With Miami stealing a win in Denver, NBA Finals Game 3 is now quite the high-stakes matchup. The Nuggets need a rebound fast, and this game is pulling some great value for NBA PrizePicks. Let’s turn to Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro to discover the best plays again on PrizePicks, including the regressing Jimmy Butler getting his first crack at the Nuggets in front of his home crowd.
Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro lets you sort by the win percentage column to see the greatest difference between the projection set by PrizePicks and Stokastic’s projections. Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks.
NBA Player PrizePicks | June 7
Michael Porter Jr. Less Than 13.0 Field Goal Attempts
Porter has not been good in the first two games, and the Nuggets need him to be better to feel good about this series. If he were simply missing shots, this projection would not be as much of a concern — he would still keep taking shots whether he is making or missing them. The problem is that Porter looked completely lost on defense in Game 2. Mike Malone would stick with Porter if he were just missing shots, but the defensive lapses could lead to Malone turning to Bruce Brown more than he has in prior games.
There is a lot of downside with Porter today for that reason, and the projection of 13 shots is largely dependent on his playing time. Stokastic has him projected for 9.4 field goal attempts. And even if that is pessimistic and he should be getting a couple more minutes and shots than that projection, Porter would still fall below 13 shots. He could get hot early, as he has at times this season, but anything negative from him early on could result in a lot of time on the bench and comfortable win on the less play here.
Jimmy Butler More Than 25.5 Points
Back in Miami, Butler is projecting for 41 minutes and 30 real points on Stokastic, and PrizePicks only has him at 25.5. To be honest, Butler has not exploded in this series like he did at earlier points in the playoffs, but there is going to be a game where he is hitting his mid-range jumpers and getting to the free-throw line. Playing for that to happen tonight has a lot of merit.
This projection underrepresents Butler’s impact in front of the Miami crowd, and this seems like a spot where he gets back into that high-20s, low-30s range for scoring.
These are just two of the +EV plays on the NBA PrizePicks slate. Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro has 16 more plays with more than a 50% expected win rate! Check them out HERE.
