The NFL schedulers have done an overhaul on the typical Thursday Night Football matchups. Sure, there are going to be some duds here and there, particularly with midseason injuries, but the new Amazon Prime broadcast deal is bringing some of the better matchups, which normally would have been tucked away on Sundays, into the prime time. Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 2 Thursday Night Football slate featuring the Chargers and Chiefs.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 2 Thursday Night Football
Los Angeles will be without wide receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring) and tight end Donald Parham (hamstring), and offensive linemen Andrew Trainer and Isaac Weaver are both on the injured reserve. Kansas City is relatively healthy, with guard Trey Smith (ankle) questionable, though Harrison Butker (ankle) is out.
Los Angeles Chargers: 25.0 Points
Quarterback
Justin Herbert will have his work cut out for him on Thursday taking on Kansas City in Arrowhead Stadium. Last year Herbert was a fantasy stalwart, leading the Chargers to a Week 3 30-24 road victory. In this matchup, he was 26 of 38 for 281 yards and four touchdowns, adding another 16 yards on the ground.
The tables were turned in Week 15, with the Chiefs getting their turn in a wild 34-28 game. In that contest, Herbert was 22 of 38 for 236 yards and a pair of aerial strikes, adding a third touchdown and 15 yards rushing. Kansas City has a subpar defense against the run and the pass, so there should be plenty of fantasy goodness for the Chargers.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler played on 49% of the snaps, with Joshua Kelly, Sony Michel and Zander Horvath each working in on 20% to 27%. The Chargers were up by 14 at halftime and by 11 at the end of the third quarter, so they were able to take it easy with Ekeler, which is smart considering there are 16 more games in the regular season. Ekeler had four targets, which tied six other players for the team lead, and he also had 14 of the 26 running back carries.
Michel is likely to be the short yardage and red zone back, with Kelley working in as the change-of-pace option for Ekeler. Zander Horvath did score a touchdown on a 1-yard catch in the second quarter, so this situation will be fluid until roles are sorted out.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen (hamstring) is out for Week 2 with the short turnaround time, but he is considered questionable for Week 3 and it looks like he could return for Week 4, depending on how he responds to treatment. The Stokastic projections are giving Mike Williams a slight edge over Joshua Palmer, with 7.99 and 6.78 targets, respectively. While Williams seemed to be invisible on Sunday, particularly after Allen went down, it is hard to envision that happening again.
DeAndre Carter looks to be the third wideout, and he is coming in with 5.90 targets, tying him with tight end Gerald Everett. Palmer and Carter are fine discount options, as they should see decent volume while still allowing gamers to work the top options onto their rosters.
Tight End
Everett had a clear target lead over Tre’ McKitty, who is getting extra work with veteran Donald Parham (hamstring) still working back from an August injury. However, both played on nearly two-thirds of the snaps. Richard Rodgers is available and played two snaps in Week 1, but he has seen the field in 20 total games over the last five seasons.
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles had six sacks in their victory over Las Vegas, along with three interceptions, though that was against Derek Carr and a shaky offensive line. In the two matchups last season, the Chargers has three sacks and three interceptions.
Kansas City Chiefs: 29.0 Points
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes was amazing in Arizona on Sunday afternoon, rolling up 360 yards and five touchdowns. It was such a rout that backup Chad Henne even got in the game for five plays. In the two regular season tilts last year, Mahomes averaged 25.5 completions and 42 attempts for 335 yards and three touchdowns in each game. That is an achievable stat line again tonight as long as the Chargers put some points on the board.
Running Back
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon each played on 27 snaps, with rookie Isiah Pacheco working in for 16 with the game out of hand. Fullback Mike Burton was in on nine plays, but he did not see the ball. Last year, he averaged just over one combined carry or target per appearance.
Pacheco led the backfield with a dozen carries for 62 yards and a score, but that was with the game well in hand. Edwards-Helaire had seven carries and three targets, scoring a pair of receiving touchdowns, and McKinnon had four carries and four targets. It looks like the pecking order is set, but we know that head coach Andy Reid can do the unexpected — remember the Derrick Gore primetime game — so this is going to be both a crowded and volatile backfield, with touchdowns coming from any of this trio.
Wide Receiver
JuJu Smith-Schuster is the clear apple of Mahomes’ eye, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the deep threat and Mecole Hardman looking like his enigmatic self, even as the most tenured member of the wide receiving corps. Hardman did get three targets, bringing in one for a 16-yard touchdown, but he is likely the third or fourth option in the passing game when considering the running backs and tight ends.
Valdes-Scantling can always catch lightning in a bottle, but it is Smith-Schuster who is going to be filling in the void left by Tyreek Hill, albeit with a different route tree.
Tight End
Travis Kelce was phenomenal, bringing in eight of his nine targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. Essentially, he is the WR1 for this team and nominally putting in work as a tight end. Jody Fortson had a 1-yard touchdown reception, and Noah Gray brought in his lone target for 10 yards. Any pass catcher is live to score with Mahomes at quarterback, but neither of these players is likely to make a fantasy splash with any sort of regularity.
Defense/Special Teams
Last year Kansas City got to Herbert for one sack and one interception in two games. They are always live for a splash play due to their offense putting pressure on other teams, which, of course, does give them some fantasy appeal in the single-game format.
Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 2 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
- Travis Kelce: Slightest of edges over the Chargers dynamic duo.
- Justin Herbert: Loss of Allen will hurt, but the 24-year-old is amazing.
- Austin Ekeler: Should be heavily involve and could see a few extra targets in the short passing game.
- Juju Smith-Schuster: Looks like this will be a bounce-back season; better in full-PPR, with Mahomes typically spreading touchdowns around from week to week.
- Josh Palmer: Discounted for WR2 role; will be battling Everett and Carter but has the familiarity edge with Herbert.
- Gerald Everett: Combination of dealing with COVID, a dinged-up quarterback and being in a new system did not help Everett in his lone season as a Seahawk. Should thrive with the Chargers, especially with Parham out.
- DeAndre Carter: On his fifth team in five seasons; played in just 61 games and was more of a return man than a receiver but has a chance at some opportunities with Allen out. Likely will return punts and share kickoff return duties with Kelly.
- Mike Williams: Though he should be WR1, his salary and Hebert’s proclivity for spreading the ball around have him a tick below his teammates.
- Tre’ McKitty: Brings everything together on DraftKings at $400; coming off four targets for three receptions and 24 yards in Week 1.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Two of his five career receiving touchdowns came on Sunday; still the lead option of a full Kansas City backfield.
- Mecole Hardman: Cheaper than Valdes-Scantling and should see more targets.
- Jerick McKinnon: Great salary for a dynamic player who should make the most of his touches; plus, we have seen Edwards-Helaire get lost in the shuffle over the last two seasons, being passed over for far less talented players than McKinnon.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Could get two targets for two touchdowns or five for one catch; truly Mr. Boom/Bust in island games.
- Dustin Hopkins: Eighth season for the veteran; 4-for-9 from 50-plus over last two seasons.
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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Joshua Kelly: Better on DraftKings where he is $2,600 and should get two or three targets in addition to a few carries as the Ekeler backup. Also returns kickoffs.
- Matt Ammendola: Replacing Butker; played in 11 games last year for the Jets; just 13 of 19 on field goals.
- Sony Michel: Just playing for a lucky touchdown or a 15-yard breakaway run.
- Kansas City D/ST: Decent chance for a pick-six or scoop and score; 3.5 over/under for combined sacks and turnovers.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Chargers have a good pass rush; Mahomes is nimble and has one of the fastest releases in the league.
- Isiah Pacheco: Does just enough to warrant his own line; needs blowout run or being tabbed as a wild card by Andy Reid to be a difference maker.
- Justin Watson and Skye Moore: Watson is in his fifth season but first with Kansas City after spending four quiet years deeeeeeeep in the Tampa Bay receiving order; Moore will be playing in his second career game. Each had a target last week. Moore does return punts and splits kickoff duties with Pacheco.
- Jody Fortson, Noah Gray, Jalen Guyton, Zander Horvath and Richard Rodgers: All should see the field; combined, this group is unlikely to see more than half a dozen opportunities.
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