NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: No One Better in Tough Matchups Than Joel Embiid (March 15)

Once again, tonight’s slate is packed with injury question mark, so (as usual) it is important to stay on top of the news. Be sure to check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to gain insight into how breaking news can impact the slate. Additionally, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are valuable tools that can aid in building strong DFS lineups that have potential to outperform the competition.

NBA DFS Projections & Optimizer Plays Today

High-End Tier

Joel Embiid ($11,400) has the highest projection on the slate despite a tough matchup with the Cavaliers, made somewhat easier by the absence of Jarrett Allen. Embiid is projected for 12% ownership, a 22% chance of booming and 13% chance of being optimal, according to the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool.

Stephen Curry ($10,500) has a nice leverage score against the Clippers, as he’s projected for just 3% ownership, an 11% chance of booming and 6% chance of being optimal.


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Mid-Tier

Jaden Hardy ($5,500) may have to shoulder a big offensive load for the Mavericks tonight, as Luka Doncic is out, Kyrie Irving is doubtful, and Tim Hardaway Jr. and Christian Wood are both questionable. Hardy is projected for 68% ownership, a 52% chance of booming and 48% chance of being optimal.

Rui Hachimura ($4,500) should see a bump in minutes and usage with Anthony Davis out tonight against a Rockets team that has the second-worst defensive rating in the league. Hachimura is projected for 18% ownership, a 16% chance of booming and 18% chance of being optimal.

KJ Martin Jr. ($5,200) is a nice point-per-dollar play who will only get better if Alperen Sengun, listed as questionable, is ultimately ruled out. Martin is projected for 15% ownership, a 17% chance of booming and 17% chance of being optimal.

Value Tier

Sandro Mamukelashvili ($3,100) currently has the best value score on the entire slate with Zach Collins, Charles Bassey, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham, and Devin Vassell ruled out for a nice matchup against the Mavericks. Mamukelashvili is projected for 71% ownership, a 36% chance of booming and 30% chance of being optimal.

Gorgui Dieng ($3,000) currently has the best leverage score on the slate and looks like a great pivot off of Mamukelashvili. Dieng is projected for sub-1% ownership, a 24% chance of booming and 18% chance of being optimal.

McKinley Wright ($3,500) has great value and leverage scores. Wright is projected for 14% ownership, a 19% chance of booming and 25% chance of being optimal.

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Author
Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

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