The Cowboys have one the best offenses in football, but it’s not translating to wins. Meanwhile, the Giants are 0-4 but are inexplicably one game out of first place. Which team gets a grip on their season in this NFC East showdown? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 12 games on tap for Week 5 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Giants – Cowboys NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
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New York Giants (22) at Dallas Cowboys (32) – 4:25 p.m ET
New York Giants Passing Game
The Giants’ 2020 offensive numbers are, in a word, uninspiring. Though some of it can be contextualized by their difficult early season schedule, a quarter of the way through the year they rank in the bottom half of the league in air yards, completions, passing yards and passing touchdowns per game … and in the top six in the league in interceptions thrown. Quarterback Daniel Jones ranks an astonishingly low 38th among quarterbacks this season in average expected points added per game (minimum two starts). It’s difficult to find any metric to get excited about with Jones through four games. His deep ball completion percentage is second in the league, but he ranks 30th in deep ball attempts. His true completion percentage (that factors out throwaways) ranks 26th. No matter how you slice and dice up Jones’ numbers, it’s impossible to put him, or this offense, in the upper echelon of NFL passing games.
And yet, against a Dallas team that seemed utterly incompetent in Week 4, allowing a league worst .51 points per play, (and .67 points per play to Cleveland last week, 8% more than any other defensive unit), and one of 11 teams that gives up more than six yards per play, Jones is absolutely worth considering in lineups this weekend. The Cowboys rank 30th in PFF’s team coverage rating, so they remain particularly soft in the secondary, though the Browns did a significant portion (307 yards worth) of their damage on the ground in Week 4.
The yardage total for the Giants’ leading receiver in weeks 2 through 4: 65, 53, 48. The weekly reception leader hasn’t topped six catches. Those aren’t exactly prolific numbers, but it doesn’t preclude any of the Giants’ pass weapons from finding their way to 100 receiving yards and a score against the Dallas secondary. The two primary candidates would be wide receiver Darius Slayton and tight end Evan Engram, who have traded off weeks as the team’s target share leader. Slayton has led the team in air yards share in each of the first four weeks, and the Cowboys are the fifth worst in fantasy points allowed above opponent average to the wide receiver position. Dallas is equally erratic against the tight end, however, ranking seventh worst in the same metric. Despite the Giants’ offensive woes, there remains a solid chance that Engram, Slayton or both could outperform in this spot. They have the 36th-highest wide receiver and 12th-highest tight end salary, respectively. Both will be among the top five highest-owned players at their position.
Even Golden Tate should also see increased ownership in this game where, if Vegas totals are to be believed, scoring should happen in bunches. Tate has 14 catches over the last three weeks, and his Awesemo projection slides in well ahead of his WR45 salary. Damion Ratley saw 20% of the team’s air yards in Week 4 and is an intriguing dart-throw play at only 0.2% projected ownership.
Miami Rushing Game
If Week 4 is any indicator, Devonta Freeman began to establish himself as the primary back in New York for the rest of 2020. It was his first game cresting a 25% opportunity share, and he was the first Giant to do so since Saquon Barkley did it in Week 1. Dion Lewis continues to mix in, he’s received 13% of the team’s opportunities since Week 3. As the 32nd-highest-salary running back, Freeman is a solid bet to outperform his salary-based expectations, and with a few goal line looks, he could easily have his best day as a member of the Giants. Though Week 4 tells a different story, Dallas hasn’t had the same problem with running backs, on average as they have with wide receivers. Despite a bottom-five PFF rush grade, Dallas ranks among the top 10 toughest defenses in fantasy points allowed over opponent average thus far.
Dallas Passing Game
Another Sunday, another prolific passing day for Dak Prescott. That marks three weeks in a row with a top-five fantasy finish at the position and two out of the last week as the No. 1 quarterback. His 502 yards was a new career high, as were his 493 air yards. He ranks seventh in quarterback expected points added and sixth in true drive success rate. It’s been said in previous versions of the matchups column, and it will be said again here: Prescott does not control his defense’s ability to stop, or should we say not stop, the run. Despite the poor record, the Cowboys transition to a pass-oriented offense, centered around their three superstar receivers, is good for their team overall and even good for running back Ezekiel Elliott long term (see Dallas Rushing below). The Giants are an average secondary that aims to shut down No. 1 receivers with cornerback James Bradberry. He currently has the second-highest PFF coverage grade and second-highest overall grade of any cornerback in the NFL.
That doesn’t bode well for Amari Cooper, but it certainly doesn’t prohibit him from going off in this spot either. Cooper is finally putting together the type of season that so many knew was in his range of outcomes when he was drafted fourth overall in 2015. He’s first in the league in total targets, fifth in total air yards, sixth in red zone targets, third in receiving yards and second in receptions. The only concerns here are his matchup with Bradberry and salary, but even as the third-highest-salary wide receiver on the slate, Awesemo’s projections are still bullish on Cooper this weekend. You’ll need to differentiate your lineup in other places, however, as he projects at nearly 20% ownership on the main slate.
Rookie receiver CeeDee Lamb has been sensational through the first four weeks of the season. He’s averaging 77 yards per game and hasn’t dipped below 65 receiving yards in three straight weeks. He’s been the most efficient of the three players, in terms of receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), and ranks among the top 25 receivers in the league in that metric. When factoring in air yards, however, the second on the team in receiving opportunity is still Michael Gallup, who’s seen 27% of Dallas’ air yards (compared to Cooper’s 32% and Lamb’s 16%). On a prolific, pass-first offense (Dallas leads the league in pass plays per game), both Lamb and Gallup have even clearer paths to success than Cooper. With Lamb now the second-highest-salary wideout on the team, Awesemo’s ownership projections predict that many fantasy gamers will see the value in pivoting to Gallup and that Lamb will end up being the least owned of Dallas’ big three. It will take some finagling, but Lamb seems like a smart contrarian play in a great game environment. Cedrick Wilson, who dominated Week 3 but reverted back to a backup role in Week 4, will continue to see run, but he’s only viable in mass multi-entry. He’s still expected to see elevated ownership (for his salary) around 2%,as fantasy gamers continue to pounce on this game environment as a likely source of fantasy production.
Tight end Dalton Schultz also must be mentioned, as he’s filled in more than admirably in relief of Blake Jarwin (ACL), posting two top-10 performances at the tight end position in three weeks as a full-time player. He hasn’t finished below 8.8 fantasy points yet. It’s a small sample, of course, but it appears Schultz has an incredibly high floor for such a typically volatile position. It should go without saying, but players with a high floor and a high ceiling are typically great bets. Schultz is a bargain as the 10th-highest-salary tight end on the slate.
Dallas Rushing Game
As mentioned above, Dallas’ transformation from what some might have called a run-first team under Jason Garrett to a pass-first team under Mike McCarthy, is a net positive for Elliott. It’s been frustrating to say the least for fantasy gamers, who’ve continued to roster Elliott at his high salary, just to see him underperform. But because of the immense volume of Dallas’ passing game and the number of trips the team takes to the red zone, Elliott’s expected fantasy points are the highest in the NFL, and it’s not particularly close. Alvin Kamara, the next closest player, has 2 fewer (PPR) expected fantasy points per game than Elliott. It’s been a combination of randomness, game flow and inefficiency that’s hampered him, but Elliott remains right in step with historical trendlines for running backs in terms of evaded tackles per touch. He’s the same exact player he’s always been. You won’t be alone this weekend if projecting that Elliott’s immense usage finally turns into quality production, as his ownership projects in the top three at the position, but the projection for Elliott is right once again, even as the second-highest-salary running back on the slate.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 20.
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