Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins | Week 2

Buffalo heads into Miami to take on the struggling Dolphins in Week 2. Can Josh Allen continue his hot start and lead the Bills to a win over Miami? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 2 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Bills – Dolphins.

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Buffalo Bills (23.2) at Miami Dolphins (18) – Sunday, 1 PM ET

Buffalo Bills Breakdown

The Jets are going to make a lot of teams look good this year, and the Bills were first in line to take advantage of this fact, beating their AFC East rival with ease in Week 1. Josh Allen wasn’t asked to do too much and still ended up in the top 10 among quarterbacks in expected points added per drive and in drive success rate. Most excitedly for fantasy football, Allen continued to be a threat in the ground game, adding a rushing touchdown to his two touchdown passes. Even better, he allocated over 50% of the team’s weighted opportunity to his top play makers, peppering John Brown and Stefon Diggs with targets. The pair split 19 targets amongst themselves, 10 for Brown and nine for Diggs, with Brown finding the end zone, on a screen pass. Cole Beasley maintained his methodical underneath role, commanding seven targets as well.

Zack Moss is clearly going to push Devin Singletary, particularly in high-leverage areas. Moss saw four of the team’s five goal-line rushes (Allen had the other) and caught a touchdown as well. Singletary was still utilized as a receiver, commanding seven targets, but it seems Buffalo’s intent on using a committee approach at the running back position this season. It’s clearly an encouraging sign for the third-round rookie Moss, who the Bills clearly have big plans for in 2020.


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Miami Dolphins Breakdown

It must be annoying for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who consistently outplays his situation in year 1 of a new system and then struggles with turnovers in year 2. “The Fitzpatrick Pattern” began to rear its ugly head once again in Week 1, as Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions and never put the Dolphins in a position to compete with rival New England during Week 1. Fitzpatrick’s favorite target Sunday was predictably Preston Williams, as DeVante Parker came into the game banged up and exited Sunday’s loss with an injury as well. Williams ended up seeing nearly 30% of the Dolphins weighted opportunity (WOPR) share, but due to their mid-tier pace (14th in seconds per play in week 1) and mid-tier play-calling conservatism (also 14th in true neutral early down pass rate), this only translated to seven targets and only two receptions.

The only other notable option in the passing game was Mike Gesicki, who continues to be used in a hybrid receiver role. He was slightly more productive with his 16% true weighted opportunity share, catching three balls for 30 yards. The bottom line is that this offense is anemic, particularly without Parker. And it may be even tougher for the Dolphins’ to move the ball than last week, as the Bills posses two of PFF’s top-35 corners, including the No. 2-graded safety, Jordan Poyer. Look for the Bills’ defense to bait Fitzpatrick into making mistakes in an attempt to flip the field for Allen.

The Miami ground game featured Myles Gaskin more than most expected. With Jordan Howard taking his goal-line reps and Matt Breida non-existent in the passing game, Gaskin ended up seeing over 10% of the Dolphins’ weighted opportunity rating, turning the opportunity into four receptions for 26 yards and 40 yards as a rusher. At $4,300 on DraftKings, you could do worse than Gaskin as a GPP dart throw, particularly if the Dolphins’ find themselves behind and simultaneously unable to take deep shots due to the Bills’ secondary strength. In this circumstance, Miami’s short-area targets, Isaiah Ford and Jakeem Grant (who’s dealing with a calf injury), could also see extended usage. Both possess the requisite speed to break a long run if they find themselves in the open field.

Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 20

Alternative Scenario: Allen connects on three deep shots, and Fitzpatrick connects with the Bills’ secondary. The Bills breeze to 2-0. Bills 33, Dolphins 13

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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