Neil Orfield’s NFL DFS Showdown Strategy: Stafford an Elite Stud for Rams vs. 49ers Week 4 MNF (October 3)

For nearly a year now, I’ve been hosting the High Stakes podcast for Stokastic, interviewing DFS pros on a range of topics. There have been a lot of recurring themes on the show, but the most relevant for this article: DFS pros love NFL DFS Showdown.

That’s because a lot of casual NFL fans enter the Showdown fray as a way to have some action on island games. As a result, DraftKings and FanDuel offer enormous contests with generous prize pools. The contests become more difficult to win, too, when there are hundreds of thousands of entrants, but with a large portion of the new players being casual, the increase in difficulty pales in comparison to the increase in prize pools. It’s a tradeoff DFS pros will gladly make.

My goal with these Showdown articles — which I’ll be writing for each Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football NFL DFS slate this season — is to help you attack the largest-field DraftKings GPP like a pro. There are three main components to discuss when it comes to Showdown, and I’ll break them down accordingly: Projection, Correlation and Differentiation.

Before reading this piece, you may find it helpful to read my evergreen piece about how to attack NFL Showdown GPPs more generally: https://www.stokastic.com/nfl/draftkings-showdown-simplified-tips-tricks-making-big-money-nfl-dfs-island-games-2022/

Week 4 NFL DFS Showdown: Rams vs. 49ers MNF

Projection

The goal in DFS is to make the lineup that puts up the most points and a natural starting point is looking at individual players who are likely to put up high scores or high point-per-dollar scores. Some pros run simulations or create their own projections to achieve this. Many others, like myself, rely on the Stokastic projections and tools to determine which players should be core pieces of our lineups. I primarily look at the base projections and the “Top Showdown Plays” Tool, which publishes results of 10,000 advanced simulations run by the Stokastic team.

Studs

These are simply the top projected players on the slate. I’d recommend having at least three of these players in just about every lineup you make tonight, either as captain or in a flex spot.

  • Cooper Kupp ($12,000) is the most expensive player on the slate and also has the highest projection by a wide margin.
  • Deebo Samuel ($10,400) has the second-highest projection on the slate at the third-highest salary.
  • Matthew Stafford ($10,600) has the third-highest projection on the slate at the second-highest salary.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo ($10,000) has the fourth-highest projection at the fourth-highest salary.
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. ($8,200) has the fifth-highest projection on the slate. He played 79 percent of snaps for the 49ers in week three and led the team with 12 carries.
  • Tyler Higbee ($5,200) is third on the Rams in routes run with 100 and second in targets with 22 through three weeks.
  • George Kittle ($6,600) made his season debut in week three, playing 91 percent of 49ers snaps and seeing five targets.
  • Brandon Aiyuk ($7,600) leads the 49ers in snaps with 184 and routes run with 88 through three weeks. He is also second on the team with 17 targets.
  • Allen Robinson ($6,200) is second on the Rams with 109 routes run, though he is fourth in targets with just 12 through three weeks.

Point-Per-Dollar Plays

These are just a few players who will be featured throughout my lineups due to their high projected points per dollar. At the same time, because I’ll typically have at least three studs in each lineup, the top points-per-dollar plays are often players I’ll be pivoting away from in some spots in favor of players who project a bit worse but will also garner lower ownership. I’m also excluding any player with a projection below three fantasy points from this list.

  • Jauan Jennings ($2,000) has been targeted 11 times on 56 routes run through three games. A single splash play would be enough to pay off his low salary.
  • 49ers Defense ($4,200) and Rams Defense ($3,600) are both in play at low salaries. Stafford has thrown five interceptions through three weeks, and Garoppolo threw 12 interceptions in 2021.
  • Robbie Gould ($4,000) and Matt Gay ($3,800) are both in play at reasonable salaries.
  • Ben Skowronek ($4,400) is fourth on the Rams with 98 routes run and third in targets with 13.

Correlation

In NFL DFS, correlations are endless, both positive and negative. Some are obvious — QBs have positive correlation with the WRs on their team. Some need a bit more research — how do kickers fare when a team’s backup running back exceeds his projection? Some correlations I like in this game:

  • Stafford at captain with at least two Rams pass catchers in the flex. Due to the scoring on DraftKings, where receivers get a full point per reception and also more points per yard and per touchdown than quarterbacks, it is difficult for non-rushing quarterbacks to be optimal at captain with one or fewer pass catchers in the flex, because a non-rushing quarterback doesn’t score points without involving pass catchers and if a single pass catcher gets too much volume, he will outscore the quarterback. Stafford has not rushed for a touchdown since 2016. There is room for Stafford to be the optimal captain with just Kupp in the flex, because Kupp’s high price tag of $18,000 at captain could be prohibitive. It is also possible, given Kupp’s price tag, for just one less expensive Rams pass catcher to be in the flex–if Kupp gets high enough volume to score points for Stafford but not enough to be optimal with his price tag. But the most likely scenario is that if Stafford is the optimal captain, he’ll bring at least two pass catchers along for the ride in flex spots.
  • Garoppolo at captain with at least two 49ers pass catchers in the flex. The same reasoning applies to Garoppolo. He has yet to reach 100 rushing yards in a season in his entire career.
  • Stafford in the flex with at least one Rams pass catcher either in the flex or at captain.
  • Garoppolo in the flex with at least one 49ers pass catcher either in the flex or at captain.

Note: This section is about correlations, not player suggestions. These are recommendations for correlations if you have either QB in your captain spot, not necessarily suggestions that they’re the first place you should go.

Differentiation

Making highly projected lineups with smart correlations will separate you from the lowest level Showdown players, but there are many very smart casual players as well. Differentiation is the last step to separating pros from Joes.

In just about any DFS GPP, finding low-owned gems is key because lower ownership reduces the field of lineups you’re competing against when the player has a 99th-percentile outcome. Taking it to the extreme, just as a thought exercise, let’s say that Wilson scores 100 fantasy points tonight. You’re not just going to need him, you’ll need him in the captain spot (150 fantasy points). If 20,000 lineups in your contest have Wilson in the captain spot, you’ve essentially reduced the field of lineups you’re competing with to 20,000. If only 200 lineups have Wilson at captain? Now we’re talking.

On NFL Showdown slates there is an additional factor for large-field GPPs. We don’t just want to find seldomly used players; we want to find seldomly used LINEUPS. Why? Well, I’ll give you two examples from last year:

  • On September 20, 2021, DraftKings had a Milly Maker for the Packers vs. Lions tilt, but the top lineup was duplicated 231 times. Rather than winning a million dollars, the users who entered those 231 lineups had to split the top 231 prizes, for just a bit over $6,000 each. That’s despite having everything go their way, which requires an extreme amount of luck.
  • On October 11, 2021, we saw the other end of the spectrum: user rcoho1984 played a unique lineup in the Ravens vs. Colts Milly Maker, taking home not just a million dollars but a ticket to the Tournament of Champions.

If you’re going to win — which takes a lot of luck, regardless of how well your lineup projects — I’d suggest making it count. I’m not necessarily concerned with making an entirely unique lineup like rcoho1984 did every single time, but I aim to be a lot closer to their unique lineup than those that were duplicated 231 times.

Some Easy Tricks

Low-owned players. Yup, even if you’re using other tricks to get unique, it’s still a good idea to play a few players who won’t be getting much ownership. Some low-owned players to consider:

  • Kyle Juszczyk ($1,000) has rushed the ball just twice and been targeted four times through three games. Not a lot of opportunity, but he is always live to vulture a touchdown. And if he does, it will likely be enough to pay off his price tag.
  • Jordan Mason ($1,200) saw five snaps in week three, the first snaps of his career, and had one carry. He is unlikely to see many opportunities with Wilson healthy, but at low ownership he might be worth a few shots in 150 lineups. He could see garbage time work and would likely see additional injuries with a Wilson injury.
  • Brandon Powell ($3,000) has been targeted just five times on 11 routes run through three games. He is nothing but a large-field tournament dart throw.
  • Ray-Ray McCloud ($2,400) has been targeted four times on 25 routes run and makes for a fine large-field dart throw.

Embrace lineups missing some correlation pieces or even with some negative correlation. Generally, highly correlated lineups will be over-owned, whereas the field will avoid negative correlation at all costs. If you want to read my reasoning, check out the evergreen piece I linked near the top of this page. In some of my lineups, I like to see the following:

  • Quarterback against opposing Defense.
  • Pass Catcher at Captain without including the QB at Flex.
  • Multiple Running Backs from the same team in a lineup.

Latest NFL DFS Content


Leave salary on the table. This is the easiest way to lower your duplicates. Casual players assume that if they have salary left over, they should upgrade. The problem with this approach is that it almost inevitably leads to highly duplicated lineups. How much salary should you leave on the table? That’s up to you. If it’s less than $600 and you haven’t gotten extremely unique with player selections and weird correlations, it’s likely you’ll have to split any winnings with many other entries.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

[NFLPAGE]

Author
Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

NBA DFS Projections

NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability

NBA DFS Ownership: Night Slate

NBA DFS Ownership – Express Slates

NBA DFS Ownership – Main Slate

NBA Data Central

Top Batters Tool: DraftKings

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.