Sunday Night Football is shaping up to be a fun game, as we finally have a pair of quarterbacks who can move their offenses up and down the field. Baltimore has the homefield advantage, but that should not dissuade Cincinnati from putting points on the board.
Heading into NFL Week 5 Sunday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 5 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Cincinnati Bengals at the Baltimore Ravens.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 5 Sunday Night Football
Cincinnati has three key players who are questionable tonight. Kicker Evan McPherson (groin) is expected to play after being a full participant in the final two practices of the week, though tight end Hayden Hurst (groin) did not practice on Friday and wide receiver Tee Higgins (ankle) has been limited all week. Higgins is likely to play, but there is a good chance that Hurst will sit. Backup tight end Devin Asiasi (ankle) is a game-time decision.
Baltimore has a banged-up defense and offensive line, but the only skill position players expected to be out tonight are wide receiver Rashod Bateman (foot) and running back Justice Hill (hamstring)
Cincinnati Bengals: 22.0 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic fantasy projections have Joe Burrow ranked as the QB10 this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The third-year signal-caller has thrown for at least 275 yards along with multiple touchdowns in three of the first four games this season. After a disastrous Week 1 where he threw four interceptions against Pittsburgh, Burrow has had nary a pick since. Though Burrow is nimble in the pocket, in his 30 regular season games, he has had more than 15 rushing yards just seven times. The Ravens are in the middle of the pack from a pass defense efficiency standpoint, and in two meetings last year against a VERY depleted secondary, Burrow rolled up 939 yards and seven aerial scores.
Running Back
Joe Mixon has played on 75% of the snaps this season, with Samaje Perine accounting all but six plays earmark to the other running backs. In a fun development, Mixon has been very active in the passing game. He is third on the team with 24 targets, and he has seen at least four through the first month of the season. Perine has nine targets, so he is still coming in for passing situations, but Mixon has mostly been a three-down back. Chris Evans is the only other running back to see the field, and he has one target each of the last two games. Baltimore has the 22nd rushing DVOA per Football Outsiders, so Cincinnati should find some success on the ground.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase has been amazing this season, and he has elevated his play as he is becoming one of the best receivers in the league, despite playing just 22 regular season games. Though he has not topped 85 yards since the opener, he is a threat to score from anywhere on the field and a 100-yard game is coming soon. Tee Higgins (ankle) is expected to play per a Tweet from Adam Schefter in the wee hours of the morning. Higgins brings a 12.5% discount to Chase on FanDuel, and the disparity on DraftKings is a ridiculous 34% — the Stokastic fantasy projections have Chase with a median outcome that is only 2 more points than Higgins.
Tyler Boyd continues to chug along, and he has at least five targets in three games and has chipped in with two touchdowns. Other Cincinnati wideouts have a grand total of 28 snaps over the last three weeks.
Tight End
Hayden Hurst (groin) is going to be a game-time decision and similarly backup tight end Devin Asiasi (ankle) is questionable as well. If Hurst plays, he gets a great game environment that should bring plenty of fantasy opportunities. If either player is out, Mitchell Wilcox becomes an outstanding discount dandy on DraftKings ($200) and FanDuel ($5,500) at the minimum salary. Keep in mind that he has only seen offensive snaps in four games over the last two seasons, but at a certain point the salary savings completely eliminates that concern.
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore has allowed eight sacks this season, though they have suffered only four interceptions and one fumble. Cincinnati has seven sacks and seven takeaways through four tilts. The Bengals do have the seventh-best overall DVOA and are inside the top eight against the rush and the pass, though it has not yet resulted in huge fantasy production.
Baltimore Ravens: 25.5 Points
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson tends to break the single-game format in that he typically lands on somewhere north of 90% of all rosters. On DraftKings, with the full-point-per-reception scoring system, Burrow and Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews are the only players within 7 fantasy points of Jackson; on FanDuel, with the half-PPR scoring, it is just Burrow.
Jackson has 11 passing touchdowns and another two on the ground. After Week 1, when he rushed just six times for 17 yards, the popular narrative was that he did not want to risk injury as he heads towards free agency. Of course, in the next three games he ran 31 times, including two games with more than 100 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens have a lot of defensive question marks, which has been putting pressure on the offense to roll up pinball-like scores.
Running Back
J.K. Dobbins split the backfield snaps in his two healthy games with Justice Hill. Tonight Hill is out with a hamstring injury, so journeyman Kenyan Drake is likely to be the backup and becomes a viable option on DraftKings at just $1,000. Last week, Dobbins scored the first receiving touchdown of his career while also matching his personal best of four targets and four receptions. DraftKings missed the boat by assigning him a ridiculously low salary at just $7,000, though FanDuel somewhat overshot things at $11,500. It will be interesting to see where the projected popularity lands as we get closer to kickoff.
Veteran Mike Davis will maintain his role as the third running back, with Patrick Ricard doing the heavy lifting as the blocking fullback. Ricard is interesting at just $600 on DraftKings and the over/under on his looks is around 2.5, though he should be on the field for more than half of the offensive plays. The $5,500 minimum on FanDuel is too spendy, as he would need a touchdown to provide any upside and we know he is well down the red zone pecking order.
Wide Receiver
Losing Rashod Bateman (groin) is going to leave a big hole in the Baltimore passing game, but we have seen Jackson elevate replacement-level options time and again over the years. Devin Duvernay has taken a step to becoming a regular every-down player, and he brings after-the-catch elusiveness that can be a bonus for fantasy production. Veteran Demarcus Robinson should be on the field a lot, and we know he can take one to the house at any time, though he tends to be running a lot of wind sprints and it is hard to envision more than three or four looks heading his way.
Second-year wideouts James Proche and Tylan Wallace will see action as well, though they have a combined 40 snaps this season. Both were mid-round draft picks; however, together they have totaled 16 games played and 31 targets. There is touchdown equity available, though volume of any sort is hard to project.
Tight End
Mark Andrews has been on the field for 88% of the offensive plays this season, and he leads the team with 36 targets. Rookie Isaiah Likely is intriguing, as he is on the field around 40% of the time, has shown glimpses of upside and has been praised by the coaches and his quarterback. Veteran Josh Oliver has played on as many snaps as Likely, though he has just two targets on the season, both coming in Week 3.
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore has been shaky on defense and abysmal against the run. The Ravens have just eight sacks on the season while actually leading the league with 10 takeaways. Cincinnati has allowed the third-most sacks in the league, though they have only half a dozen giveaways.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 5 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Lamar Jackson: The real question is, at what point does he move out of the top multiplier slot? Probably around lineup No. 15 on DraftKings and No. 20 on FanDuel.
- Joe Burrow: Finally two fantasy-friendly quarterbacks on an island game. Aloha!
- Mark Andrews: Everyone knows he will be targeted, but can he be stopped?
- Tee Higgins: Gets the nod over Chase for the significant savings on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Joe Mixon: Great to see him contributing in all facets of the game.
- J.K. Dobbins: Solid workload incoming as he is finally healthy.
- Ja’Marr Chase: Salary on DraftKings essentially based on two scores and 100 yards.
- Justin Tucker: Made his last nine from 50-plus and has a 67% conversion rate over the last seven seasons.
- Evan McPherson: Great name, and he is 12 of 14 from 50-plus in his 20 career games.
- James Proche: Makes everything work at $200 on DraftKings, even if he only sees two targets for no catches. Harder to sell at $5,500 on FanDuel.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Hayden Hurst: Gets to face the team that drafted him; watch for any concerns about playing time, otherwise expect him to be a full go.
- Tyler Boyd: Soooooo many options and just one football in the Cincy passing game.
- Devin Duvernay: Should see a few more opportunities with Bates out, but hard to count on more than half a dozen looks. May give up punt and kickoff return duties to Proche.
- Demarcus Robinson: Always a single-slate albatross, perhaps being on a new team will change his fortune.
- Isaiah Likely: Rookie tight end on a single-game slate with a quarterback that looks to the position. Yes Please!
Latest NFL DFS Content
- Want to Learn How to Win a DraftKings Milly Maker With Stokastic Sims? Steve Buzzard Will Tell You How
- PrizePicks, Sleeper & Underdog Cheat Sheet: Best More/Less Picks Today for NFL (February 11)
- DraftKings NFL Cheat Sheet: Super Bowl Sims Picks | George Kittle
- NFL Super Bowl 58 DFS Picks: 49ers vs. Chiefs (February 11)
- NFL DFS Captain Picks for Super Bowl 58: Rashee Rice, George Kittle & More
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Baltimore D/ST: Need a pick-six or scoop and score to be a contributing option in a higher-scoring game.
- Cincinnati D/ST: Same as above, slightly below the Ravens as the visiting team.
- Samaje Perine: Limited snaps, but still targeted when he is on the field.
- Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake: If active, Drake is the play and we can skip Davis. If he is not active, then it is Davis as the RB2.
- Tylan Wallace: Could easily be the pivot off of Proche at $200 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel.
- Mitchell Wilcox: Moves up to Hurst’s slot if the veteran is out or we get word he is limited.
- Patrick Ricard and Josh Oliver: Viable extreme punts on DraftKings and above the rest of the crowd.
- Devin Asiasi, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Mike Thomas, Trent Taylor and Chris Evans: Just say no to this motley crew, several may be inactive. Taylor returns punts for Cincinnati, while Evans handles kickoffs.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[NFLPAGE]
