Seattle is coming off a bye week, essentially in a three-way tie atop the NFC West at 5-2, which is the same record as the Los Angeles Rams. Meanwhile the 5-3 San Francisco 49ers are half a game behind but hold the tiebreaker over the other two franchises.
Washington is currently on a three-game slide, though the Commanders should have Jayden Daniels back after he missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Seahawks-Commanders Week 9 SNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md.
NFL Sunday Night Football Week 9 DFS Picks: Seahawks-Commanders
NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000
FanDuel: $13,400
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 24.11
FanDuel: 18.61
Jaxon Smith-Njigba rightfully has the highest salary for the Sunday Night Football player pool. Arguably, he is the best fantasy receiver in the game with Puka Nacua hurt, AJ Brown languishing, and Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase saddled with subpar quarterbacks.
Even though Pete Carroll is no longer at the helm, Seattle is a run-first offense, but that is not impacting Smith-Njigba with his hefty 38.3% target share. Longtime Ram Cooper Kupp and rookie Tory Horton round out the top 3 wideouts, with the former mostly a possession receiver at this point and the latter flashing upside but also inconsistency as he hones his craft.
Over the last two games, JSN had a lofty 27 targets, while Kupp and Horton had four each. Jake Bobo will appear on the screen now and then, though he has only two targets this season, with one in the last three games.
Seattle Seahawks Positional Preview
Quarterback | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
Sam Darnold has been efficient this season, averaging 250.6 yards per game (which is just inside the top 10), despite averaging only 27.4 pass attempts per game, ranking 28th among quarterbacks who have at least four starts. The journeyman has 12 touchdowns against only four interceptions while also connecting on 19 passes of at least 20 air yards, as well as boasting three games of 295 or more passing yards.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Darnold is -115 for over 237.5 passing yards, -105 for more than 5.5 rushing yards and +120 to toss at least two touchdowns. Last year, Darnold averaged 12.5 rushing yards per game, though he is down to 5.9 this year.
Considering that Washington allowed 250 or more passing yards in six of the last seven games, Darnold’s efficiency should push him towards the over on his 237.5 passing yards. Looking at Hard Rock, alternate passing yards look promising for Darnold over 249.5 (+105), over 274.5 (+190) and over 299.5 (+350).
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Running Back | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
The Seahawks have a shared backfield, with Zach Charbonnet seeing the field on 50% to 60% of the offensive sets, while the more dynamic Kenneth Walker III is relegated to a 45% snap share. Neither is particularly prolific in the passing game, with Walker at nine targets and Charbonnet seven. Walker has the four best rushing totals of105, 81, 86 and 66 yards, though his last trip to the end zone was in Week 3 when Charbonnet was injured.
Though Charbonnet had only 148 rushing yards across the last four games, he tallied four touchdowns. The only silver lining for this duo is that no other running back has stepped between the lines on offense since Week 3. Charbonnet is more appealing on FanDuel with a $2,600 discount, while DraftKings is more of a coinflip with only a $600 savings.
Washington is a bottom-5 defense against opposing running backs from a fantasy perspective, so there could be enough meat on the bone for both ball-carriers to perform well. It is worth tuning into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Tight End | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
Three different tight ends totaled 70-plus yards and a touchdown against Washington, with Jake Ferguson getting two tuddies on seven receptions, albeit for only 29 yards. The Seattle tight ends are not exactly prolific, but that has a lot to do with the low-volume passing game. AJ Barner will be on the field for around 80% of the offensive action, and he had three or more targets in five of the last six games, totaling 20 in this stretch.
Rookie Elijah Arroyo is not far behind with 16 targets over the last six games, including a season high of five in Week 7. He tends to get most of his time on the field when the team is looking to pass, while veteran Eric Saubert is the blocking tight end who joins or replaces Barner in the base sets.
Kicker | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
Jason Myers is a steady kicker, having earned two Pro Bowl nominations in his nine full seasons. Last year he was 9-for-12 (75%) from 50 or more yards, and he connected on four of his six (67%) attempts from that range this season.
Defense | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
Seattle averages just over one takeaway per tilt, while the Commanders cedes turnovers at a similar rate. Washington is in the middle of the pack with 20 quarterback sacks, and the Seahawks rank seventh at 23 on the year.
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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9: Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,600
FanDuel: $12,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 22.22
FanDuel: 21.45
Second-year signal-caller Jayden Daniels (hamstring) is expected to start tonight, and he has the best median fantasy point projection on FanDuel, ranking second on DraftKings behind Smith-Njigba with the full-PPR scoring format giving a bump to pass-catchers.
This is a rough year for Daniels, who missed three games with two different injuries. Though he has only one interception against eight aerials scores, he is yet to top 235 passing yards. He does have 211 rushing yards but just one touchdown on the ground. Terry McLaurin (quad) is out again, reaggravating his injury on Monday Night Football. The Washington running game struggles to find consistency, so Daniels is going to have to carry the load tonight as the Commanders attempt to end their three-game losing streak.
Seattle does a good job of limiting opposing passers, with only two topping 260 yards. On the flipside, the team allowed four multi-touchdown games, so they are far from impervious.
Washington Commanders Positional Preview
Running Back | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
Seattle has a stellar rushing defense, allowing only two rushing scores this season, with both coming in Week 5 from Rachaad White of Tampa. Christian McCaffrey had 69 rushing yards in the opener, which is the most by any opposing ball-carrier this season, and he, Jaylen Warren in Week 2 and White are the only backs to have more than 58 combined yards against the Seahawks.
The Commanders struggle to run the ball, trading Brian Robinson Jr. just before the start of the season and losing Austin Ekeler (Achilles) in the second game. Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt, aka Bill, is a two-down back, having seen only 11 targets this season. Veteran Jeremy McNichols took over the passing-down work, seeing a strong 13 targets in the last three games, though he has just five carries in this stretch.
The Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have Croskey-Merritt for 9.9 carries and 54.5 yards, Daniels for 10.1 and 51.1 yards, and 3.1 totes for 15 yards across the rest of the potential ballcarriers. McNichols is earmarked for 3.4 targets, while Croskey-Merritt projects for 1.7 tonight.
Wide Receivers | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
Deebo Samuel (heel) returned from a one-game absence, seeing six targets, though catching only three for 11 yards. In his last two games, he had 11 looks for seven receptions and 26 yards, along with two carries for 0 yards. Two of his three touchdowns came from Daniels, but this is otherwise a bleak year for the former San Francisco 49er. Samuel still leads the team with 49 targets, and there is plenty of time to turn his season around; however, he needs to get going quickly.
Journeyman Chris Moore did not have any looks last week, though he had five in each of the two preceding games. He is a steady presence, helping rookie Jaylin Lane and second-year man Luke McCaffrey find their way.
Among this trio, McCaffrey has the “safer” baseline, though not by enough to justify his 40%-plus premium on DraftKings. The $2,800 savings by going down to Moore ($2,200) on FanDuel is the clear path on the blue site. Ultimately, whoever manages to get a touchdown is likely to end up in the “optimal” lineup. Seattle allowed six different wideouts to find the end zone this season, so there is hope for the Commanders. McCaffrey has three touchdowns this season, with Moore notching one and Lane scored on a 90-yard punt return in Week 3.
Tight End | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
Zach Ertz leads the team with four touchdowns, and he is second at 40 targets. He developed a nice rapport with Daniels last year, so hopefully the duo can get resynched going forward. Ertz will be on the field for passing downs, though the soon-to-be 35-year-old gave way to John Bates in low-leverage situations and on running downs. Bates settled into a 50% snap share over the last month, while Ertz slid down to a 60% participation rate.
Ben Sinnott has more of a presence this year, though he has only two targets, despite being on the field for 27% of the offensive action. Bates has four targets, but three came in the last two games.
Kicker | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
This is a tough season for Matt Gay, who is 10-for-14 (71%) on his field goal attempts, missing three of seven from beyond 50 yards. Though he did not have any field goal attempts on Monday Night Football, he connected on seven of his last eight (88%) efforts while being perfect on 18 point-after-touchdown attempts. This is his first season with Washington, having spent the last five seasons as a dome kicker for the Rams and Colts.
Defense | Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9
Darnold was sacked only nine times this season, though the Commanders are in the upper third of the league with 22 quarterback takedowns. Seattle has 12 turnovers, including seven fumbles, which is the third most in the league, while Washington has just five takeaways, ahead of only the Green Bay Packers (four) and New York Jets (one).
NFL DFS Picks for Seahawks-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 9: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Seahawks-Commanders
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Easy click!
- Jayden Daniels: Tough matchup and slight health concerns; otherwise he would get top honors.
- Sam Darnold: Mr. Efficiency.
- Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet: The former has the edge on DraftKings, the latter gets the nod on FanDuel with a $2,600 discount.
- Deebo Samuel: Volume should come up with Daniels back and McLaurin out.
- Zach Ertz: Touchdown hunting.
- Jason Myers: Projectable salary saver.
- Seattle DST: Stellar 17 sacks in the last four games, two at home and two on the road.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Dreaded “decimal back” purgatory unless he scores.
- Matt Gay: Hopefully struggles are behind him.
Secondary Options
- Jeremy McNichols: Better on DraftKings with full-PPR scoring format and the $3,000 discount to JCM.
- Luke McCaffrey: Begrudgingly ahead of his fellow secondary teammates; is strong as a kickoff returner.
- Chris Moore and Jaylin Lane: Drop down from McCaffrey if salary is tight. Lane returns punts and may continue to return kickoffs over Samuel.
Lottery Tickets
- Tory Horton: Rookie could get behind the shaky secondary and be off to the races. Main punt returner; has a 95-yard touchdown to his credit.
- AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo: Discounted differentiation plays.
- Washington DST: Seahawks don’t allow much fantasy production to opposing defenses.
- John Bates, Chris Rodriguez and Ben Sinnott: Will at least see offensive snaps; opportunities are a different story with this trio projected for a combined 3.7 touches.
- George Holani and Dareke Young: Kickoff returners for Seattle; would need injuries to the starters to get offensive chances.
- Cody White, Treylon Burks, Nick Kallerup and Robbie Ouzts: DraftKings $200 minimum plays, may not be active.
