The world champion Chiefs head to Los Angeles for their first road game of the 2020 season against a Chargers team that had no business winning Week 1 yet still find themselves 1-0. For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 2 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Chiefs – Chargers.
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Kansas City Chiefs (27.7) at Los Angeles Chargers (19) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Los Angeles Chargers Breakdown
No team was luckier to escape with a Week 1 win than the Chargers after Cincinnati kicker Randy Bullock missed a chip-shot filed goal with 7 seconds remaining. In spite of being carved up by Joe Burrow in what should have been his game-tying drive, the Chargers find themselves 1-0 heading into their Week 2 showdown against the Super Bowl champs. As expected, the Chargers are running an entirely different offensive scheme with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, which features significant use of the pistol formation and heavy usage of play-action fakes, misdirections and uptempo pace (Chargers were eighth in seconds per play in Week 1).
They all looked out of sync for much of the first half of Week 1. They started their day with three straight punts, followed by a bad fourth-and-1 attempt in which Taylor slipped and fell well short of the line of scrimmage. As the game progressed, however, the Charger offense seemed to find its rhythm. Using the threat of Taylor scrambling to keep the Cincinnati pass rush at bay, Los Angeles created huge running lanes for Austin Ekeler, who had the highest expected yards per carry in the NFL according next gen stats, and rookie Joshua Kelley, who made the most of his high-value touches in his debut with a fourth-quarter touchdown
Most notable in the passing game was the emergence of Mike Williams as the Chargers’ leader in targets and air yards. He made multiple acrobatic catches along the sideline and was clearly the first read on many of the Chargers’ pass plays. Though it should be mentioned, Williams is only one piece of a big three in the Charger receiving game, as Keenan Allen and tight end Hunter Henry each received eight targets apiece compared to Williams’ nine. In fact, the three make up one of the most consolidated passing offenses in the NFL after Week 1, accounting for about 70% of Los Angeles’ true weighted opportunity (WOPR) share.
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Kansas City Chiefs Breakdown
The Chiefs weren’t at their most lethal on Thursday Night Football, but they still graded as the sixth-best team in the NFL in terms of net expected points. Their offense was one of four teams to average over two expected points per drive, and even more exciting for Chiefs fans, their defense was sixth best in expected points per drive allowed. Clyde Edwards-Helaire received a bell cow workload right away, and if his work in the receiving game increases, he could push for the most valuable running back in fantasy football. Even as the sixth-highest-priced running back on the main slate, Edwards-Helaire remains a value based on elite workload and unprecedented touchdown upside.
It was Sammy Watkins’ night against Houston in Week 1, leading the Chiefs in targets and fantasy points. Play makers Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill each saw six looks apiece, but I’d expect that number to increase in Week 2. Demarcus Robinson also saw 15% of the team’s true weighted opportunity (WOPR) share, which wouldn’t typically be all that exciting, except it’s 15% of Patrick Mahomes’ offense. He was inches away from hauling in a 30-plus-yard touchdown in the first half of Week 1 and was thoroughly more involved in the passing game (six targets) than second-year speedster Mecole Hardman, who was used primarily in special teams.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Chargers 21
Alternative scenario: Mahomes throws for four touchdowns, and the Chiefs defense completely outclasses the Chargers’ new-look offense. Taylor and company can’t finish drives and go out with a whimper. Chiefs 34, Chargers 13
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