Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | Week 1

The Jaguars host the Colts in a Week 1 AFC South battle between two teams with different expectations. Philip Rivers leads his new team into Jacksonville to take on Gardner Minshew and the Fournette-less Jags. For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 16 games on tap for Week 1 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Lets get into Colts – Jaguars.

CLICK BACK to the main fantasy football matchups breakdown main page for the rest of the game-by-game analysis.

 


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Colts (26.5) at Jaguars (18.75) – Sunday 9/13/2020, 1:00 p.m.

Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown

The Jaguars enter the season with the lowest Vegas expected wins (4.5), and even lower expectations, especially after dramatically cutting former top-five pick Leonard Fournette on Aug. 31. While it sends a clear message that the Jaguars are slamming the door shut on the Tom Coughlin era, it also guarantees a drastically different offensive identity in Jacksonville in 2020. Despite much of the NFL landscape presuming the Jaguars must be tanking, Minshew had a very respectable rookie season, leading the Jaguars to a score on 39% of his drives in 2019, in lockstep with 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray. He looked like a starting-caliber quarterback who can keep his team in games, and his ability to play off script and scramble effectively if needed is still highly underrated (No. 5 in carries per game last season).

An argument can be made that Minshew was stymied by an extremely conservative offensive scheme, which heavily featured Fournette in the receiving game to disastrous results. It’s highly likely we see a more aggressive approach under new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, which could boost Minshew’s production in year 2.

Don’t be surprised if second-round pick Laviska Shenault Jr. has an immediate role in both the passing game and out of the backfield. If there’s anyone who could be this year’s A.J. Brown, it’s Shenault, who profiles as a high-BMI slot receiver with stellar after-the-catch ability. Expect six to eight opportunities for Shenault and even more for fellow D.J. Chark. Chark is looking to build upon a breakout 2019 campaign, where he was top 20 in the NFL in targets, receptions and touchdowns.

Rounding out the passing game, could we witness a reemergence for Tyler Eifert? With prospect Josh Oliver lost for the year (broken foot), Eifert will get his shot to contribute, likely deployed as a red-zone weapon. In the secondary, the Colts lost play maker Pierre Desir and are hoping to replace him with Xavier Rhodes, a former Pro-Bowler with the Vikings. However, Rhodes was a liability for Minnesota last year, allowing a dreadful 76% catch rate and a passer rating when targeted north of 132. Minshew needs to pick his spots, but the Colts defense, even with the big-time addition of play-making defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, are by no means a lock to shut down the Jaguars passing attack.

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown

Philip Rivers’ first game as a Colt appears to be a winnable one. A year ago, Rivers threw the seventh-most passes in the NFL with the 11th-highest average depth of target. In Indianapolis, expect the attempt numbers to stay high but the target depth to decrease, as Rivers and coach Frank Reich focus on shorter, higher-percentage looks to play makers in space. Speaking of play makers, the Colts have an abundance of talent at the skill positions.

T.Y. Hilton, the veteran of the crew, projects to lead in targets once again. After averaging just under seven targets per game in eight starts last season, it’s reasonable to expect that number to move closer Hilton’s 2018 average of 8.6. With Rivers at the helm, a 10-target game for Hilton will rarely be out of the question. Behind Hilton, the team will look for contributions from Zach Pascal (5.5 targets per game in 2019) and 2019 and 2020 second-round receivers, Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr.

The backfield split between entrenched starter Marlon Mack and second-rounder Jonathan Taylor is anyone’s guess, but both will absolutely receive work. This may be a true hot hand situation early on, however, making it a notoriously difficult prediction task for fantasy football. Receiving game specialist Nyheim Hines will absolutely be active underneath with 3-6 opportunities as well. Another area of interest will be the receiver pecking order at tight end. With Jack Doyle less than 100% (neck), look for Mo Alie-Cox to get a chance for starter’s reps. Frank Reich recently raved about Cox’ abilities, and at 6-foot-4 with a 36-inch vertical leap and 36-inch wingspan, Cox possesses an otherworldly catch radius, which could be a quarterback’s best friend near the goal line.

Prediction: Colts 28, Jaguars 21

Alternative Scenario: Minshew throws two touchdowns and runs for another in a Week 1 upset. Jaguars 28, Colts 27

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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