Chargers-Jaguars DFS Picks: Austin Ekeler and Trevor Lawrence

Super Wild Card Saturday Night Football brings a matchup between the faltering Los Angeles Chargers and the surging Jacksonville Jaguars.

Super Wild Card Weekend should bring a plethora of excitement, and Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites, featuring these Chargers-Jaguars DFS picks.

This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 18 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars.

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NFL DFS Picks: Super Wild Card SNF | Chargers-Jaguars

Los Angeles Chargers: 24.5 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Justin Herbert vying with Kirk Cousins for the QB3 ranking on Super Wild Card Weekend. Jacksonville grades out as the 30th passing DVOA per Football Outsiders. Over the last three games of the regular season, the Jaguars faced two quarterback combos with the Jets (Zach Wilson and Chris Streveler) and Texans (Davis Mills and Jeff Driskell) grasping at straws. Then in Week 18 they got to face desperation play Joshua Dobbs in a must win game against the Titans.

Tonight Herbert and his talented receivers should have the early advantage as the Jaguars have not seen NFL caliber talent in nearly a month. Prior to the final stretch of the season, Jacksonville allowed five consecutive multi-touchdown games to opposing quarterbacks. Herbert had eight multi-touchdown games himself this season, despite working through a significant rib injury. He also was only one yard behind Joe Burrow for the second most passing yards per game this season with 278.8. While this was the lowest rate of his three seasons, we know that the Cover-2 defense has dramatically decreased passing yards across the league.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler is going to need to be the driving force behind most Los Angeles victory scenarios. Jacksonville does have a strong run defense with the 11th best rushing DVOA in the Football Outsiders metric, but they can be exploited by the pass. Ekeler is a capable runner and he should see around 15 attempts in the postseason action. He also is arguably the best receiving back of all-time and that is where he can really pile up the fantasy production. Oh, not to bury the lede, but he did rack up 18 touchdowns this season with his 13 on the ground tied for second, behind only Jamaal Williams (17).

Joshua Kelley will likely be the only other running back seeing snaps this week. He is a solid backup, but we know that all of the high value backfield touches will be earmarked for Ekeler.

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Wide Receiver

It has been a talking point all week, but somehow second-year head coach Brandon Staley felt it would be a good idea to play his starters deep into a meaningless Week 18 game in Denver against the Broncos. Even after Mike Williams left with an injury, he had Keenan Allen running routes across the middle of the field. Williams of course is out for this game as he was unable to practice all week. We are all familiar with the bona fides of Allen and he is a top fantasy option on all slates and in all formats this weekend.

The Chargers have had injuries all season across their entire wide receiver corps, so we know the pecking order when Williams is out. Josh Palmer has blossomed this season and he has worked his way into the mix, even when this unit is at full strength. He presents a nice downfield threat that pair well with Allen and he is far from a one-trick pony. DeAndre Carter will also see significant snaps and while it is hard to envision more than a couple of targets, he could be a slate-breaker tonight if the defense loses track of him on any given play.

Tight End

Los Angeles likes to roll with a lot of 12-personnel packages and as a result, four tight ends typically see the field. Gerald Everett is the best fantasy option and he has seen 87 of the 126 targets to this position. Tre’ McKitty and Donald Parham Jr. are each likely to get a look or two as they have seen at least one target more often than not over the last six games. Stone Smartt and veteran Richard Rodgers have served as the fourth tight end, though it would not be a surprise if the Chargers went with three active tight ends and use this roster slot on an extra defender.

Defense/Special Teams

Jacksonville does a good job of limiting sacks having allowed just six over the last six weeks. Over the last nine games they have suffered just two interceptions, so this is a tricky matchup for Los Angeles. The Chargers have five consecutive multi-sack games with 18 in this span and they also are among the league leaders in takeaways over the last three months.

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 23.0 Points

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence has had quite a turnaround under new head coach Doug Pederson after his disastrous rookie campaign under the idiotic tutelage of Urban Meyer. Los Angeles is in the top third of the league in passing DVOA according to Football Outsiders and this is going to be far from an easy matchup. Joey Bosa is going to make life difficult for Lawrence, so it will be interesting to see how the former No.1 selection and his coach scheme for an advantage against the Chargers.

Lawrence does not have many designed runs, but he is more than capable of escaping the pocket. This season he has five rushing touchdowns, so that is another element to keep the defense on their toes. This has been a mercurial fantasy season for the 23-year-old signal-caller as he has four games with three or more touchdown passes but also four games with none.

Running Back

For as good as the Los Angeles defense has been against the pass, they are inversely horrible against opposing running backs. The Chargers have been a proverbial “run funnel” defense now for several seasons, so it will be interesting to see how coach Pederson handles this angle. Back in Week 3, which is a lifetime in NFL terms, when the Jaguars rolled over the Chargers in LA, it was on the strength of 151 rushing yards and a whopping 36 carries, including the late-game kneeldowns. Travis Etienne was still playing second fiddle to James Robinson at that point with the latter leading the way with a 100 yard performance on 17 totes.

Etienne has assumed the lead role now that he is back to full health and of course this was further cemented when Robinson was traded to the Jets back in the Fall. The second-year back is more than capable of handling 20 carries, though his volume has been all over the place depending on gameplans and opponents. JaMychal Hasty has stepped up as the second running back and he should see a handful of opportunities tonight. The former 49er is particularly enticing on DraftKings ($3,200) in the full-PPR scoring format.

Snoop Conner will be the “in case of fire, break glass” option tonight. Keep in mind that in the seven games since the Week 11 bye, he is averaging just five offensive plays per tilt.

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Wide Receiver

Christian Kirk and Zay Jones should be on the field for most offensive snaps and the offseason acquisitions have formed a solid one-two combination with Lawrence. They have combined for nearly half of the total targets for the Jaguars with Marvin Jones Jr. playing third fiddle. Jones does have the ability to score from deep and he is a viable tournament option on both DraftKings ($2,600) and FanDuel ($8,000) having seen half a dozen targets in three of the last four games.

Jamal Agnew has fallen out of the rotation and over the last three games he has seen two carries and three targets in total. He was limited in practice on Thursday, but expected to suit up tonight. That questionable tag along with an anemic game log history should keep his popularity in check. Those building at least 40 lineups tonight should have him on a couple of entries.

Tight End

Evan Engram continues to have a strong troll game having snookered DFS gamers for years. Just when we think he has faded into irrelevancy, he manages to come storming back onto the scene. In a three game stretch starting in Week 14, the journeyman had 15, 10 and eight targets before managing only six total in his last two appearances. Yes he is a viable fantasy option, just be ready to have the rug pulled out from under your feet.

Over the last three games Dan Arnold (2 targets), Luke Farrell (1) and Chris Manhertz (0) have been all but invisible. Manhertz is the most likely of this trio to be on the field for more than a dozen snaps, but he earns his paycheck as a blocker.

Defense/Special Teams

Over the last six games, Jacksonville has rolled up 18 sacks and 11 takeaways. Though the Chargers have ceded only one sack in their last two games, they have allowed nine multi-sack games in the 10 tilts preceding the final weeks of the season.

Super Wild Card Saturday Night Football Chargers-Jaguars DFS Single-Game Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Super Wild Card Saturday Night Football Chargers-Jaguars DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Chargers-Jaguars

Austin Ekeler: Always looking out for his fantasy supporters!
Keenan Allen: Proven option, when healthy.
Trevor Lawrence: The kid can play.
Travis Etienne: Please feed him the rock!
Zay Jones: Overlook value option with all the buzz for Palmer and Carter.
Justin Herbert: Just six games with more than 20 fantasy points since Week 3.
Riley Peterson: We need the discount and he has at least two field goal attempts in eight of his last nine games.
Josh Palmer: Will be overrepresented in tournaments, do we dare “fade” him?
Christian Kirk: Boom or bust with four games of 19 or more fantasy points in his last nine outings, an four with single-digit production.
DeAndre Carter: Another player that the field is all over for the savings. Is the main kick returner for Los Angeles.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Chargers-Jaguars

Evan Engram: Damned if we do, damned if we don’t.
Cameron Dicker: 19 of 20 on field goal attempts in his 1o games with the Chargers, his lone miss was on his only attempt from 50-plus yards.
Gerald Everett: It is all about the touchdown, volume has been inconsistent, even with all the wide receiver injuries.
Marvin Jones Jr.: Only three trips to the end zone, workload has been on the upswing over the last month.
JaMychal Hasty: Could find himself in the optimal lineup on DraftKings if he can break off a 20 yard swing pass.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Chargers-Jaguars

Jacksonville D/ST: Home town crowd is going to bring it.
Los Angeles D/ST: Every game still feels like a road game for this nomadic SoCal franchise.
Donald Parham Jr.: One-time for all the XFL fans, one-time!
Joshua Kelley: Suboptimal salary, still in play for a dozen opportunities even with Ekeler taking the lead role in the ground game.
Jamal Agnew: Would feel better about his prospects if he were healthy and had not pulled a disappearing act down the stretch. Should return punts and kickoffs if active.
Tre’McKitty: Long shot, but still worthy of his own line.
Dan Arnold, Chris Manhertz, Michael Bandy, Luke Farrell, Snoop Conner, Tim Jones, Stone Smart, Zander Horvath, Isaiah Spiller and Larry Rountree III: Leave this motley crew to the 150-maxers.

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Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].