UCL DFS PICKS: Do Not Fade Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland (March 14)

DraftKings UCL Soccer DFS is back on Tuesday with a two game slate featuring FC Porto vs. Inter Milan and Manchester City defending their home pitch against RB Leipzig. The 2.5 goal unders in both matches suggest that these teams are going to protect their nets. However, FC Porto needs to find a goal and Inter can’t rest on their 1-0 aggregate lead. Man City leveled their first leg of this series and hope to continue. Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez are the highest priced players, but only one warrants the DFS asking price. Let’s evaluate the UCL DFS picks to find where the value lies and which goal-hunting options to target with your UCL DFS picks.

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UCL DFS Picks & Predictions | March 14


Mehdi Taremi (DraftKings: $8,600)

Hakan Calhanoglu (DraftKings: $7,700)

Their is no favorite when FC Porto play host to Inter Milan. Leg one saw Inter take a 1-0 aggregate lead, but now FC Porto have the home field advantage. The Portugese side has allowed more goals at home, but they see a massive offensive uptick as well, with fifteen more actual goals at home than on the road.

Inter have fared better on the road offensively, with nearly four more expected goals on the year. The issue is their defense that is allowing nearly double the expected goals on the road. An early goal on either side will open up the risks taken. Should Inter find the first goal, FC Porto will need to ramp up the counter and be exploited on counters. Inter stack is a sneaky approach in GPPs for this reason.

The goal hunting option in soccer DFS for the home side is Mehdi Taremi. The chances were there for Tarmei in the first match and the heroics of Inter’s keeper kept him off the goal sheet. Look for Taremi to ramp up the attempts to help his team advance. He’s the club’s leading scorer while contributing on 35.8% of overall scoring. His output is directly tied to a goal contribution and 2.93 shots per match are matched with an on target rate of 41%. 3.41 scoring chances created per match help his upside and have led to his club leading six assists. The asking price requires a goal contribution, making Taremi a GPP only play for DraftKings soccer DFS.

Alongside Taremi is Galeno who leads the club in shot volume with 3.71 shots per match and his 5.20 scoring chances created trail only Otavio who might not see the starting eleven. Galeno is a pivot for a discount off Taremi given the salary relief that offers scoring upside and allows for stacking Manchester City pieces around. Galeno is averaging a goal contribution in over 80% of his starts for FC Porto.

The Inter Milan side fancy themselves to advance and have the talent to do so. Hakan Calhanoglu is the set piece man and is a core play with a salary that is far too low at under $8,000 on DraftKings. He sees an average 5.83 crosses per match with 1.98 shots per match. The accuracy is not there at just 25% on those attempts but the attempts count enough on DraftKings for a floor option. His value is rounded out with 2.99 won tackles and interceptions and a club leading 4.76 scoring chances created per match. Calhanoglu is a core play in all formats.

The goal hunting options of Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku would make a leverage stack paired together. Both need to find the back of the net so the floor outweighs the upside in any format outside large field GPP’s. Martinez sees 4.63 shots per match and doubles up the goal scoring of the closest teammate Edin Dzeko, with fourteen goals on the year. He is finding the back of the net on 60.86% of his starts. Martinez comes at a $500 discount form Taremi and will garner ownership over the FC Porto leading scorer. The pivot to Taremi will prove contrarian enough in DraftKings UCL DFS lineups without sacrificing the exposure to Manchester City.

Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings: $9,300)

Erling Haaland (DraftKings: $9,000)

Their will be no shortage of ownership for the Manchester City attack on this slate. They sit as a -300 favorite on the money line and they will look to pile up the goals and not see a conservative style that has led to upset exits in past years in the UCL. Erling Haaland is clearly mis priced on DraftKings. He averages over a goal per match and sits at a -188 odds to score anytime. Martinez of Inter and Taremi of FC Porto each have +250 and up odds to find the back of the net and sits less than $1,000 cheaper only on DraftKings. Haaland 3.62 shots per match which towers over the rest of the club that is fairly spread between 2-2.65 among four possible starters. Haaland has no floor and neither does Taremi and Martinez. The Norway international is a core play in all formats despite the goal dependencies.

Kevin De Bruyne joins Haaland as a core play. He leads the club with 6.36 scoring chances created and 8.56 crosses per match. The presence of Riyad Mahrez takes away the direct free kick attempt opportunities but De Bruyne does enough damage in open play. Mahrez is a GPP play only simply on his minutes not being trusted. The Manchester City side have plenty of star power off the bench with the likes of Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden. Mahrez will need to find a goal contribution before his time runs out and the floor is not strong enough with De Bruyne in the starting lineup. The final stacking option is Jack Grealish who sees a reasonable drop in asking price. His value is in drawn fouls and created chances. His upside is limited without the shot volume but the floor is high enough for a Manchester City stacking piece for DraftKings UCL lineups on Tuesday.

The RB Leipzig side offer value in their underdog role. Dani Olma would offer a floor for a GPP play but is priced out of cash consideration. A punt play is Emil Forsberg. He disappointed last time out but the price tag of $4,900 wont need much to pay off. Timo Werner is a GPP goal hunting option at $5,900. It will not take much to get over the field on Werner and his discount off Andre Silva will boost the lineup construction around. The total of the match lies around 3.5 goals and Manchester City are capable of scoring 3+ on their own. Should RB Leipzig find the back of the net a shot on Werner who managed two attempts in leg one would offer plenty of leverage on the field for DraftKings UCL DFS.

Other Options: Nicolo Barella (DraftKings: $5,700).


Federico Dimarco (DraftKings: $6,200)

Federico Dimarco was well in line to pay off his massive salary in leg 1, making him a strong UCL DFS pick on this slate. A yellow card concern led to pulling at under 60 minute mark which compounded a loss of clean sheet bonus and the negative DraftKings points for the card showing. His open play work speaks for itself at 9.50 crosses per match and 1.96 shots per match. He creates 4.34 scoring chances per match which trails only Calhanoglu on the club sheet. The importance of this match will keep Dimarco in it barring an injury or a colored red card which historically is not a realistic concern. Dimarco is a core play in all DraftKings UCL formats and makes a cash pairing with Calhanoglu.

Other Options: David Raum (DraftKings: $5,400).


Ederson (DraftKings: $5,700)

Diogo Costa (DraftKings: $4,700)

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Jovanni Vidal
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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