Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants | Week 2

The Bears were a surprise victor in Week 1, stealing a victory from Detroit on the road. Now they’ll head to New York to face a Giants team that fell completely flat Monday night. For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 2 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Bears – Giants.

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Chicago Bears (23.6) at New York Giants (19) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Chicago Bears Breakdown

The Bears have no business being 1-0 after their defense allowed the Lions to march down the field for a game-winning drive, only to be bailed out by a fluke of a dropped touchdown. Nonetheless, Chicago seems poised to take a 2-0 start, as they go on the road to visit a Giants team that allowed a 100-yard rusher in Benny Snell and a two-touchdown game for wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Wide receiver Allen Robinson saw a healthy part of the weighted opportunity share (30%) as he should, but considering that workload, his five receptions for 74 yards is an underwhelming total. Anthony Miller also saw 20% of the Bears’ pass volume, including an acrobatic end zone grab, as part of a five-reception, 76-yard game. He inserted himself right back into the No. 2 receiver role that he seized before a shoulder injury ended his 2019 season prematurely. He certainly isn’t the most efficient quarterback, but there’s no doubt that Mitchell Trubisky has two high-quality weapons in the receiving game in Miller and Robinson.

David Montgomery was the primary ball carrier for Chicago but didn’t receive a full workload by any stretch. His 13 rushes for 64 yards are right around his weekly floor in this offense, but the three targets (only one reception) is encouraging for his upside. Tarik Cohen, who it appeared might get a full workload had Montgomery been forced to sit, was relegated to his typical gadget role, earning just two targets with no rushes inside the 10.


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New York Giants Breakdown

Saquon Barkley’s historically poor day as a rusher (six yards on 15 carries) isn’t going to happen again, but the Giants clearly have significant problems on the offensive line. Daniel Jones will be playing at a weekly disadvantage, as he’ll likely be forced into situations where he’ll need to pass effectively outside the pocket or take off and run. His 41 pass attempts are somewhat valuable for his receivers, as it indicates that there may be plenty of opportunities for these pass catchers to produce, even if it may be mostly while in comeback mode. Despite the high pass volume, Jones seemed content to check the ball down consistently, as Barkley tied for the team lead with nine targets.

The other Giants player with nine targets was Darius Slayton, who had a monster fantasy game thanks to his two touchdowns. He earned an admirable 28% of the Giants true weighted opportunity share with Golden Tate absent, followed by Barkley (20%) and Sterling Shepard (17%). At of all the disappointing Week 1 performance, the worst of them may have been Evan Engram, who was banished into irrelevance with just two catches for nine yards. Even worse for Engram, Golden Tate should return to the fold this week, muddying a situation that’s already very difficult to predict from week to week.

Prediction: Bears 21, Giants 17

Alternative Scenario: Both teams pass more efficiently than the Week 1 versions of their offenses, and the game opens up for both teams in the second half. Bears 31, Giants 27

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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