Kansas City didn’t play their best football against the Patriots, but they still managed to come out unscathed and enter the second quarter of the NFL season undefeated. The Raiders have had an up-and-down four weeks, but got thoroughly outplayed last week in Buffalo. Can Derek Carr keep pace with the Chiefs or will Patrick Mahomes return to his typical explosive form? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 12 games on tap for Week 5 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into the Raiders – Chiefs NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
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Las Vegas Raiders (21) at Kansas City Chiefs (34.5) – 1:00 p.m. ET
Las Vegas Passing Game
The Raiders, coming off a difficult Week 4 loss to the upstart Buffalo Bills, are playing anything but bad football offensively. Even while dealing with a slew of skill position injuries over the last two weeks, Derek Carr is quietly playing some of his most effective football of his career. Carr ranks top 10 in expected points added per play, completion percentage over expected, true drive success rate and rbsdm.com’s EPA/CPOE composite metric. He’s been extremely efficient, all while maintaining a top-12 average in pass attempts per game. Especially in a matchup where plenty of points are expected to be scored (this game has the highest Vegas total on the slate), Carr and his weaponry aren’t tough to trust this weekend.
Kansas City had no trouble shutting down the New England backups after Cam Newton was ruled out, but they ranked just 15th in PFF’s coverage grade heading into the Monday Night matchup, an indicator they are absolutely still exploitable through the air. With Chris Jones nursing an injury that forced him to miss Week 4, it spells potential problems for a defensive line that PFF graded in the bottom 12 in pass rush grade with Jones in the lineup. Carr is certainly effective when not pressured, ranking seventh in the league in clean pocket completion percentage, but his effectiveness under duress cannot go overlooked. He ranks fourth in completion percentage and 11th in passer rating while under pressure this season.
The target leader and main volume beneficiary after injuries to the wideouts is tight end Darren Waller. Ranking first in total targets and in true weighted opportunity share at the position, plus recording his third game already with over 25% of team targets, Waller remains cash-game viable, even as Las Vegas marches closer to full strength at the skill positions. He also ranks first on the team and top six at the position in red zone target share at 30%.
Hunter Renfrow has seen the largest uptick in usage over the last two weeks, seeing target shares of 28% and 18% over the last two games. Moreover, Renfrow has expanded his game beyond his perceived “slot-specialist” role, with an average depth of target that ranks fourth among Las Vegas receivers (behind only Henry Ruggs and rotational players Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones), outpacing Waller in that metric as well. He’s averaged 71 yards per game over the last two weeks, top 30 at the position. His usage will sway based on the availability of Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, but assuming one or both miss, Renfrow is locked in for plenty of volume in what is likely to be a pass-friendly game environment.
With both Ruggs and Edwards ailing over the last few weeks, Agholor has averaged an 88% snap share since Week 3, second on the team among skill players. He’s seen a steady 9% of team targets both weeks and is averaging three catches for 38 yards during that span. You could do worse at his salary on DraftKings this weekend, particularly if Ruggs and Edwards remain sidelined. Should they return though, Agholor likely won’t receive the snaps nor volume needed to be fantasy-viable, but he should still see more than the 19% snap share he averaged over the first two weeks of 2020. Jones ranks slightly ahead of Agholor in true weighted opportunity share but ranks outside the top 100 at the position. He’s likely the first to have his playing time reduced if Ruggs and/or Edwards return.
Las Vegas Rushing Game
Josh Jacobs has only recorded one game (the Week 2 game in which he got injured) where he’s received less than 11% of the Raiders’ targets, bolstering his rock-solid floor as a rusher. The usage has come down a bit after averaging an outrageous 48% opportunity share over the first two weeks, but game flow (and possibly injury concern) limited Jacobs’ usage to a season-low 32% of opportunities in Week 4. That still ranked 15th at the position, but it’s an indicator that Jacobs will need to be more efficient with his touches in games where the Raiders are trailing, as they are expected to be in this contest. Jacobs isn’t necessarily cheap compared to his expected workload as the 12th-highest-priced back on the slate, but Awesemo’s projections for Jacobs are bullish compared to salary this weekend, especially going against a Chiefs rush defense that was just gashed by Damien Harris for 100 yards on the ground a week ago. Jalen Richard saw his largest target total (four) of the season in Week 4, but that was likely due to game flow as the Raiders were in hurry-up mode for much of the fourth quarter, down by multiple scores to the Bills. He and Devontae Booker are simply spell backs who split Jacobs’ typical rushing (Booker) and receiving (Richard) work when he needs a breather.
Kansas City Passing Game
It wasn’t the typical offensive explosiveness we were used to seeing from the Chiefs in Week 4, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were good enough on Monday Night Football to beat the depleted Patriots. Mahomes was far from his typical accurate self, however, ranking just 17th among quarterbacks in ESPN’s expected points added, 21st in completion percentage and 22nd in total QBR. His two passing touchdowns were each forward tosses of less than one yards, functionally serving as extensions of Kansas City’s creative rushing attack. It appears Mahomes was nearly jinxed by 538.com’s article that claimed Mahomes “never has a bad game” (the piece is well done), but Mahomes was able to stay just above historical league average in QBR, thus maintaining his streak. Against Las Vegas, Chiefs fans and fantasy gamers alike will be rooting for a game in which Mahomes reverts back to his gaudy 2020 efficiency marks, where he still ranks inside the top five in expected points added and in true drive success rate. Even on his worst nights, Mahomes consistently finds ways to turn drives into touchdowns at an above league-average rate, so his weaponry remains a threat for monster fantasy production, even if the volume is slightly lower than typical, as it was in Week 4.
The Raiders represent a perfect “get-right” scenario for the Chiefs offense. Las Vegas ranks 31st in the NFL in coverage rating, after giving up 30 points to Josh Allen and the Bills last Sunday. Their pass-rush grade isn’t much better, where they rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL as well. The Raiders are ninth worst in total points against, second worst in PFF overall defensive grade, and they’re still missing multiple starters in the secondary. Mahomes should roast this defense on Sunday.
Tyreek Hill was only moderately productive, especially for his standards, on limited volume Monday night, scoring a touchdown that saved his Week 4 from disaster. His 64 yards on six targets is the floor of what fantasy gamers expectations for Hill, and he has now been out-targeted by Sammy Watkins in three out of four games this season. Watkins, who led the team in targets Week 4, hasn’t been efficient by any stretch, but his usage is an indicator of both health (never a given for Watkins, unfortunately) and overall importance to the offense. His increased usage will take away looks from Hill and Mecole Hardman more so than Travis Kelce, who continues his methodically elite usage and production. Kelce has topped 50 yards receiving in every game this year and is the only skill player in the NFL to finish each of the first four weeks as a top 12 option at their respective position. It’ll be hard to pay up for his services this weekend in DFS contests, but it will very likely be worth it. Hardman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Darrel Williams have combined for 13, 14 and eight targets over the past three weeks. Hardman, who scored a touchdown in Week 4, will be an interesting flier at just $4,400 on DraftKings this weekend.
Kansas City Rushing Game
Edwards-Helaire is once again priced sky high for what is expected to be a plus matchup for the entire Kansas City offense. The usage overall is certainly there, as Edwards-Helaire owns a top-four opportunity share and an impressive top-15 target share at the position. But the production has been hit or miss. Though 92 total yards in Week 4 ranked in the top 20 at the position last week, it’s far less than what fantasy gamers are expecting, particularly if he continues his end zone drought. Edwards-Helaire hasn’t scored since Week 1, and he’s a suggested fade at his price based on Awesemo’s projections for the Week 5 slate. Williams hasn’t received more than 6% of the team’s opportunities since Week 1 and is the only other back besides Edwards-Helaire to receive a target or rush in all four games this season.
Prediction: Chiefs 38, Raiders 24.
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