The NFL DFS Week 11 slate might be the most wide open we’ve seen all year. The latest Stokastic Sims reveal a slate built around balance with a deep pool of efficient mid-range plays and low-cost correlation stacks that keep showing up in the top simulated lineups. After running thousands of DraftKings simulations, the top 150 lineups (each with at least three unique players) point to an intriguing mix of value quarterbacks, workhorse running backs and consistent wide receiver targets that are shaping this week’s winning NFL DFS picks.
NFL DFS Week 11 Picks: Best Stacks and Leverage Plays from Sims
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Quarterbacks: Value Tier Rules Again
It’s another week where the mid-range and backup QBs carry real weight in the Sims.
- J.J. McCarthy (22 lineups): Top overall exposure, the Sims’ favorite value play with efficiency and mobility in a low-salary range.
- Davis Mills (20): Popping in balanced builds, giving salary relief with viable stacking partners.
- Jacoby Brissett (16) and Aaron Rodgers (16): Veteran QBs appearing as low-owned pivots in condensed passing games.
- Matthew Stafford (14) and Michael Penix Jr. (12): Correlated options in strong game environments.
Running Backs: Jaylen Warren Dominates
The Sims were emphatic here: Jaylen Warren (131 lineups) is the slate’s most dominant piece by far. His combination of volume, efficiency and price tag made him the most common player overall.
Behind Warren, exposure falls off to:
- Rico Dowdle (53): Still one of the top mid-tier RBs for value.
- Christian McCaffrey (44): The lone premium back maintaining a high ceiling projection.
- Chase Brown (35): Salary relief option gaining traction in value-heavy builds.
Leverage pieces like Bijan Robinson (12), Travis Etienne Jr. (8), and RJ Harvey (8) show up in contrarian Sims outcomes.
Wide Receivers: Wilson, Chase, and Nacua Lead
Receiver exposures were deep but concentrated in three core players:
- Michael Wilson (96 lineups): Huge value exposure; consistent route participation and salary relief.
- Ja’Marr Chase (75): Strong correlation with multiple mid-range stacks, still projecting as the slate’s top WR ceiling.
- Puka Nacua (58): A steady presence across builds, obviously in Stafford lineups.
The next tier included Rashee Rice (29), Drake London (22), Nico Collins (22) and D.K. Metcalf (22), all mid-range WR1s who appear as one-offs and in secondary stacks.
Want a quick look at how the Week 11 Sims are shaking out? This DraftKings NFL DFS cheat sheet gives you a snapshot of the top stacks, values and leverage plays from the latest Stokastic NFL DFS Sims run.
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Tight Ends: Pitts & McBride Take the Spotlight
Tight end exposure was tightly bunched around a few reliable names:
- Kyle Pitts (51 lineups): Clear TE1 by exposure; consistent targets and strong price-adjusted projection.
- Trey McBride (44): The other half of the TE chalk tier; elite usage at moderate ownership.
- Oronde Gadsden II (35) and Dalton Schultz (33): Mid-range values that repeatedly appear in winning stacks.
- T.J. Hockenson (21): Strong one-off leverage play against chalkier WR pairings.
Top NFL DFS Week 11 Stacks
Based on the top 150 lineups, these were the most common stack constructions:
- J.J. McCarthy + T.J. Hockenson: Budget-friendly stack allowing multiple RB studs.
- Davis Mills + Nico Collins + Dalton Schultz: Value pairing with real upside through target volume.
- Aaron Rodgers + D.K. Metcalf + Jaylen Warren: Efficient stack with high ceiling.
- Jacoby Brissett + Michael Wilson + Trey McBride: High-exposure stack that pops in low-salary builds.
One-Offs and Leverage NFL DFS Picks
- Jaylen Warren: Slate’s foundational RB, massive exposure across builds.
- Michael Wilson: Undervalued WR seeing heavy Sims correlation.
- Kyle Pitts: Dominant mid-tier TE and leverage against chalk RB constructions.
- Chase Brown: Cheap flex filler that fits both balanced and stars/scrubs builds.
