The 49ers are 2-2 and still dealing with injuries to star players on both sides of the ball. Can the Dolphins, sitting at 1-3, take advantage of San Francisco at less than full strength? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 12 games on tap for Week 5 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Dolphins – 49ers NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
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Miami Dolphins (20) at San Francisco 49ers (29) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Miami Passing Game
The Dolphins aren’t contenders this year, but they’re far from the worst team with a 1-3 or worse record this season, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The Dolphins rank fourth in expected points per drive and a healthy sixth in expected points added per play. Though they play a rather conservative style, ranking 29th in neutral situation air yards per second and 18th in true neutral pass rate on early downs, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has kept the Dolphins in games with the 17th-best true drive success rate. His 316 yards passing in Week 4 were sixth highest of the week, and his 268 pass yards per game over the last three weeks rank 18th, a clear sign that this offense is, at worst, middle of the pack. Even against a tough San Francisco defense that ranks second in PFF’s team defensive grade, the Miami offense putting together three to four touchdown drives on Sunday remains well within the realm of possibility.
In Week 4, we saw Fitzpatrick put up his best passing numbers of the season while honing in on two primary targets. The first should not be surprising. DeVante Parker, after a slow start as he returned from a leg injury, has now received 25% of the Dolphins’ targets in back-to-back outings. In Week 4 he turned that usage into monster numbers, catching 10 passes for 110 yards, by far the most on the team.
The second name is rather surprising – Isaiah Ford jumped both Preston Williams and tight end Mike Gesicki in the target order, earning 21% of the Dolphins’ targets. He now ranks second on the team in target share. Though both of their outputs pale in comparison to Parker, Ford has out-produced Gesicki in passing yardage in each game since Gesicki’s 130-yard explosion in Week 2. Ford makes for an interesting value play, as he’s still priced 74th among receivers. Awesemo projections like him much more than that this week. The only other option to consider is speedster Jakeem Grant, who doesn’t need much volume to break a home run and saw a season-high four targets last week. At minimum salary on DraftKings, Grant makes for a decent dart-throw play in tournaments this week.
Miami Rushing Game
In Week 4, playing against a dominant Seattle offense, the Dolphins were forced into passing situations much more than they would prefer, which limited the usage of Myles Gaskin. His workload dropped dramatically back to 14, which is right where he’d been prior to his 27 touches against Jacksonville in Week 3. San Francisco’s line is dealing with even more injuries on the defensive, losing Ziggy Ansah, already a replacement, for the season. Nonetheless, they rank second in PFF’s rush defense grade and fifth in team tackling grade. Running backs have scored three points below their seasonal fantasy-point average this year, eighth toughest in the league. Though he’s the only back of consequence (Matt Breida, Lynn Bowden and Jordan Howard have combined for six and 10 total touches, compared to Gaskin’s 27 and 13), and priced fairly as the 30th running back on the slate, he’ll need volume closer to Week 3 and likely a touchdown to return value.
San Francisco Passing Game
Missing their starting quarterback, multiple running backs and far from 100% at receiver, the 49ers came out flat offensively in their second loss of the season. Nick Mullens was an uninspiring 18-of-30 for 200 yards and two interceptions, eventually giving way to third-stringer C.J. Beathard, who was a slightly improved 14-for-20 for 138 yards and escaped without an interception. The quarterback position is more up in the air for the 49ers this week than it is for any other team, bringing a massive level of uncertainty to the betting lines (this game had been off the board in many places earlier in the week). But regardless of starting quarterback, the Miami defense should be an exploitable unit, right at league average in expected points per drive allowed but ranking 26th in expected points subtracted (EPA allowed) and dead last in PFF’s team coverage grade. Assuming the quarterback play is competent, the most likely game scenario is that the 49ers muster enough points early on to run it down Miami’s throat in the second half, but the passing game will absolutely need to be more effective than it was in Week 4 for the 49ers to get to that point.
It was a spectacular return to action for All-Pro tight end George Kittle, who led the league in targets, receptions and receiving yards in his first game since Week 1. Kittle is fourth in total receiving yards among tight ends despite the two-game absence, and his 19 total catches are third. His averages in both categories are position-best, and his 9.5 targets per game thus far is second in the NFL to DeAndre Hopkins. Kittle is a special talent, playing in an offense picture perfect for his skill set. Even at the highest salary and highest projected ownership at the position, Kittle remains one the most likely skill players to reach or exceed their projection on the entire slate.
No 49ers wide receiver saw even half of Kittle’s targets in Week 4, but Brandon Aiyuk’s 13 targets in two games and a truly incredible touchdown run are beyond encouraging for fantasy gamers and 49ers fans alike. Kendrick Bourne has been the steady underneath contributor this season, earning five, five, six and six targets this season. He’s had between 33 and 67 yards each game this season and is a low-upside, touchdown-dependent play. Deebo Samuel, however, is much more intriguing, even at a slightly higher price than Aiyuk. Samuel only saw three targets, but as we saw last season, he made the most of his schemed looks and contributed in the rushing game, finishing for 45 total yards in his first action of 2020. He’ll likely see more volume going forward. An offense centered around Kittle with speedsters like Aiyuk and Samuel in a plus matchup is far from the worst passing attack to bet on this Sunday. Even with a backup quarterback, the skill position players make excellent tournament options this weekend. Kittle makes sense wherever you can fit him.
Pittsburgh Rushing Game
Even as they get healthier at receiver, the 49ers prefer to win through their run game, and if one were to go by PFF grades, this might be the most exploitable matchup they’ve faced all season. The 49ers are ranked fourth in PFF’s net offensive advantage and tops on the slate in net run advantage. This is a great spot for Jerick McKinnon, who was also second on the team in targets a week ago, and possibly for Raheem Mostert, who returned to limited practices this week. McKinnon, as the 17th-highest running back on the slate, isn’t really being looked at by fantasy gamers this week, as Awesemo’s ownership projection has him at sub 1%. Especially if Mostert doesn’t play, there’s a great chance McKinnon could go off, even if he cedes some goal line touches to Jeff Wilson.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Dolphins 21.
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