The Colts were shocked by the Jaguars in Week 1 and now look to avoid sinking into a 0-2 hole. This week they host Minnesota, to face a Vikings team looking to right the ship after a disastrous divisional defeat.For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 2 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Colts – Vikings.
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Indianapolis Colts (25.5) at Minnesota Vikings (22) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Indianapolis Colts Breakdown
Marlon Mack’s torn Achilles in the first half of Week 1 is something that nobody wanted to see. As fantasy football analyst, however, it does bring clarity to a Colts backfield situation that was going to be very difficult for fantasy gamers to suss out from week to week. Jonathan Taylor didn’t even see snaps until the second quarter but eventually earned nine carries and six targets, while backfield mate Nyheim Hines had even more high-value touches, leading the backfield in targets with eight and earning an additional two goal-line carries. Hines could be a great pivot play this weekend, as Taylor is expected to be heavily owned as a slight road favorite. It’s worth mentioning that Philip Rivers has a long history of making more than one running back on his team fantasy relevant, including his last years in Los Angeles utilizing both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler.
Parris Campbell appeared to be Rivers’ favorite receiver, much to the chagrin of those that rostered T.Y. Hilton. When factoring in air yards, however, it was a very flat distribution of pass volume, with Hilton, Campbell and Hines all receiving 20% of the Colts weighted opportunity share. This week, the Colts’ receiving corp will face a Vikings secondary who had zero cornerbacks graded in the PFF top 75 in Week 1. Cameron Dantzler and Holton Hill, 91st and 97th in PFF’s grades, respectively, saw an average of 35 snaps in coverage a week ago and are expected to lined up against Hilton and Campbell Sunday.
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Minnesota Vikings Breakdown
Minnesota climbed back into their game against the Packers late, but they were facing a massive negative game script for most of the second half. This led to some inflated passing attempt numbers, but it also gave us a glimpse of the ridiculously high ceiling for Adam Thielen. Thielen commanded nearly 40% of the Vikings’ weighted opportunity share and found the end zone to cap off a fantastic fantasy performance in a losing effort. No other player on the Vikings earned even 20% of the passing volume, but players to monitor are Olabisi Johnson (16%) and Justin Jefferson (12%). Still, if you’re looking at this game for DFS, particularly if you are stacking Packers, running your lineups back with Thielen seems like an advantageous play in Week 2. Another positive development for fantasy gamers monitoring the Vikings’ pass game was their early-down aggressiveness in neutral game script situations (though there weren’t many opportunities like that on Sunday). Minnesota appears to be inclined to put the ball in Kirk Cousins’ hands more often this season, which could lead to some inflated offensive numbers down the line.
Dalvin Cook has seen better performances than his 50 yards rushing on 12 carries in Week 1, but his five goal-line carries (which he turned into two scores) and additional two targets are the reasons behind his stellar weekly floor. In closer games we should expect Cook’s workload to creep back up toward 20 opportunities. Alexander Mattison got decent run behind Cook, earning four targets and a goal-line carry as well. Nonetheless, this is Cook’s backfield, and despite being slight home underdogs this week, he remains a great play in any fantasy format.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Colts 20
Alternative Scenario: Rivers gets on the same page as his receivers and torches the Minnesota secondary early and often, forcing the Vikings into the same desperation mode in the second half we saw just one week ago. Colts 34, Vikings 30.
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