Thursday Night Football brings another island game that has lost some luster due to injuries and a pair of ineffective quarterbacks. Of course, on a positive note, we get another chance to focus on the play calling and clock management skills of first-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who has the Denver fans howling in anguish.
Heading into NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 5 Thursday Night Football slate featuring the Indianapolis Colts at the Denver Broncos.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 5 Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis is missing running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle), who could be out for a month. On defense, they are without a contributor at each of the three levels with defensive end Tyquan Lewis (concussion), linebacker Shaquille Leonard (concussion) and free safety Julian Blackmon (ankle) all on the shelf.
Denver will be without Javonte Williams (knee), who is out for the season with a torn ACL. The defense has also taken a hit with defensive back P.J. Locke and linebacker Aaron Patrick both out with concussions. The other notable injury is cornerback Darius Phillips (hamstring), who was limited in practice for the short week.
Indianapolis Colts: 19.5 Points
Quarterback
Matt Ryan has not been much of an improvement for the Colts over Carson Wentz. Denver has the sixth-best passing DVOA and only Jimmy Garoppolo (211 yards) has cracked 200 passing yards. To his credit, Ryan does have a pair of 350 passing yard performances, though that was in a Week 1 overtime tie against Houston and last week against Tennessee, which has a bottom-five passing DVOA.
The Stokastic fantasy projections are not particularly fond of Ryan, who is ahead of only rookie Kenny Pickett and the Baker Mayfield experiment. However, he is one of two starting quarterbacks in the player pool tonight, so he is still worthy of our attention.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor is out with an ankle injury. This means Nyheim Hines is the most experienced running back on the team. While he is an outstanding receiver and a capable runner, Indianapolis has not overburdened him when Taylor has missed time in the past. That said, veteran Marlon Mack is now in San Francisco, so undrafted second-year back Deon Jackson is the only other player to see snaps at the position this season and both of his offense plays occurred back in Week 2.
Hines should see around a dozen carries and half as many targets, with a potential opportunity mix approaching 20 overall looks. This workload, along with his reasonable salary for a “lead” back, has Hines as a stellar albeit wildly popular option tonight.
On a fun note, veteran Phillip Lindsay should be splitting the rest of the opportunities with Jackson and as a bonus, he is in his hometown and facing the team that gave him his first NFL chance. Lindsay is at the minimum salary on DraftKings, so he will not be under the radar and he is $2,000 less than Jackson on FanDuel. This is his first season with the Colts and he spent time last year with both Houston and Miami.
Wide Receiver
Michael Pittman Jr. missed Week 2, but he still has the most targets on the team with 28 in his three healthy games. Ashton Dulin, Alec Pierce and Parris Campbell all see time on the field, though they have 23 targets between them if we take out the nine to this trio in the game Pittman was out. Campbell will be on the field the most among the secondary options, but that is by no means a guarantee for looks.
Tight End
Mo Alie-Cox popped off for two touchdowns last week, bringing in all six targets for 85 yards. He will be splitting the tight end duties with second-year player Kylen Granson, who has 15 targets to the 14 for Alie-Cox. Rookie Jelani Woods has played in two games and has seen four targets, however, two have resulted in touchdowns. Once again, we should see some random tight end fantasy goodness popping up on a single-game slate.
Defense/Special Teams
The Denver offensive line and overall play calling scheme have not done much to protect the quarterback. This has led to 12 sacks, which is the eighth most in the league. Indianapolis is in the middle of the pack when it comes to quarterback pressure, but they do have a pair of three-sack games, including last week against Tennessee.
Denver Broncos: 22.5 Points
Quarterback
Russell Wilson does have a favorable matchup against the 27th-ranked passing DVOA, however, we have seen him struggling to reach expectations in his first four games in a Denver uniform. This matchup has him just inside the top half of all Week 5 quarterbacks and it is truly hard to believe that someone of his caliber has fallen so far so fast.
Some of the blame does go to the new head coach, but we need to remember that this is the first time in his NFL career that Wilson has been in a completely new system and operating under someone besides Pete Carroll. The touchdowns will come and better days are ahead for the 33-year-old signal-caller. Things could turn around with tonight’s matchup. Looking ahead between now and December, the Broncos will be facing the Jets, Jaguars, Raiders and Panthers along with matchups against the tougher on paper defenses of the Ravens and Chargers.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon will be stepping into the lead running back role with Javonte Williams lost for the year. We know what we are getting with Gordon, who should get the first crack at the high-leverage touches. Backup Mike Boone has had a few moments here and there during his career and he should get at least one-third of the backfield opportunities with the potential for more if Gordon’s fumbling problems continue this week.
Latavius Murray was signed off of the Saints practice squad on Monday after seeing action for New Orleans in the London game on Sunday morning. This is the ninth season in the NFL for Murray and the Broncos will be his fifth franchise and fourth in the last five years, so he is no stranger to dropping into new situations.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton leads the team with 35 targets and Jerry Jeudy is second with 21. Keep in mind that the 22 targets that went to Williams through the first month of the season will be redistributed and some are likely to land with this dynamic duo. The rest of the receivers have a dozen targets combined, with Kendall Hinton getting a season-high three last week all the way down to the dynamic, yet often injured, K.J. Hamler having just two on the year.
Tight End
Albert Okwuegbunam has seen his targets dip from a high of six in the opener to zero last week. In fact, in the last two games, Okwuegbunam has a pair of targets with no catches. Eric Saubert has six targets and Eric Tomlinson has only one on the year. Last week, Saubert was on the field for 41 snaps, while Tomlinson had 24 and Okwuegbunam was in the doghouse, stepping on the field just twice.
Defense/Special Teams
Ryan has nine fumbles through the first four games of the season, though he has lost only three. That is small solace considering he also has five interceptions. He has also been sacked 15 times this season. The Denver defense is always solid at home, and anything less than half a dozen combined sacks and turnovers is going to feel like a letdown.
Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 5 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Russell Wilson: If Wilson does not throw for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns, the boo birds should be out in force tonight.
- Nyheim Hines: Best point-per-dollar option on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring and rates out fourth on FanDuel, so make sure he is a core play. May cede punt return duties now that he is the main running back.
- Melvin Gordon: Should get the best touches, as long as his butterfingers issue was a one-week thing.
- Courtland Sutton: Clearly the dominant receiving option for Denver, the salaries are just a touch soft on both DraftKings and FanDuel with Williams now out of the mix.
- Denver D/ST: It is not hard to envision a pick-six or a scoop and score, courtesy of Matty Ice.
- Michael Pittman Jr: Will have the undivided attention of the Denver defense and should still be in line for double-digit targets.
- Jerry Jeudy: Ideally he builds some momentum from his touchdown last week.
- Matt Ryan: Ugh, still rates out with the third most fantasy points on the slate.
- Phillip Lindsay: Makes all sorts of lineups possible at the DraftKings minimum salary. A reasonable dart throw on FanDuel, though not as appealing.
- Brandon McManus: Two misses this season were from 53 yards against San Francisco and from 64 yards in Seattle.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Mike Boone: Not much salary relief at $9,000 on FanDuel and $6,200 on DraftKings.
- Chase McLaughlin: Played for six teams over the last four seasons. This is his second stint with the Colts. Replacement level on his good days.
- Indianapolis D/ST: Will have a few chances at Wilson and should do just enough to stay out of the next section.
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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Mo Alie-Cox: Feels like we are chasing points, but he did have a lot of offseason buzz from the Best Ball community.
- Alec Pierce, Parris Campbell and Ashton Dulin: Would be better off if one of them was out of the mix. All three are viable options. Let salary cap constraints be your guide if you do not have a strong lean towards any one of this trio.
- Kendall Hinton: Just $1,000 on DraftKings and at the $5,500 minimum on FanDuel. Update: Hinton not suiting up, already been called in from the practice squad three times this season and Denver not ready to sign him.
- Deon Jackson and Latavius Murray: Both could make some noise, though they need a few things to break their way before getting sustained opportunities. Update: Murray inactive.
- Eric Saubert: Looks to have the edge over Albert O.
- Kylen Granson: Could easily trade placed with Alie-Cox, particularly if the popularity sticks with the veteran.
- K.J. Hamler: Just one big play could do it. May only get one target, however, and his salary indicates he should see four to five. Buyer beware.
- Jelani Woods and Alert Okwuegbunam: Third-string tight ends. Of course, this position tends to outperform on showdowns.
- Andrew Beck, Eric Tomlinson, Montrell Washington and Mike Strachan: These guys should at least be active. Washington is the main return man for Denver. Update: RB Devine Ozigbo active for Denver.
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