NBA Player Props: Doesn't Project as Donovan Mitchell's Day (March 26)

Sunday’s main slate has one game that is dominating the top of the NBA Bet Pro board: Rockets-Cavaliers. Specifically, one star player from this game holds a couple of the top spots when it comes to +EV bets, and there are four NBA player props from this game pulling at least a 6% ROI. Let’s take a look at the top three NBA player props on NBA Bet Pro for Sunday, March 26.

Keep in mind that these bets cover just the main slate of games, omitting those that tip at 1 and 3:30 p.m. ET. One of the best props of the day comes from that set of games, so make sure to subscribe to NBA Bet Pro and get those bets in as well!

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | March 26

3. Donovan Mitchell Under 27.5 Points (-120, PointsBet)

Mitchell’s points + assists + rebounds under is also pulling a 6% EV at the moment, and his unders are the driving force of value — not just in this game, but on the whole slate. NBA Bet Pro does not see this Rockets-Cavaliers matchup as a great source of offense for either team, to be frank. Though this is a pace-up spot for the Cavaliers and Houston has one of the league’s worst defenses, Mitchell has been extremely up and down on this 27.5 points total of late. He is coming off back-to-back 31-point games and has two 40-pointers in the last three weeks, but sandwiched in between those four overs are an equal number of unders.

With this game total middling (225.5 to 226.5) and Darius Garland projecting much better, NBA Bet Pro is giving Mitchell’s scoring under a 58% win rate, projecting him for just 21.7 points.

2. Jalen Green Under 3.5 Assists (-132, BetRivers)

Green gets the opposite end of the pace discrepancy, facing a Cavaliers team that has been dead last in that category all season. Plus, Cleveland is first in defensive efficiency and will have its fall lineup healthy tonight. Houston projects to run the offense through Kevin Porter Jr. and Alperen Sengun, with Green instead contributing via scoring, as NBA Bet Pro has him for just under 22 points tonight. He is averaging only 3.2 assists but 23 points in March, so look for that to continue against the Cavaliers — the under on 3.5 assists has a 60% win rate, the best among these three bets.

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1. Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 3-Pointers (+106, BetRivers)

The best +EV NBA player prop of the day goes back to Mitchell, and for much of the same reasoning as above. This game projects more in Garland’s favor, though he too projects under 3.5 3’s. Mitchell is only slated for 2.4 makes from deep, and he has stayed under 3.5 3-pointers in six of his last nine games (37 of 63 on the season). So even though his season average is right at this line, NBA Bet Pro does not like this game environment for Mitchell and projects him to fall shy of 3.5 more often than not.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.