UFC Charlotte’s main event is Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida, but plenty of other fights look good for MMA DFS across the card. The co-main event is Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker, and the rest of the card has some good spots as well. Let’s break down the top UFC Charlotte DFS picks, with the help of Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections.
Editor Note: This post was originally published at 11:16 AM on Thursday.Â
UFC Charlotte DFS Picks: Three Awesome Prelim Targets
Salaries come from DraftKings.
Gabe Green ($8,300)
Gabe Green takes on Bryan Battle as a -135 favorite. According to Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections, Green has a 55.2% chance of winning and an 18.9% chance of earning a finish. For his price, these numbers are decent. However, this fight has the second-highest-projected pace, making this a fight to target. Both fighters are coming off a loss — Green dropped his most recent bout to Ian Garry, while Battle lost a decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov.
Green looks like the more well-rounded fighter. On the feet, he lands 6.20 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.92. Battle is slightly less aggressive, with 4.42 significant strikes per minute, but Green’s aggression should force the action here. On the ground, Green and Battle land 0.83 and 0.79 takedowns per bout, respectively. However, Battle has horrific 38% takedown defense, which should give Green an additional edge. Even in a decision, the pace of these fighters should result in a solid score.
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Natan Levy ($9,100)
Natan Levy faces off against Pete Rodriguez as a -250 favorite. While some of the other expensive fighters have a higher win percentage or a greater chance at a finish, this fight brings the highest-projected pace on the slate. That said, Levy still has a 71.3% chance to win and a 42.8% chance at a finish.
While neither fighter has had the longest run in the UFC, the stats are eye-opening. Levy lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute and an absurd 5.37 takedowns per bout. In fact, Levy has never landed fewer than two takedowns in any UFC fight, showing his incredible ability to chain wrestle. Rodriguez has never been taken down in the UFC, but both of his bouts ended in the first, with a win over Mike Jackson and a loss to Jack Della Maddalena. On the feet, Rodriguez also pushes the pace, averaging 10.37 significant strikes per minute and a negative striking ratio. Overall, Levy makes for an excellent contrarian spend in an all-action fight.
Tainara Lisboa ($7,800)
For those looking for value, look no further than the opening fight on the card. With the odds flipping throughout the week, Tainara Lisboa is a -115 favorite over Jessica-Rose Clark.
Lisboa is making her UFC debut, but this fight projects for a decent pace and Lisboa brings a 47.9% chance of winning. All of her victories have ended inside the distance, giving her a path to a bigger score. Clark projects to keep a decent pace as well, with 4.02 significant strikes per minute and 1.76 takedowns on average. Now 4-4 in the UFC, she has dropped each of her last two fights. As it stands, Lisboa looks like one of the better sub-$8,000 fighters to target on DraftKings.
As usual, five-round fights deserve close attention as well. The bout between Jailton Almeida and Jairzinho Rozenstruik is the lone five-rounder on this card. Even with Almeida a massive favorite, this fight should also be a priority on this slate. To find out more about the main event and the co-main event, check out Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections.
