Dolphins at Bills NFL DFS Picks: Will Josh Allen Lead the Bills to Victory Tonight?

Week 15 Saturday Night Football brings a matchup with a savvy Bills squad at home taking on a suddenly reeling Dolphins offense that has been exposed, leading to consecutive defeats.

Heading into NFL Week 15 Saturday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.

This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 15 Saturday Night Football slate featuring the Miami Dolphins at the Buffalo Bills.

NFL DFS Picks: Week 15 SNF | Dolphins-Bills

Miami may be without running back Jeff Wilson Jr. (hip) who was only able to practice for the first time on Thursday and he was only a limited participant. Offensive lineman Terron Armstead (toe/knee/pectoral) is banged up to say the least and he too will be a game time decision. Safety Eric Rowe (hamstring) has been ruled out and wideout River Cracraft (calf) is doubtful.

Buffalo is mostly healthy for this matchup with defensive lineman Jordan Phillips (shoulder) and offensive lineman Ryan Bates (ankle) the key players who will be on the shelf.

Miami Dolphins: 18.0 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections believe that Buffalo will be able to follow the strategy of forcing Tua Tagovailoa to throw outside the hash marks. This has dropped the young signal-caller to the 24th projected quarterback for the full Week 15 player pool.

Buffalo was able to hold Tagovailoa in check earlier this season, but that was back in Week 3 which was a lifetime ago in NFL time. In his last six games, the 24-year old field general has 13 passing touchdowns against only two interceptions. However, both those picks came against the vaunted San Francisco defense. The wrinkle is that a far less talented Chargers team followed the same approach, daring Tagovailoa to throw outside and denying him anything over the top. This resulted in a putrid 10 of 28 performance for just 145 yards and a single score.

In the cold wind and likely snowy conditions in Orchard Park tonight, it is going to be interesting to see how Tagovailoa and head coach Mike McDaniel rally the offense against the 7th ranked passing DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

Running Back

Jeff Wilson Jr. (hip) is banged up having played only two dozen snaps over the last two games. There is a decent chance he is inactive tonight, which would likely result in Myles Gaskin being elevated from the practice squad. Gaskin was the leading rusher last year, though the former University of Washington stalwart has been irrelevant this season getting action in only three tilts.

Raheem Mostert should continue to be the main option and DFS gamers are well aware of his skillset. Miami uses a lot of 21-personnel with fullback Alec Ingold in the mix for nearly half of the snaps, which of course leads to one tight end and three wideouts for a majority of the game.

Buffalo has the third best rushing DVOA, allowing only two running backs to surpass 76 yards on the ground and only four have recorded 70 or more yards. Mostert is a capable runner and pass catcher, so he should be on the field in most situations, but it is going to be a long and cold row to hoe in this matchup. Keep in mind that since the Week 11 bye, Miami has thrown to running backs only 13 times in three games.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill is leading the league with 100 receptions, and he is behind only Justin Jefferson with his 112.2 yards per game. Anytime he touches the ball, he could end up with a touchdown, but of course the entire Buffalo defense knows this and will be focusing on keeping Hill contained, likely going with the popular two-deep coverage strategy. This is important to note as the Bills have been in the top five this season in their use of man-to-man coverage. Much like the infamous Charlie Tweeder, nobody can cover Hill one-on-one.

Jaylen Waddle has seen just nine targets in the last two weeks with three receptions for 40 yards. This anemic conversion rate is not his fault as he tends to be the hot route when Tagovailoa is under immediate pressure and there have been a lot of panic throws. Waddle is still carrying a hefty salary on both DraftKings ($9,000) and FanDuel ($12,000), thus relegating him to tournament only consideration in this tough matchup.

Trent Sherfield and Cedric Wilson are in play on DraftKings for salary relief, though they are likely to combine for only half a dozen targets. If River Cracraft (calf) is out as expected, recently signed veteran Freddie Swain is a $200 desperation punt on DraftKings, who can facilitate some creative lineups.

Tight End

Durham Smythe has six targets in the last six games, but he is only $200 on DraftKings and will be on the field for around half the snaps. Mike Gesicki has seen his fantasy fortune fall this year as the new coaching staff prioritizes blocking. Over the last three games he has four targets, but no catches – of course he has been in a similar situation as Waddle, with Tagovailoa making hurried throws.

Defense/Special Teams

Miami has rolled up an impressive 16 sacks over the last four games and Buffalo usually allows a couple per outing. The Bills have ceded 20 turnovers, which is the fourth most in the league. However, the Dolphins will be hard-pressed to take advantage of this as they have just 12 takeaways in 13 games.

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Buffalo Bills: 25.0 Points

Quarterback

Josh Allen is dealing with an elbow injury and while the team is confident he should not injure it any further, they are limiting his practice throws. Over the last four games, Allen is averaging just over 200 passing yards with six aerial scores. Fortunately he still is active in the running game with nearly 40 yards per appearance in this stretch along with a pair of touchdowns. Still, Allen is usually worth spending up for, and should be considered in Dolphins-Bills DFS picks.

Running Back

Devin Singletary seems to have the slight edge after looking like he was losing ground to rookie James Cook. The weather favors a ground game tonight, though Miami has been a top 10 team against the run. Fullback Reggie Gilliam has ceded most of his snaps to mid-season trade acquisition Nyheim Hines, which makes things very murky when trying to point to “the best” fantasy option from the backfield.

From a fantasy perspective, the clear answer is Cook and even if he sees 30-40% of the overall backfield opportunities, his ridiculously low salary on FanDuel ($6,500) makes him quite appealing when compared to Singletary ($11,000). The discount is not as dramatic on DraftKings, but it is still enough to make Cook the preferred player in this committee.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs can make his fantasy supporters happy on just one play, though the weather is not in his favor. The volume should be there as he his 133 targets are more than Gabe Davis (71) and Isaiah McKenzie (55) and combined, with rookie Khalil Shakir (17) rounding out the options.

McKenzie has the point per dollar edge over Davis and working out of the slot in bad weather also tilts the scales in his favor. Shakir is in play on DraftKings ($600) for those making 75 or more lineups, but do not expect more than a target or two tonight.

Tight End

Dawson Knox has not been as fortunate with touchdowns this season after seemingly living in the end zone for the latter half of last year and through the playoffs. He does have six or more targets in three of his last five games and his salary will not break the bank. Knox will be on the field for around 80% of the snaps, with the rest of the tight ends and Gilliam as the H-back covering the rest. Knox has all but two of the tight end targets since Week 5.

Defense/Special Teams

Tagovailoa has been sacked nine times in the last three weeks, which is concerning considering he has 17 total sacks on the year. Buffalo has logged multiple sacks in all but two games and the Bills rank fourth with 22 takeaways this season.

Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy For Dolphins-Bills

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Week 15 Saturday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings For Dolphins-Bills

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Dolphins-Bills

  1. Josh Allen: We will not be alone in this assessment.
  2. James Cook: Yes, we are going to trust the rookie – this is heavily influenced by his salary when compared to Singletary.
  3. Stefon Diggs: Believe in the volume.
  4. Dawson Knox: Loving his participation on nearly 80% of all offensive plays.
  5. Tyler Bass: 90% conversion rate inside of 50 yards over his three seasons, weather is not great, but he should have at least two field goal attempts plus a few PATs.
  6. Tyreek Hill: Can do it with or without Tua as evidenced by his wild fumble recovery and score last week. Potential to work some magic as the punt returner.
  7. Isaiah McKenzie: If this game was in a dome, Davis would be the preferred play. Also returns kickoffs.
  8. Buffalo D/ST: Lean into whichever narrative you like between the weather, homefield and Tagovailoa’s struggles.
  9. Devin Singletary: Should get first crack between the 20s and is one Cook miscue away from consolidating the majority of the touches. Still a red zone afterthought.
  10. Tua Tagovailoa: It will be interesting to see if he can rise to the challenge of this matchup.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Dolphins-Bills

  1. Raheem Mostert: Single-digit fantasy points in four of his last five appearances, includes two touchdowns during this stretch. Yikes!
  2. Jaylen Waddle: Better on DraftKings with full-PPR scoring, but still not a priority.
  3. Gabe Davis: Yes, he could break the slate with two long touchdowns, but he has crested over a dozen fantasy points only once in his last seven games.
  4. Miami D/ST: Meh, but the price is right at $3,400 on DraftKings – dart throw at $9,000 on FanDuel.
  5. Jason Sanders: In play and could approach double-digit fantasy points if Miami stalls out in the red zone a couple of times.

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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Dolphins-Bills

  1. Alec Ingold: Four targets in two of the last four games, one in each of the others. Weather, snap share and rock bottom salary have him as a fringe core option.
  2. Jeff Wilson Jr.: Hard to trust him even if he is active.
  3. Myles Gaskin: Will only suit up if Wilson is out.
  4. Trent Sherfield: Needs blown coverage and time for Tua to find him in order to succeed.
  5. Nyheim Hines: In the mix around lineup #50, though he needs Cook to make a mistake or Singletary to be ineffective before he will see more than a handful of chances. Returns punts.
  6. Mike Gesicki: How the mighty have fallen with a simple change in offensive philosophy.
  7. Cedrick Wilson: Two or three targets is his ceiling, but if he gets a 20-yarder he could be viable in a low scoring game.
  8. Durham Smythe, Freddie Swain and Khalil Shakir: In play as extreme punts on DraftKings around lineup #50.
  9. Quintin Morris, John Brown, Tanner Conner, Salvon Ahmed and Tommy Sweeney: At least they will be closer to the action than DFS gamers.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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