The final main slate of the 2020-2021 NFL season is here and it’s our last chance to find cheap value plays of the year. For one more time, we can dive into the depths of receiving rotations and rummage through the wasteland of tight ends to find players capable of hitting value at their low salaries. Here are the best NFL DFS and daily fantasy football picks values across the board for the Conference Championship NFL DFS main on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NFL DFS Picks: Conference Championship
Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Quarterback
Josh Allen (DraftKings: $6,900, FanDuel: $8,500)
Allen projects as the best value across all positions on both sites this week, and that should come as no surprise. On DraftKings his season-long points per game average is identical to Mahomes. His weekly average is within a tenth of a point of Mahomes on FanDuel. Despite this, he’s far less costly than Mahomes on both major sites.Â
There’s no reason not to get down Allen either. This game sets up perfectly for him. In games that feature a final total of 50 or more points, Allen becomes a fantasy fiend:
- Under 50 points: 227 yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions
- Over 50 Points: 325.8 yards, 2.8 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions
He throws for an incredible amount of yards and scores far more often while making hardly any more mistakes. As a runner, his numbers are unaffected. He has earned fewer rush attempts in shootouts this year but makes up for it with more touchdown upside. Allen’s split between high and low totals as a runner is a difference of less than 0.2 fantasy points. In a game with a 54-point total versus the league’s best offense, expect Allen to erupt as a passer without sacrificing anything as a runner.
Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Running Back
Devin Singletary ($4,500 DraftKings / $5,800 FanDuel)
Singletary may have busted last week, but there were a few positive indicators in his 25-yard rushing line. He added three receptions for 12 yards and logged an 84% snap share. Without Zack Moss available, the Bills gave all but two of their running back carries to Singletary. No other Buffalo running back saw a target, and T.J. Yeldon, Singletary’s backup, logged just two carries and no targets. Both of his carries came on the Bills’ final drive when they were up 17-3 and facing a backup quarterback. Singletary is going to be an every-down running back and costs nothing more than a pure backup does. Don’t let his dud last week fool you. Singletary is more than worth his price this week.
Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Wide Receiver
John Brown ($4,300 DraftKings / $5,600 FanDuel)
This article was not meant to be a Bills puff piece, but both major sites kept the prices on them particularly low. Stacking up Bills in cash games isn’t too bad because most of them are cheap. An Allen-Singletary-Brown lineup features more Bills than any other team (most likely), but the same lineup could still spend nearly as much on Packers or Chiefs players, balancing the allocation of cap spent per team. In tournaments, finding ways to leverage this by playing far more Bills in any lineup than most tournaments players or even fading them all outright are both viable paths to first place.
Brown checks in as the third and final Buffalo player of our four values in this article for one simple reason: He sees a lot of passes from Allen. Anyone who does that at these absurdly low prices is going to be a strong play in a field of just four offenses. Through two playoff games, Brown has earned a 20.8% target share in his two playoff games and saw 11 targets last week. That was as many as Stefon Diggs and nine more than Cole Beasley. Throughout the regular season, Brown posted an 11.8 aDOT. That led Buffalo’s trio of starting receivers. Targets plus air yards backed by an elite quarterback tends to equal fantasy points in the long run.Â
Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Tight End
Robert Tonyan ($3,600 DraftKings / $5,700 FanDuel)
Tonyan came in as a poor value for the latter part of the regular season because he was scoring touchdowns at a far higher rate than his volume would indicate. He was greatly out-producing his expected fantasy points based on his volume, and his price reflected the fantasy points he had scored and not what he was expected to score going forward. His price has come down from $5,100 three weeks ago to just $3,600 on DraftKings now. Without gaudy touchdown production needed to pay off his price, we can comfortably go back to Tonyan as a touchdown-dependent punt play. He also has a good chance of scoring relative to the other cheap tight ends as well. Tonyan finished the regular season with 11 red zone targets and 10 red zone receptions. His reception total in the red zone was seventh among tight ends and second on his team.
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