It’s the battle of the birds as the Ravens and Eagles square off in week 6. Philadelphia is in the midst of a season to forget, but a win against Baltimore would go a long way towards turning things around. Can they steal a victory from the Ravens? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 6 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Ravens – Eagles NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column: Patriots at Broncos
Baltimore Ravens (26.75) at Philadelphia Eagles (19.75) – 1:00 p.m. ET
Baltimore Passing Game
It’s hard to call Lamar Jackson‘s week 5 anything other than disappointing, especially considering that he threw a season-high 37 times. Even with that sizable passing volume, week 5 was Jackson’s fourth straight game with fewer than 250 yards passing, and his third straight game without even topping 200. He’s now finished outside the top 15 quarterbacks in fantasy points in 60% of the Ravens games this year. In the context of this inefficiency, it’s easier to fault the Ravens’ extremely run-heavy and conservative offense (they ranks 22nd in air yards per second) for not producing enough consistent points for fantasy gamers, even if it’s (mostly) been resulting in wins on the field. In week 6, however, Jackson and the Ravens offense should have every opportunity to approach their 2019-level play when they face a Philadelphia team that ranks outside the top 15 in PFF’s coverage rating and overall defensive rating, and ranks 13th worst in points allowed per play. In week 5 they allowed a 79% completion rate to Ben Roethlisberger, as well as three passing touchdowns, en route to the ninth-highest fantasy point total among quarterbacks. Jackson will need an even more spectacular day (and likely a great day rushing) in order to be worthwhile at his QB1 salary on DraftKings, but it’s absolutely in the range of outcomes this weekend.
Assuming Jackson can find his footing as a passer, the first beneficiary would likely be tight end Mark Andrews, who continues to dominate in the red zone, earning double the targets of any other Ravens receiver inside the 20. His five receiving touchdowns are four more than any other Raven, and Philadelphia has been ravaged by tight ends, ranking among the five worst teams in fantasy points allowed over opponent average to the tight end position this season. That fact certainly doesn’t preclude receiver Marquise Brown from producing, either alongside Andrews or in his stead (though the latter is slightly less likely), Brown now ranks third in the NFL in true weighted opportunity share. The Eagles have been well below average in fantasy points allowed over opponent average to the wide receiver position as well.
The rest of the Ravens receiving options are low-end contributors and likely not on most fantasy gamers radars, but MME players could absolutely take a look at Miles Boykin (13% target share) or Willie Snead (10%) as dart throws. It’s quite possible Philadelphia focuses a majority of their efforts toward stopping Brown and Andrews, which could leave the aforementioned two receivers, rookie Devin Duvernay (6% of team targets) or tight end Nick Boyle (6%) available for 1-3 explosive plays. It’s not the most likely scenario, but against the struggling Eagles defense, the Ravens’ auxiliary pieces are absolutely in play for week 6.
Baltimore Rushing Game
Jackson’s abilities on the ground are typically where he proves his worth in fantasy football, but he’s failed to reach 55 yards rushing in four out of five tries this season, and his singular rushing touchdown on the year is hard to process. Fantasy gamers knew touchdown regression was likely for the reigning MVP after a spectacularly efficient 2019 (both as a rusher and passer), but it’s now appearing to have swung too far the other way relative to Jackson’s game-breaking rushing ability. It’s always a bad idea to say that anyone is “due” for an explosion in the rushing game simply because we haven’t seen it yet, but it certainly feels that the slate-breaking score from Jackson is right around the corner, and the matchup with the weak Philadelphia defense that is bottom-third in the league in explosive plays allowed presents a uniquely strong opportunity. Jackson’s still averaging six designed rushes and two scrambles per game, second-best in the league (behind Cam Newton). Betting on a multi-rushing touchdown day, or even 100 yards on the ground, isn’t the craziest option this week. All other options in the Ravens’ backfield should be considered touchdown-reliant at this point. Mark Ingram has failed to earn even 20% of the team’s backfield opportunities in four out of five games, and Gus Edwards continues to be utilized more frequently than J.K. Dobbins. Worse, they’re all competing for less than 50% of the team’s backfield touches, as the rest of the work funnels toward Jackson. None of the backs are considered strong options relative to salary in the Awesemo projections this week.
Philadelphia Passing Game
After finally getting in the win column against San Francisco in week 4, Philadelphia returned to its new dysfunctional normal, as Carson Wentz and his discombobulated passing attack failed to reach 275 yards for the fifth time this season. It was also the fifth game in a row where Wentz managed to throw at least as many interceptions as touchdowns. He’s yet to have a game with 7.5 yards per pass attempt and hasn’t finished higher than the 11th-best fantasy quarterback in any week this season. It’s a season to forget for Philadelphia, and it likely won’t begin any type of turnaround with the Ravens coming to town, sporting a top-12 defense according to PFF. Though PFF rate’s Baltimore’s secondary slightly below average compared to their above-average rush defense grades, last week’s statline (even when considering it was done against Cincinnati, one of the worst offensive lines in the league) does nothing to inspire confidence in Wentz or his struggling downfield weapons. With more intriguing options priced similarly on DraftKings this weekend, Wentz is likely a stay-away unless creating a contrarian game stack for tournaments.
Zach Ertz continues to be one of the great disappointments of the 2020 fantasy season. After contract negotiations apparently got ugly, and then cut-off entirely, Ertz has responded with an atrocious campaign thus far. He hasn’t caught a touchdown since the first quarter of week 1, and he only caught one of his six targets last Sunday. He’s being outproduced by practice squad players and late-round rookie receivers, and while we can attribute some of the struggles for Ertz to the lack of receiver talent on the outside (which likely draws further defensive attention towards Ertz) as well as Wentz’s struggles, the production remains jarringly poor. Making matters worse for Ertz, since receiver Travis Fulgham began playing full-time snaps in week 4, he’s seen significantly more of the target share (26% to Ertz’ 19%), air yards share (30% to 16%) and end zone target share (33% to 21%). It might be too early to tell, but it’s possible Ertz has been demoted to second-fiddle in this middling receiving game. Even with a stable target share and air-yard share, and with a sinking salary (he’s now the seventh-highest-priced tight end on the main slate), it’s likely better to chase upside players at cheaper salaries this weekend. With waning volume and a tough matchup, the price reduction certainly makes sense.
The aforementioned Fulgham was stellar in his first game, playing on more than 80% of Eagles’ snaps. His 13 targets were a season high for any Philadelphia player, as were his 10 catches. The incredible usage led to Fulgham producing one of the largest fantasy scores we’ve seen from any wideout this season, but it’s still difficult given the matchup and the one-week sample to consider Fulgham the top option on the Eagles (yes, that’s where we’re at with the injured Eagles receiver corps). Assuming the offense is still lacking DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery, the volume could very easily sway towards Greg Ward, who has an 11-target day himself already this season, or John Hightower, who led the team in total air yards last week. Out of the three, Awesemo’s projections are most bullish on Ward.
Philadelphia Rushing Game
Miles Sanders only carried the ball 11 times in week 5. With the Eagles forced into comeback-mode early in the second half, the Eagles all but abandoned their star rusher, even after he’d taken a third-down draw play 76 yards to the house in the first half. Outside of that singular run, Sanders gained fewer than 10 yards, though one was a goal line punch-in. Sanders still ranks sixth among running backs in quality opportunity share, but his massive fantasy output from last Sunday is a bit of red herring. As the 10th-highest running back on the slate, Sanders is priced appropriately based on the expected workload, but it won’t feel anywhere near a safe bet against a Ravens defense whose strength lies (according to PFF) in their rush defense. Nonetheless, if the Awesemo projections are to be believed, you’re better off taking the bet on Sanders’ volume and hoping for another two-score day rather than pivoting to scatback Boston Scott. Scott’s target share is down from 6% in 2019 to 3%, making him essentially unusable in daily fantasy football lineups.
Prediction: Ravens 28, Eagles 24.
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