The Giants are 0-3, down their best player and looked utterly lost last week. Now they’ll travel to Los Angeles to face a Rams team looking to get back on track after suffering their first loss in Week 3. Do the Giants stand a chance against the potent Los Angeles offense? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 12 games on tap for Week 4 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in into the NFL DFS picks. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into the Giants – Rams fantasy football matchup and find the best NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
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New York Giants (18) at Los Angeles Rams (30.5) – 4:05 p.m. ET
New York Giants Passing Game
There wasn’t much to like about the Giants Week 3 loss against the 49ers. Even playing against a slew of San Francisco second stringers, the Giants barely mustered any significant offense, as every player on the Giants finished Week 3 with an expected points added per play below zero, an impressively poor feat. Daniel Jones was dreadful as a passer, finishing with a ratiing south of 40 and a completion expected versus expectation (CPOE) of -6.6%. It was his second straight zero-touchdown day, and his 179 yards passing in Week 3 is his third-worst yardage tally as a starter. This week he’ll face a Rams defensive unit that ranks 16th in team coverage grade (via PFF) and 15th in pass rush. Particularly for receivers not guarded by All-Pro Jalen Ramsey, there could be advantageous matchups for Jones to exploit. If the Vegas implied totals are any indication, Jones and the Giants will need to do just that, as they’re 12-point road underdogs heading into Sunday’s matchup. Even so, Jones still has the requisite volume (as a passer and on the ground) to outpace his QB29 salary on DraftKings this weekend. Awesemo’s projections rank Jones significantly higher than that mark this week.
Darius Slayton continues to lead the way for this dreary offense. Slayton falls just outside of the top 25 receivers in true target share but ranks 11th overall in true air yards share, good enough for a true weighted opportunity share (True WOPR) north of 20%, 11th highest at the position. Against the aforementioned Ramsey, he may have another quiet day, but another game like Week 1 (when he scored two touchdowns) is certainly not out of the question against the Rams’ average pass defense.
Evan Engram hasn’t had a productive 2020 season thus far, but he is receiving plenty of usage to be considered as a starting tight end. His true weighted opportunity share of 12th among tight ends is also second on the team, ahead of Golden Tate (who ranks 66th among receivers). None of them present as incredibly appealing in this matchup, but in tournaments they’re in play for gamers who create lineups that stack Rams and wish to run it back with a member of the Giants. No other active member of the team has received 10% of the offense.
New York Giants Rushing Game
The Giants backfield was anything but impressive in Week 3, their first game without superstar Saquon Barkley. Dion Lewis played the highest percentage of snaps (38%) but only got four total opportunities, with Wayne Gallman second (35%) and receiving the most total opportunities with seven. Devonta Freeman, in his first game since being signed off the street, played on 29% of snaps and received five opportunities. The Giants leading rusher has finished with 42 yards (Daniel Jones in Week 3), 28 yards and 6 yards, and they’ve scored one rushing touchdown as a team the entire season. They’re only worth consideration in the most contrarian of tournament builds.
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Los Angeles Rams Passing Game
Jared Goff and the Rams continue to utilize a very conservative offense in neural game scripts, but down huge in the second half against Buffalo, we got to see a different side of the Los Angeles offense. Goff manufactured four straight touchdown drives, earning the fifth-best total passing expected points added of any quarterback on the week behind Patrick Mahomes, Nick Mullens, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. Despite an extremely low 33 dropbacks per game, Goff is having one of his most efficient seasons as a pro, ranking eighth in expected points added per play and fourth in true drive success rate, good enough for sixth among all quarterbacks in composite efficiency this season.
Cooper Kupp had the typical target-monster day that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing but hadn’t seen yet in 2020 prior to last week. His 10 targets were tied for the sixth most in Week 3, and he made the most of the opportunity, turning those targets into nine catches for 107 yards and a score. Not to be outdone, fellow wideout Robert Woods found the end zone as well on a five-catch, 74-yard day. Both now rank in the top 25 in high-value opportunities (targets plus goal-line rushes), but when incorporating air yards neither rank inside the top 30. With Kupp up to the seventh-highest-priced wide receiver and Woods the 14th, they’re both tough pay up for, even in a plus-matchup against a Giants secondary that ranks 26th in PFF’s team pass coverage grade and an equally putrid 25th in pass rush grade.
Tight end Tyler Higbee (17th among tight ends in true weighted opportunity share) presents the most interesting value for his price. Higbee has had 40 yards receiving in each of the Rams’ first three games this season, and while we can’t rely on a multi-touchdown day like we saw in Week 2, Higbee has intriguing upside on a massive home favorite. He’s priced up as well as the sixth-highest tight end, needing a score of 17-plus points to return value at his price. Van Jefferson (87th among wide receivers in true weighted opportunity share) is a distant fourth option, but he is absolutely in play in tournaments.
Los Angeles Rams Rushing Game
Rookie Cam Akers appears set to miss his second straight game with a rib injury, consolidating what was a three-headed monster into a rather manageable two-way split. Darrell Henderson has been the best back on the team since returning to the lineup in Week 2. He led the backfield in opportunities in each of the last three weeks. He’s tied with Malcolm Brown in targets and now sits just one total opportunity behind Brown on the season. He’s also found the end zone twice, while Brown has yet to score since his two-touchdown Week 1 against the Cowboys. Despite being priced-up for what looks like a great matchup for running backs, even as the fifth-highest-salary back, he could easily gain 100 total yards, and possibly a score, if the Rams get up big and are content to run the clock.
Prediction: Rams 28, Giants 10.
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