The Bears stole a victory from Tampa Bay in week 5 and now sit at 4-1. The Panthers have now improved to 3-2 and are looking to continue their hot streak as Chicago comes to town. Can the Panthers slow down Nick Foles and company? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 6 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Bears – Panthers NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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The Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column for NFL DFS
Chicago Bears (20.25) at Carolina Panthers (23.75) – 1:00 p.m. ET
Chicago Passing Game
The Bears narrowly escaped with a win last week, thanks in part to Tom Brady’s mental blunder in the waning moments of the fourth quarter of week 5. But regardless, the Bears did just enough offensively to move to 4-1 on the season. They’re now just a half game back of the Packers for the NFC North lead, but even after the change to Foles at quarterback, Chicago remains one of the least exciting offenses in the league. Since Foles took over in 2020, he ranks 33rd among starting quarterbacks in average depth of target, 33rd in passing touchdowns and the Bears rank second to last in explosive play rate. Despite a high pass play per game rate, this is not a team that can rely on its quarterback to make plays downfield, and therefore they are forced into a low-octane offense, committed to underneath work, defense and clock control. They rank bottom 12 in the league in true early down pass rate, meaning they’re pass rate is skewed by late downs and game flow.
He didn’t have a touchdown in week 5, but Allen Robinson continued to command a ridiculous percentage of the Bears’ passing game, earning a league-high 38% of targets. Among all receivers to play at least three games, Robinson now ranks fourth in true weighted opportunity share and second among wide receivers in percentage of team opportunities. Despite the potential being even higher, with that kind of heavy workload, Robinson continues his stellar season in spite of quarterback mediocrity. He’s one of 12 wide receivers averaging over 80 yards per game,l and is the only one of the Bears’ receiving options that fantasy gamers should have any type of confidence rostering week in and week out. But you’ll have to pay for it this weekend. Against a vulnerable Panthers defense that ranks exactly league average in PFF’s coverage rating and 27th in overall defensive grade, Robinson is priced as the fourth-highest wideout on the slate.
Beyond Robinson, the Bears continue to fluctuate in usage. David Montgomery’s target share has spiked since week 3, when fellow back Tarik Cohen was lost for the season. He wound up second in targets a week ago, but he is the third Bears receiver in five weeks to finish second on the target hierarchy. Both rookie Darnell Mooney (65% of snaps in week 5) and third-year receiver Anthony Miller (41% of snaps) continue to seize playing time for one another, allowing tight end Jimmy Graham to make a consistent impact. Graham has the second-highest true weighted opportunity share on the team, caught a touchdown in week 5 (on a beautiful one-handed grab in the back of the end zone) and has a solid probability of grabbing another in this matchup, as the Panthers rank dead last in expected points subtracted per play.
Chicago Rushing Game
After playing on just 52% of snaps in weeks 1-3, Montgomery has emerged as the clear workhorse back since Cohen went down. He’s averaged an 83% snap share and a 31% opportunity share since week 3, good for 15th in the league among all players in that span. Though he’s left much to be desired in the efficiency department since taking over, ranking outside the top 50 in rushing expected points added per game, and scoring only two total touchdowns on the season, Montgomery is the volume play with a plus-matchup at a desirable salary this weekend. He ranks just 17th among backs on the main slate. Priced at a reasonable $5,800 and with a solid projected touch-per-dollar and newly guaranteed receiving work, one could do much worse at Montgomery’s salary. You’ll absolutely need touchdowns for him to have a slate-winning score, but the chances haven’t been higher for a top-12 (or dare we say top-five) performance from Montgomery all season. He’ll be a fairly popular option (he’s projected to be the seventh-most utilized running back on the slate), but that shouldn’t scare people away.
Carolina Passing Game
After an 0-2 start, the Panthers have rattled off three straight victories and now find themselves in a three-way tie at the top of the NFC South. Though two of the wins came against the Chargers and Falcons, who are combined 1-9 this season, the Panthers have clearly hit their stride offensively, thanks to Teddy Bridgewater’s quick-hitting, efficient passing attack. Over the last three weeks, he ranks sixth among all quarterbacks in passing expected points added per play and has six total touchdowns compared to only one interception. His passer air conversion ratio (PACR) of 1.38 is third among all starting quarterbacks in the same three week span. It’s not the most aggressive offense (the Panthers rank 21st in air yards per second of play), but it’s a very pass-friendly offense that ranks seventh in true neutral early-down pass rate that has coalesced into a stretch of fantastic production for Bridgewater and his three main pass catchers.
But Sunday’s matchup is a different beast altogether. The Bears rank seventh in defensive expected points per drive, fifth in defensive expected points subtracted per play and third in actual points allowed per play this season. Much of this is thanks to an incredibly disruptive defensive line that continually put pressure on Brady in week 5 and is likely to do the same here against a weak Carolina offensive line. The Bears rank fourth in team pass rush grade while the Panthers grade out as eighth worst in pass blocking. In coverage, the Bears as a secondary are not considered elite via their PFF grades, but the play on the field has been exceptional. Chicago ranks top three in passing success rate allowed to both running backs and tight ends, which could deplete the elite usage (and efficiency) in the receiving game we’ve seen from running back Mike Davis over the past few weeks. Against wideouts, the Bears are closer to the middle of the pack, ranking 13th in success rate allowed but rank top five, once again, in wide receiver yards allowed per reception. Cornerback Kyle Fuller has been the premier cornerback of the Bears secondary in 2020, recording his highest defensive grade of the season against Tampa Bay in week 5. He now ranks 11th overall among cornerbacks in PFF’s coverage grade.
Though he’ll likely spend plenty of time on D.J. Moore (who finally produced at the level his underlying opportunity would suggest in week 5), Fuller should be primarily focused on Robby Anderson, who had another impressive statline in week 5, pulled ahead of Moore in true weighted opportunity and now ranks 10th at the position. Anderson is unquestionably the WR1 in Carolina and represents a self-scouting whiff by Adam Gase and the Jets, who didn’t prioritize keeping Anderson. While Fuller has been excellent, he shouldn’t stop Anderson from getting his typical looks. Anderson’s new normal might be more difficult to reach in this matchup, but it’s far from out of the question.
Moore has been outtargeted by Anderson 29 to 15 over the last three weeks and has been significantly less efficient on a per-play basis as well (he ranks outside the topb50 in receiver air conversation ratio), but he did find the end zone in week 5 on a 57-yard catch and run. According to NFL next gen stats, he was the fastest recorded ball carrier of the week in the entire NFL on his touchdown play, a reminder of his immense athleticism?and continued intriguing upside, particularly if Anderson is bottled up by Fuller. As a benefit to fantasy gamers, no other Panthers receiver or tight end has received the requisite volume to be considered for daily fantasy lineups other than Curtis Samuel, who continues to be utilized for about three to five targets and two to four carries per game, which is surprisingly low with Carolina still lacking one of its main weapons in Christian McCaffrey. He’s quietly been utilized more (in terms of total opportunities) than Moore over the last three weeks. Moore is still the deep threat of the offense, though that’s not a particular strength of Bridgewater’s. Moore’s true weighted opportunity share remains in the top 15 among all players in the league.
Carolina Rushing Game
Though McCaffrey is eligible to return from IR, it doesn’t appear that he’s quite ready to return from an ankle sprain. It’s likely one to two more weeks of theD avis show, and what a show it’s been. Even after 78 total opportunities this season, Davis remains lightyears above the historical expectation for avoided tackles, even above McCaffrey in the metric compared to a year ago. The understudy to the top back in fantasy football has played every bit as well, and the Panthers are 3-0. Regardless of game flow, Davis is a lock for 22 touches, and if the passing game isn’t working (and the game remains close), Davis could get even more looks as the Panthers aim to win the time of possession battle and ultimately earn their fourth straight victory.
Prediction: Panthers 24, Bears 23.
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