The Rams and Bills face off in battle of 2-0 teams in Buffalo this Sunday. Can Josh Allen and star wideout Stefon Diggs outduel Jared Goff at the LA offense? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 3 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Rams – Bills.
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Los Angeles Rams (22.5) @ Buffalo Bills (25) – 1 PM ET
Rams Passing Game
Maybe it’s a “Hard Knocks” thing, or a L.A. thing, but for whatever reason, both the Rams, helmed by quarterback Jared Goff, along with their So-Fi Stadium counterparts the Chargers, are building around two of the slowest paced, run heaviest approaches we’ve seen in quite some time. When comparing both pace of play and true neutral early down success rate to the rest of the league (the Rams are 31st, to the Chargers’ 32nd, in both metrics), it almost appears that Los Angeles, on a per-play basis, has drastically different goals. Goff’s air yards per attempt are 31st in the league, and his number of total pass attempts ranks 27th, and yet Goff has responded with efficient play during the Rams’ 2-0 start. His clean pocket completion percentage, catchable pass rate, pressured completion percentage, deep ball completion percentage, and adjusted yards per attempt are all in the top ten at the position. These are the metrics of a quality NFL quarterback, but due to scheme, it doesn’t translate directly to fantasy points. Especially without rushing upside, Goff remains a mid-tier fantasy quarterback option, and his 20 for 27, 267 yard, 3 TD and 0 interception day against Philadelphia should be considered a blueprint for how the Rams prefer to utilize Goff to manage the game. This Sunday, they head to 2-0 Buffalo, in what is likely the toughest defense they’ve faced this young season. The Bills rank 4th in team defensive grade, boasting the league’s third best pass rush team grade and 3rd best passing coverage team grade in the NFL. Goff will need his best game yet – or at least near mistake-free football – to get his team to win number three on the road.
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The Rams passing game is flatly distributed amongst four primary targets, and they’re comfortable changing their “primary” weapon from week to week. So far, Robert Woods has been the first option, but his true weighted opportunity share ranks outside the top 30 wide receivers in the league. Kupp’s ranking is outside the top 60 in the same metric, and yet they remain highly productive in the Rams’ spread-em-out scheme. Woods has caught eight of nine targets, and is 23rd among wide receivers in yards per route run. His WR19 pricetag on DraftKings is in-line with Awesemo’s projection, so even in a tough matchup, where he’ll likely see plenty of Tre’Davious White, Woods isn’t a player to entirely fade this week.
Cooper Kupp, like Woods, has only missed on one target, catching 9 of 10 targets, and ranks 20th in yards per route run at the position. The slot corner for Buffalo, Taron Johnson, hasn’t been a bright spot in the Buffalo secondary, which could lead to increased looks for Kupp, but it’s not out of the question that Tre White spends ample time covering Kupp rather than Woods. Needless to say, if White shadows one, expect a big game from the other. The most likely scenario however, is that White spends time covering both players.
We haven’t yet mentioned Tyler Higbee, the emerging star of this offense through the end of 2019, and into 2020, stamped by his multi-touchdown day against Philadelphia last week. Identical to Woods, he’s 8 of 9 on his targets, and his 2.54 yards per route run is seventh at the position. It’s not out of the question we see another big week soon, but it’s hard to expect a 28 point game again this Sunday. Rookie wideout Van Jefferson is, once again, highly efficient, catching five of seven targets, and actually possesses the best yards per route run of any of the Rams’ wide receivers. At 4,700 on DraftKings, it’s very easy to imagine a scenario where Jefferson gets enough usage (due to the Bills’ secondary’s focusing on Kupp, Woods, and Higbee) to get to 14.1, the score he needs for 3x value.
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Rams Running Game
Cam Akers started the game for the Rams for the second straight week, but went down with a rib injury in the first quarter on a red zone carry. He’s trending toward missing this week, though he’s listed as day-to-day by the team. He’s not a player I’m counting on this Sunday. Malcolm Brown, after a monster week 1, had 11 carries, including two in the red zone, on a 55% snap share, before hurting his pinky and exiting week 2 as well. It appears he’s on track to play this week, but time will tell if the hand injury will affect the running back’s ability to hold the ball while running between the tackles.
That left Darrell Henderson as the only healthy running back, and he performed admirably on 15 opportunities, against a seemingly lost Eagles defense in week 2. His 20.1 fantasy points was 11th best among running backs on the week, though it’s far from guaranteed he receives the same workload against Buffalo. Assuming Brown returns to the fold, we’d expect that opportunity numbers to come down.
Los Angeles has done a fantastic job at getting their running backs in advantageous positions, in fact, 90% of Malcolm Brown’s carries, and 100% of Darrell Henderson’s carries have come against either base fronts (7 men in the box) or light fronts (6 or less in the box), where rushing success is significantly higher. If there’s one advantageous matchup for the Rams against Buffalo, it’s in the rush game, as the Rams’ PFF net run advantage is second best on the slot. If the Rams gain control, as their Vegas total implies, we should expect a big day from the L.A. backfield.
Bills Passing Game
They haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of talent, playing the Jets and Dolphins in weeks 1 and 2, but Josh Allen has, so far, taken that proverbial “next step” in his fantasy football progression. While still maintaining an uptempo offense that is top-5 in pass attempts per game and top-5 in deep ball attempts, Allen has been much more accurate in 2020. He’s 6th in catchable pass rate, third in clean pocket completion percentage, third in adjusted yards per attempt, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback, leading to the top overall pass yardage output, and top completed air yards in the NFL through two weeks. He does still see a drop off in accuracy under pressure (as many quarterbacks do), dropping to 18th among quarterbacks. All of this has led to two straight top-3 finishes at the position. This week, as Los Angeles comes to town, Allen will rely on a distinct offensive line advantage, particularly in pass protection (Bills are 7th in PFF’s net pass block advantage), to maintain a clean pocket for Allen, and give his speedsters in the receiving game time to get open.
A tip of the cap, once again, to the Bills’ organization, who recognized a synergistic fit between their young quarterback and star receiver Stefon Diggs, exemplified by Diggs’ torching of the Dolphins in week 2, catching 8 of 13 targets for 153 yards (on a whopping 152 air yards), the second highest total of the week. Diggs has all the underlying usage metrics of a true alpha receiver in his new home, he’s top-12 in the NFL in target share, targets, air yards, red zone targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Let’s hope this fantastic connection continues as the competition gets tougher, like it does this week, as Jalen Ramsey will likely shadow Diggs. PFF grades the matchup as essentially dead even between the two, but the path to another 28 point score is much less clear than it was a week ago. His projection as the 16th wide receiver on Awesemo.com is lower than his WR12 salary on DraftKings.
John Brown is battling through a toe injury, and is questionable for Sunday, but it looks as though he’s trending towards playing. He’s now receiving quintessential second-receiver volume, due to the Bills’ pass volume, Brown’s opportunity numbers are on par with some team’s primary receiver. He’s 10th among wideouts with 116 air yards per game, and is back to commanding an elite level deep targets, right now sitting at 2.5 per game, which is top-5 in the NFL. Especially when healthy, Brown has slate breaking upside and a likely more advantageous matchup against the Rams’ secondary.
Cole Beasley (15% of true weighted opportunity share), Devin Singletary (10%) and Dawson Knox (9%) round out this passing attack, but don’t possess nearly the upside that Diggs or Brown do, and are at best tournament dart throws this weekend. All are projected essentially in-line with their DraftKings related pricing on Awesemo.com
Bills Running Game
Zack Moss has a toe injury, and did not practice on either Wednesday or Thursday. If the rookie Moss can’t go Sunday, then the backfield will belong entirely to Devin Singletary, drastically altering his ownership. This is something fantasy football players should absolutely keep an eye on, and keep in mind, as they build their player pools for week 3. If Singletary gets the full workload, he immediately becomes one of the most intriguing plays on the slate. Tacking on even 80% of Moss’ 8.5 targets per game and 2 targets per game to Singletary’s already substantial workload (15th in weighted opportunities per game), at 5,900 on DraftKings, would make Singletary one of the clearest value plays on the slate. Expect sky high ownership in this scenario, and for good reason.
If Moss goes, it’s possible that Singletary still takes over the backfield, but most likely, their usage cannibalizes each other, making both risky plays at their price, particularly in a game where the Bills aren’t favored. PFF grades don’t paint a very rosy picture for the Bills’ passing game, either, as they’re fourth worst in net rushing advantage.
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