can get a couple of blocks, he could find himself carrying teams up the leaderboard on FanDuel where blocks and steals are each worth three fantasy points.

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Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities

Adebayo is able to contribute across the box score, and tonight we can target his 28.5 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) prop. Across seven playoff games, the 25-year-old is averaging 33.3 minutes and 16.9 points, 8.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists for 30 PRA.

Even accounting for the slower pace and lower game total, NBA Bet Pro currently has Adebayo projected for 35.6 minutes, 20.26 points, 9.06 rebounds and 3.08 assists, good for 34 PRA.

This wager has a 54% expected success rate, and the over currently costs only -104 at BetMGM. This play projects out to a stellar 6.8% expected ROI.

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Stephen Curry: Golden State Warriors-Los Angeles Lakers

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 50.27 | FanDuel: 47.25
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 26.4% | FanDuel: 37.4%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $9,900

Golden State recovered after fumbling Game 1, and Stephen Curry propelled the Warriors to a convincing 127-100 victory with 20 points, four rebounds, 12 assists and a steal in just 30 minutes. It was such a drubbing that coach Darvin Ham and the Lakers waved the white flag by emptying the bench for the entire fourth quarter. Tonight should be a nip-and-tuck affair with Los Angeles currently projecting as three-point home favorites. Curry can pile up the fantasy points in a myriad of ways and if he is on the court for 35-plus minutes, he will make another foray to the 50 fantasy point plateau.

Kevon Looney came off the bench on Thursday as he was dealing with an illness. He still managed six points and eight rebounds in 12 minutes, which was right in line with his per-minute production. He should be back in the starting lineup tonight, and while he has a median fantasy projection in the mid-to-upper 20s on both DraftKings and FanDuel, we know he has 40 fantasy point upside. He has already recorded four games with at least 20 rebounds this postseason.

Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole will absorb most of the remaining minutes and opportunities. However, Donte DiVincenzo, Gary Payton II and JaMychal Green are viable punt plays with each being under $4,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Their most likely path to success would be via a lopsided game, so it makes sense to limit rosters to only one of each unless building for a reserve-filled fourth-quarter scenario.

Los Angeles Lakers

Anthony Davis and LeBron James slot in right next to Curry as the players most likely to surpass 50 fantasy points today. We saw the Lakers throw in the towel early on Thursday, which remains a risk with this veteran team, as it is a savvy move to save their legs and energy for a new game rather than a lost cause.

Austin Reaves is projecting well from a fantasy point-per-dollar perspective, and the Stokastic models currently have him listed as the most popular option across the main DFS sites. Though he knows his place in the offense, he still should see double-digit field goal attempts and can chip in enough with various peripheral stats that still has a realistic chance at 30 fantasy points.

Dennis Schroder was on pace for another 30 minutes off the bench before the game got out of hand. It looks like he will find his way on the court as one of the better on-ball defenders, and while he won’t lock down Curry or Thompson, he can at least make them work for their opportunities.

While Rui Hachimura is not the direct backup for Jarred Vanderbilt as they do see time together, their respective fortunes are inversely correlated and both have merit in tournaments, though it makes sense to set a limit of one per roster.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Both series are tied up at one-game each as they head to new cities. There are no injury situations, but as we have seen this postseason — oddities can come out of nowhere at any time.

Be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Underdog — new customers sign up by going through this link and r an initial deposit match up to $100.

Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].