The Steelers are riding high after two straight victories to start their season, while the Texans, faced with the toughest opening schedule of any team in the NFL, look to avoid falling to 0-3. Can Deshaun Watson get the Texans’ season back on track? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 3 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Steelers – Texans.
CLICK HERE TO RETURN TO THE FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS HUB
For a full list of all our NFL DFS and fantasy football content this season, check out the NFL content schedule.
And don’t forget to join Matt Savoca and Dave Loughran, every Thursday morning at 11 ET on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
Pittsburgh Steelers (24.25) at Houston Texans (20.75) – 1 p.m. ET
Steelers Passing Game
After a resounding win over Broncos to move to 2-0, the Steelers offense seems to be clicking in all phases heading into Week 3 against the Texans. Armed with the top pass protection rate in the NFL, Ben Roethlisberger has passed for a solid 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt in two games, 13th best among quarterbacks. His fantasy points per dropback rank 14th, and his true completion percentage ranks 12th. Though it may not be at 2018 levels, Roethlisberger is still tossing a ton of deep passes (his eight total deep targets rank ninth) but hasn’t quite found the touch, only completing 38% of those attempts. This week against Houston, if PFF Grades are any indication, the Steelers should focus on beating the Texans through the air, as the Steelers possess the fourth-highest net team receiver advantage on the slate (PFF Receiver Grades vs. Opponent Coverage Grades).
It appears the Steelers have stuck mid-round gold once again, as 2019 third-round pick Diontae Johnson (28% true weighted opportunity share, eighth among receivers) has become the clear-cut first option in the offense. He’s being used all over the field, earning a 32% target share (fourth) and 36% air yard share (15th). He ranks 12th in yards after the catch, and despite only scoring one time thus far, he ranks 19th at the position in points per game. When also considering he’s returning punts (which nearly led to an extra touchdown last week), Johnson is the most heavily utilized Steeler receiver by a large margin. His projection is in lockstep with his WR24 salary on DraftKings. Johnson’s PFF receiving grades vastly outpace his likely cornerback matchup this Sunday, Bradley Roby. Though Johnson won’t be matched with Roby 100% of the time, the matchup ranks as one of the most advantageous one-on-one matchups on the slate.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is back in the secondary receiver role (16% true weighted opportunity share, second on the team) where he thrived in his first two seasons, posting a solid average of 58.5 receiving yards on 6.5 targets over the first two weeks. He’s also been heavily utilized in the slot once again as his 75 slot snaps rank sixth at the position. He remains a favorite of Reothlisberger’s near the end zone, commanding three red zone targets and catching all three. His true catch rate of 100% and 36.5 yards after catch per game indicate he’s capable of having huge games on limited volume, particularly when he’s in sync with Roethlisberger. His primary matchup with Eric Murray in the slot should not scare us at all (PFF ranks this as a 25% advantage toward Smith-Schuster).
Eric Ebron (12% true weighted opportunity share), James Washington (12%) and Chase Claypool (10%) make up the auxiliary weapons for the Pittsburgh passing attack. They all can be considered for tournaments, particularly Ebron, who presents interesting value as the 26th-highest-priced tight end on the slate. At $4,700, a 14-point game would approach triple value. The rookie Claypool could see more looks, especially after his brilliant 80-yard touchdown in Week 2, but projecting an uptick in usage is notoriously hard to do. He’s merely a dart throw at this time.
Related NFL DFS + Fantasy Football Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
- First Look: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
- NFL DFS Picks: Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 3 Fantasy Lineup Constructions
- From the Slot: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades
- The Slant And Go: Big NFL DFS Value In Week 3 As Injuries Plague The League
Steelers Running Game
To coach Mike Tomlin’s credit, he stayed true to his word regarding running back James Conner. He noted that if Conner was healthy, the team would ride him, and that’s exactly what they did in their Week 2 win against Denver. It was a far cry from Week 1 against the Giants, when Conner tweaked his ankle in the first half and failed to return, with Benny Snell racking up over 100 yards in his stead.
A week later, things are back to normal after leaving Week 2 without further aggravation to the injury. Conner carried it 16 times and added two receptions, including six red zone touches, finishing with an extremely efficient 6.7 yards per touch. Conner is once again slated for a high workload in a game with a Vegas total in a favorable matchup. This could easily be a game where the Steelers go pass heavy to start the game and score the requisite points needed to grind out the win in the second half. If that’s the case, expect a massive workload for Conner. Even as the 11th-highest-priced running back on the slate, Conner still presents solid value. He should absolutely be considered this weekend.
Editors Note:
Hedging your NFL DFS lineups has never been easier or more efficient, with the new Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Simply click on the best that you want to make and OddsShopper searches all the big betting sites and finds the best price for your bet. Click on the image below to start shopping!
Looks like we’ve got a nice half-point advantage if you’re betting the Steelers on one book…
Texans Passing Game
The Texans have had a rough go of things early on, mostly due to an absolutely brutal opening schedule, facing the defending champs on opening night and playing against arguably the most talented roster in the NFL in the Baltimore Ravens. Now, Watson and the Houston passing game need to find its way against arguably the most impressive pass rush in the NFL. And it doesn’t look great on paper. The Texans come into the week with the worst-ranked net pass blocking advantage score, indicating the pass rush of Pittsburgh vastly outgrades the pass blocking grades of the offensive line. Once again, Watson will likely be forced to make magic happen within a collapsing pocket, either by extending plays or scrambling.
And it’s a shame because Watson has been masterful when given time to operate the offense as dictated. Watson has posted stellar marks in clean pocket completion percentage, ranking top in the NFL and seventh in play-action completion percentage. When under pressure, however, Watson’s accuracy has dropped precipitously, as he’s only completing a third of his passes under duress thus far.
One personnel group you can’t fault for Houston’s woes on offense are the receivers. Though still adjusting to life without DeAndre Hopkins and for much of Week 2 without Will Fuller, Houston receivers have averaged 2.5 yards of separation at target, seventh in the league. Brandin Cooks emerged from a relatively quiet Week 1 to post five receptions (on eight targets) for 95 yards, including an impressive 124 air yards. If one were subscribe to the belief that Cooks’ concussions in Weeks 5 and 8 last season would take an entire offseason for recovery, a reasonable consideration for this non medical expert, we’re seeing Cooks at the healthiest he’s been in nearly a year. And a year ago, Cooks was on fire. In Weeks 2 through 4 of 2019, he posted three straight weeks in the top 24 wide receivers. With Fuller expected back on the field Sunday, Cooks may once again be ready to thrive in a “secondary speedster” role.
It will be interesting to see how Pittsburgh deploys cornerbacks Steven Nelson and Joe Haden against Cooks and Fuller. Both matchups grade out as relative toss-ups in terms of PFF grades. Expect Houston to move Fuller and Cooks around the formation, searching for advantageous matchups. Fuller’s health is always a concern, but without an injury designation heading into Sunday, it’s all systems go once again. The question will be whether he’ll be able to shake loose from this Pittsburgh secondary, who will likely sell out to stop big plays, before the pass rush gets home. Fuller’s projection on Awesemo is slightly bearish compared to his DraftKings salary-based expectation.
Randall Cobb (12% true weighted opportunity share, 97th ranked averaged depth of target) will maintain his underneath role as a traditional third receiver, while primary back David Johnson (10%, 30th among running backs) should continue to command a solid amount of the passing volume. Your best dart throw pick from the bunch might be Jordan Akins (11%). At $5,000 on DraftKings, there are cheaper options, but it’s possible Watson will be forced to dump the ball off underneath more than he wants to, and in that case, Akins (and Cobb) could see increased touches with the possibility of finding the end zone.
Texans Running Game
It’ll be tough to trust him, but from a guaranteed usage perspective, you could do much worse than Johnson, who is eighth in raw targets, fourth in opportunity share and first in snap share. The targets have been the saving grace thus far since he ranks 61st among running backs in red zone touches and has a putrid yards per route run of 0.72. Being 20th in total touches is enough to be fantasy viable, however, and as a high-touch, low owned option in tournaments, he could be an excellent contrarian play in DFS lineups this weekend.
And don’t forget about Watson, whose 5.5 carries per game rank seventh at the position, and his 22 rush yards rank ninth. He won’t get designed rushes at the level of Lamar Jackson, but Watson remains an elite athlete and true rushing threat with both big-play potential and touchdown potential near the goal line.
CLICK HERE TO RETURN TO THE FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS HUB
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.
