NFL DFS Picks Week 8: Tua Tagovailoa Is A Booming Target

NFL DFS Week 8 features arguably the toughest week for options at the quarterback position as most of the top players are either on a bye week or not on the main slate. Picking not only quarterback, but also the rest of a lineup will be a little tricky if injury news doesn’t break out way.

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NFL DFS Picks Week 8: Best High-Upside Plays

NFL DFS Week 8 Boom Picks

QB Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins

DraftKings – $6,200; 14.0% Boom | FanDuel – $7,700; 9.0% Boom

Getting the discount on Tua Tagovailoa is the preferred route this week as he has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings at the quarterback position and the second-highest on FanDuel. With so many top quarterback options not on the slate getting Tagovailoa at this price specifically on DraftKings feels like a steal. His recent play has driven down the salary, but the upside is there with elite wide receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Dolphins have the highest implied total on the slate at 27.5 points in their road matchup against the Lions. They are 3.5-point favorites as they finally got back in the win column after three-straight losses with Tagovailoa injured. It is tough to find a better fantasy environment than playing against the Lions at Ford Field. Through seven weeks, the Lions have allowed a league-high 412.2 yards per game while their defense ranks 31st total and Pass DVOA. This game also has the highest total on the slate at 51.5 points, so it is impossible to avoid. Prioritize Tagovailoa on DraftKings at his cheap $6,200 price tag.

RB Tony Pollard – Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings – $6,100; 28.4% Boom | FanDuel – $6,300; 16.4% Boom

As of right now Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has not practiced all week and his status for this weekend remains in question. Tony Pollard is coming in with the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Elliott has been a machine in terms of games played missing only one game in the past four seasons. In that game back in 2020 against the 49ers, Pollard had 12 rush attempts for 69 yards and two touchdowns. Pollard’s usage rate should sky rocket in the passing game as well if Elliott can’t play this week.

Obviously the DFS community loves Pollard already, and if Elliott is unable to play Pollard will have egregious ownership numbers. On FanDuel, Pollard is reaching over 50% in our last ownership run. The other factor setting Pollard up for success is this matchup against the Bears. They traded away defensive end Robert Quinn from a defense that already ranked 24th in Rush DVOA. Being nearly double-digit home favorites, Pollard should get as much work as he can handle. This season the Cowboys have a 47% rush rate, which ranks in the Top 10 of the league. If Elliott is out, Pollard is the easiest lock on the slate.

WR Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings

DraftKings – $9,100; 18.3% Boom | FanDuel – $9,000; 20.8% Boom

Coming off the bye week, the Vikings get a home matchup against the Cardinals who played in a barn burner against the Saints last week. Justin Jefferson is climbing the best wide receiver ranks, but has had trouble getting into the end zone. He scored two touchdowns in the first week, but only had one goal line rushing touchdown in the remaining five weeks he has played. All of Jefferson’s fantasy scoring is coming from receptions and receiving yards. He has three-straight games with over 100 receiving yards averaging 136 on 9.3 receptions per game during that time.

The Cardinals so far have been a pass-funnel defense as they rank 27th in Pass DVOA and sixth in Rush DVOA this season. This game has a 49-point total, which seems a little low as this is another dome game played in Minnesota. The Vikings and Cardinals rank in the top six of pace this season so this should be a shootout. Jefferson has the second-highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings this week. Outside of the quarterbacks, Jefferson has the highest projection for both sites and it is only a matter of time until he breaks the slate with another multiple touchdown performance.

TE Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons

DraftKings – $4,000; 17.5% Boom | FanDuel – $5,600; 13.0% Boom

Welcome back to the Kyle Pitts experience. Buckle your seat belts as you enjoy the rollercoaster. With all of the stud tight ends not on this main slate, Pitts is coming in with the highest boom percentage at the tight end position. The discount in pricing for Pitts is well deserved as he has lost so many snaps since the start of the season. In the last four weeks that he has played, Pitts is only in on 65.5% of the Falcons offensive stats. Regardless of the limited snaps, Pitts is second on the team averaging a career-high 20% target share. The salary helps if the upside has taken a hit.

As everyone chases the blowup game, just know the Falcons have the second-highest run rate this season at 58%. They host the Panthers as four-point favorites, which means they could run the ball even more this week. However, the Panthers rank 13th in Rush DVOA and 22nd in Pass DVOA, so hopefully the Falcons are forced to throw a little more than they want. With the tight end position so limited, Pitts may finally be able to come through. He has the second-highest leverage score on both sites this week.


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NFL DFS Week 8 Busts/Fades

QB Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings – $6,600; 57.7% Bust | FanDuel – $7,200; 47.3% Bust

In his first game back since being injured, Dak Prescott went 19-for-25 for 207 yards and one passing touchdown. He had three rushing attempts, but did not gain a single yard. If Elliot is unable to play, the Cowboys may need to rely on Prescott more, but he didn’t look all that healthy last week. It is very difficult to justify paying this salary for a quarterback who has surpassed 300 passing yards just five times in his last 19 games since his nasty leg injury in 2020. Prescott has the highest bust percentage on DraftKings this week.

The Bears are overall a bad defensive team, but they have been much better against the pass than the run this season. They also play at the 24th slowest pace, so this could be a slugfest as the total sits at only 42.5 points. Being such a heavy favorite at home, it is tough to see the Cowboys being pushed to score points through the air. In their 24-6 victory last week the Cowboys ran the ball 32 times compared to Prescott’s 25 passing attempts. That is what they want to do: Pound the rock and play solid defense.

RB Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers

DraftKings – $8,700; 71.7% Bust | FanDuel – $8,500; 49.4% Bust

The bust percentage on Christian McCaffrey on DraftKings is absurd at 71.7%. Expect him to play much more than the 27.8% of snaps last week, but it is tough to get traded in the middle of the season and be ready to go right off the bat. No one can touch the upside that McCaffrey has, but Jeff Wilson Jr. is good and Deebo Samuel has seen his fair share of carries over the years. If Samuel is out this week, McCaffrey does look much better, but you’re paying for peak McCaffrey when he may not be ready to be unleashed.

These two teams played just three weeks ago with the 49ers winning at home 24-9 as the Rams failed to score a touchdown. This total has climbed to 43 points, but another low-scoring game between these two very strong defenses wouldn’t be surprising. The Rams rank second in Rush DVOA as they allowed the 49ers to rush for only 88 total yards in their last meeting. When McCaffrey is clicking on all cylinders, he is very involved in the passing game. However, it is hard to predict which Jimmy Garoppolo will show up. Too many question marks regarding McCaffrey.

WR A.J. Brown – Philadelphia Eagles

DraftKings – $7,700; 54.5% Bust | FanDuel – $8,200; 44.3% Bust

The obvious pairing with quarterback Jalen Hurts is going to be wide receiver A.J. Brown. However, after an explosion in the season opener, Brown has been very mediocre the last five weeks. During that time, Brown is averaging just 69.6 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns. He has not topped 100 yards or had more than five receptions in a game over that stretch. It seems hard to fathom, but Hurts spreads the ball around quite a bit and has averaged already 12.8 rushing attempts per game. Brown has the worst leverage score for the elite wide receivers on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

Playing against the Steelers is where the fear of this fade comes into play. They rank in the middle of the pack in Pass DVOA, but the Eagles have the second-highest implied total at 27 points as they are double-digit home favorites. Coming out of the bye week, expect the Eagles to have their way with the Steelers defense. This is another situation where the Eagles could lean on the running game over airing it out as they have the third-highest run rate in the league. Other than the first week, Brown has been uncharacteristically quiet. Let’s hope that remains the case for this matchup against the Steelers.

TE Darren Waller –  Las Vegas Raiders.

DraftKings – $5,400; 60.6% Bust | FanDuel – $5,500; 40.6% Bust

Fading Taysom Hill feels too easy, so instead we’ll go back to one of our more popular tight end fades with Raiders tight end Darren Waller. He is expected back, but is still dealing with a hamstring injury, so who knows if Waller will be at full strength. In his four games to start the season, Waller has a ridiculously low 11.3% target share as he has topped 50 receiving yards just once. Bringing Davante Adams into town has really diminished the upside that Waller has. Adams hasn’t practiced all week, but is optimistic to play this week. Even if he sits it is tough to trust Waller even getting through the game.

At $5,400 on DraftKings, Waller is the second-most expensive tight end option on the slate. Meanwhile on FanDuel his salary has dropped to the ninth-most expensive tight end, but he still doesn’t seem worth the salary with what we’ve seen. The Saints are not nearly as potent defensively as they have been in recent years, but Derek Carr hasn’t been all that great throwing the ball either. Being college teammates and best friends, Adams has a team-leading 29.7% target share while Waller remains an afterthought. He is too expensive on DraftKings and don’t fall for the trap on FanDuel where Waller has a very low 6.5% optimal percentage.

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