Next on the schedule following the PGA Championship is the Charles Schwab Challenge. For the 77th consecutive season, this event will take place at Colonial Country Club (par 70, 7,209 yards, bentgrass greens), and Sam Burns (-9) is the defending champion of the Charles Schwab Challenge, having defeated Scottie Scheffler in a playoff a year ago. This week’s field is a little smaller at 120 players, and there will be a normal cut for top 65 and ties following the first 36 holes, resulting in a higher percentage of the field proceeding through the cut than usual. Below are some of the top PGA DFS picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge, utilizing Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage plays for GPPs.
PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: Charles Schwab Challenge
Colonial is a tree-lined par 70 with narrow fairways and tiny greens, that is a prime example of a second-shot course. Over the last five years, four of the winners at Colonial finished the tournament top 8 in strokes gained on approach. Catching fire with the putter and being efficient on the par 4’s are also extremely important to contend. For four consecutive seasons, the golfer to win the Charles Schwab Challenge has finished the event top 7 in both strokes gained putting and par-4 efficiency.
Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament.
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Denny McCarthy
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 28th, FanDuel: 80th
Hovering around 10% expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections, McCarthy has a ton of appeal this week. He just finished 29th at the PGA Championship while gaining strokes with both his irons and putter. That marked McCarthy’s fifth top-30 in a row at standard stroke-play events, and he ranks top 10 in both par-4 efficiency and strokes gained putting over his last 50 rounds. Furthermore, McCarthy is 11th in efficiency on 400- to 450-yard par 4’s, which bodes well for a trip to Colonial since seven of its 12 par 4’s land in this range.
McCarthy finished 27th at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge and has even better upside this time around. He sits at a career-best No. 54 in the world golf rankings, which is 94 spots higher than McCarthy’s ranking heading into last season’s edition of this event.
Chris Kirk
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 38th, FanDuel: 55th
Kirk is a true course horse at Colonial, with a spotless 12-for-12 record in terms of made cuts and seven top-20 finishes. Most notably, he won at Colonial in 2015 and finished 15th here last season. On top of the undeniable resume in Fort Worth, Kirk is in the midst of an excellent season. In 18 starts, he has made 14 cuts and produced seven top-30 finishes, including a win at the Honda Classic in February.
Kirk ranks 10th in par-4 performance this season and is a must-have for GPPs, with Stokastic slating him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Matthew NeSmith
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 11th, FanDuel: 20th
NeSmith has made two of three cuts at Colonial and returns to the venue on the heels of 23rd at the PGA Championship, marking his best career finish at a major. During this start, he gained strokes in every major category, which is an impressive feat given the difficulty of Oak Hill Country Club. NeSmith has now finished no worse than 35th in three straight starts at standard stroke-play events, and he gained strokes from tee to green and on approach during all of these finishes.
In this type of form as a ball striker, NeSmith brings excellent upside relative to his cheap salaries and is a sharp target for GPPs. Stokastic is projecting him for less than 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Callum Tarren
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 25th, FanDuel: 13th
Tarren has never competed at Colonial before but is a strong fit for this venue. During his 29th-place finish at the PGA Championship last week, Tarren finished 16th in strokes gained on approach and eighth in strokes gained putting at Oak Hill Country Club, which is a par 70 with bentgrass greens like Colonial. Plus, Tarren was one of only 17 golfers to shoot under par in multiple rounds at the PGA Championship and if he had not blown up with a 9-over 79 in the third round, he would have likely found himself in contention Sunday.
Including this finish, Tarren has five top-30s and made seven cuts in 11 career starts at courses that present bentgrass greens. It’s safe to say he is at his best on this type of putting surface, and at near-minimum price tags on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and with Stokastic projecting him for essentially no ownership on either site, Tarren is an elite gamble for GPPs this week.
