After the Raiders’ surprising win against the Saints, New England heads to the Vegas “death star” for the Raiders’ toughest test yet. Can Derek Carr keep the Raiders perfect?  For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 3 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Patriots – Raiders.
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New England Patriots (26.75) @ Las Vegas Raiders (20.25) — 1 PM ET
Patriots Passing Game
Football’s just better with Cam Newton playing on Sundays. It’s been a joy, at least for this article’s author, to watch Newton return to form, in an offense tailor-made for his skillset. Through two weeks, Newton appears to be living up to the most bullish of expectations. He’s PFF’s 6th highest graded passer while throwing for just 24th most attempts, and 25th most deep ball attempts, in the league thus far. Despite the relative lack of volume, Cam is 8th in passing yards, and most excitedly, has been completely unfazed by pressure, ranking 7th in the NFL in pressured completion percentage. Even with the running back position in flux, Newton has been highly effective on play action, ranking in the top 12 among quarterbacks. He’s actually (ever so slightly) underperforming from a clean pocket, ranking 19th.
Where Newton has really improved, at least thus far, has been on deep passing, defying his perception as an inaccurate, run-first quarterback. He ranks second in deep ball completion percentage, likely contributing to his below average attempt numbers (completing deep passes leads to large yardage gains, which in-turn makes a team less reliant on future deep throws – at least within the current drive – as they’re now closer to the opponent’s goal line).
It looks like the increased accuracy from Newton may mean we will have two fantasy viable receivers as the 2020 season progresses. Julian Edelman has been transformed into a big play threat, his average depth of target of 12.5 is closer to the traditional downfield playmakers than volume-slot receivers, the role Edelman typically played in the Tom Brady-run offense. It vastly outpaces Edelman’s career average depth of target (8.0) as well. Edelman has a yards per route run north of 4.0 (even 2.5 is considered exceptional), that leads all wide receivers with 5 or more targets in this metric. Knowing that receiving 172 air yards in a game, as he did in week 2 is in Edelman’s range of outcomes, drastically increases his ceiling as well, and his primary matchup, Lamarcus Joyner has graded out quite poorly by PFF, ranking Edelman’s matchup as one of the 10 most advantageous on the main slate.
N’Keal Harry will likely see Trayon Mullen across from him, who’s in bottom-third PF defensive grade among cornerbacks this season. Harry has been a bright spot in the new-look New England offense, ranking 15th among receivers in yards after the catch, and tenth in total catches. He’s replaced Edelman as a short-area target, as his average target distance of 5.6 ranks outside the top-90 among wideouts. He hasn’t received a single target of more than 20 air yards so far this season. Nonetheless, Harry’s 24% true weighted opportunity share ranks 21st among wideouts, making him an intriguing play as fantasy gamers gravitate towards Edelman. Harry’s projections outpace his salary-based expectation on Awesemo.com this weekend. Damiere Byrd also got involved last weekend, receiving 9 targets, after getting 0 in week 1. Byrd appears to be a game-specific third option, but in this offense that is getting plenty of opportunities to score, any full time player is worth considering in lineups, and Byrd is in on 94% of the Patriots’ passing plays. He should absolutely be on fantasy gamers’ radar.
If James White remains out this weekend, Rex Burkhead should once again command the backfield passing touches. Burkhead’s true weighted opportunity share was within one percentage point of White’s week 1 usage. Burkhead is the obvious fill-in back, and performed admirably, producing 11.8 yards per reception against the Seahawks.
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Patriots Running Game
It genuinely does not matter that Cam got stopped at the goal line in a Sunday Night game for the ages last week. As a football fan how cool is it that a team (and a good one, at that), with the game on the line, chooses to run power with their quarterback. Newton is a more than capable passer when given time in the pocket, but the goal line usage usage in the rushing game is unprecedented, at least in the modern NFL. Newton is #1 among quarterbacks in rush attempts per game, #2 in rush yards per game, #1 in goal line carries per game, and #1 in rushing TDs. He’s mispriced as QB7, as his ceiling is on par with other rushing-passing slate breakers like Lamar Jackson. He could easily be a top-3 fantasy football finisher against Vegas this Sunday.
As PFF grades project a distinct advantage for the Patriots in the passing game, a likely game script involves the Patriots passing efficiently in the first half, and running the clock out in the second half. In this scenario, it’s possible Sony Michel has viability in tournaments. With so little receiving upside (he has zero receptions in 2020), he’ll need a touchdown to hit, so it’s extremely difficult to trust him. The only running back worth consideration is Burkhead due to his work in the passing game.
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Raiders Passing Game
It’s not flashy by any means, and it’s not flawless either, but Derek Carr has done just enough as a game manager in weeks 1 and 2 to put his team in position to win, and they’ve done just that. Still helming a mid-tier offense in terms of aggressiveness (Raiders are 18th in pass plays per game and 25th in air yards per game), Carr has been accurate and consistent with his passes, placing 9th in both clean pocket completion percentage and in red zone completion percentage. PlayerProfiler charted Carr’s passes as the most accurate, on average, of any quarterback in 2020 so far. And in spite of low air yards totals, he’s setting up his receivers for big plays, as Raiders receivers rank third in yards after catch per target. Carr ranks 12th among quarterbacks in my composite efficiency metric, highlighted in the weekly data deep dive. Carr’s opponent this Sunday, the Patriots, aren’t nearly the same unit from a year ago. Cornerback Stephon Gillmore ranks well outside the top-40 in PFF cornerback grades, and only the third highest cornerback grade on his own team. With continued turnover in the front seven as well, Awesemo.com’s projections sees Carr as fairly priced, as the 22nd highest priced QB on the slate.
Darren Waller is a baller. Ranking 2nd overall in true weighted opportunity share, and first among tight ends, Waller’s numbers are improved even from his breakout 2019 campaign. He ranks seventh in yards per route run, fourth in targets per snap, second in yards after the catch, and second in fantasy points per game. He’s officially entered the upper echelon of tight ends, and like Carr, even in a tough matchup, Awesemo.com’s projections remain in lockstep with his TE2 pricetag on DraftKings this weekend.
Henry Ruggs is slated for the toughest matchup in the secondary this weekend. He’ll likely see New England corner J.C. Jackson, PFF’s 15th highest graded cornerback in 2020. PFF ranks this matchup as a major disadvantage for Ruggs, but he also won’t likely be shadowed for the entire game either. Look for Carr to pick his spots with Ruggs, but it’s highly unlikely Ruggs gets blanked in this spot, with so many points expected to be scored. Ruggs’ underlying metrics are sound, as he’s received more than one deep target each game, earned a 20% target share and ranks 6th in yards of separation when targeted. He’s got all the makings of a number one wideout, but it’s still difficult to project week 3 as Ruggs’ breakout party. Awesemo.com’s projections are slightly bearish on Ruggs relative to his $5,400 salary.
Josh Jacobs has commanded a healthy 10% of the team’s true weighted opportunity share to go along with his stellar workload on the ground, he’s in-line with Hunter Renfrow (9%), Foster Moreau (7%) and Bryan Edwards (7%). With the Raiders graded in the bottom-third of teams in PFF’s net pass advantage, none of these options, besides Jacobs of course, should be on fantasy radars for week 3. The one exception might be Moreau as punt-play $4,000 tight end. It won’t take much production to outperform the TE47 salary.
Raiders Running Game
In my weekly data deep dive, I highlighted Josh Jacobs ascendence to the top-tier of fantasy football running backs, particularly with the injuries to superstar’s Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. Jacobs has been a usage hog through two week, as he’s 6th in opportunity share and first in weighted opportunities (that rank targets much higher than carries). He’s also touched the ball 11 times in the red zone, helping him nab three TDs in week 1. Unfortunately, he disappointed for fantasy gamers who trusted him on Monday Night, getting vultured at the goalline (on Jalen Richard’s only carry, no less) but the usage is perfect and the efficiency metrics are superb. Jacobs ranked first in total evaded tackles with 23. While he’s carrying the questionable tag after a hip injury sustained in the second half against the Saints, he’s trending toward playing, and receiving his typical monster workload. He’s a top 7 option on this slate, and a viable consideration as a cash game running back.
Devontae Booker is seeing more playing time than the aforementioned Richard, though it’s mostly to spell Jacobs. The Raiders clearly trust Booker more as a between the tackles runner, giving him 5.5 opportunities per game. He’s commanded a 13% snap share both games. Interestingly enough (and a great reminder about how valuable goal line work is for running backs), Booker’s 3 goal line carries are top-40 at the position, despite barely receiving much playing time at all.
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