This NFL special edition betting article will examine the best betting picks and NFL player props for Thanksgiving Day. Using the Awesemo NFL Player Props Betting Tool, bettors can maximize their profits and see the best bets with the highest expected return on investment. Also, bettors can use OddsShopper to find which sportsbooks are offering the best prices for these prop bets. Here are the four best NFL betting picks and player props for Thanksgiving Day’s slate.
NFL Betting Picks & Best Player Props
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NFL Betting Picks & Best Thanksgiving Day Player Props
David Montgomery Over 75.50 Rushing Yards
This prop appears to be the biggest give me as long as Montgomery gets enough carries. While Chicago may give Andy Dalton a little more freedom than Justin Fields, the weather conditions may be more conducive to controlling the ball, which would suit the Bears just fine. Chicago is the second most run-heavy offense in the league. The Bears run the ball 48.2% of their plays, and they average 132.1 yards on the ground a game. Meanwhile, the Lions rank 28th DVOA against the run.
Montgomery has been pretty effective over his last three appearances producing 4.5 yards a carry on 50 attempts. Overall, he has two 100-yard games in six appearances, including 106 yards and two scores in the first matchup against the Lions. Montgomery has run well against the Lions in his five career appearances and is projected for 89.89 rushing yards tonight. The over has a 66% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 25% according to OddsShopper.
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Cole Beasley Over 40.5Â Receiving Yards
With the Bills going against a Saints defense ranked No. 1 DVOA against the run, Josh Allen will likely be called upon to sling the ball around tonight. Which could mean a big game for Beasley as the Saints’ top cornerback Marshon Lattimore is expected to shadow Stefon Diggs. While Lattimore has done a good job containing the opposing team’s leading receiver, the Saints have allowed other players to run wild, especially after the catch. Marcus Johnson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Chris Godwin, Freddie Swain, Adam Humphries, and DeAndre Carter are among teams No. 2 and No. 3 receivers who have taken advantage of the other members of New Orleans secondary for big games recently.
The Saints allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes to wide receivers for 181 yards, with 51.4% of those yards coming after the catch. Part of New Orlean’s issues against the pass is that the Saints struggle to pressure the quarterback, allowing receivers to get loose or break off their routes. Beasley is great at this as well as running after the catch. He is projected for 55.67 yards tonight. The over has a 67% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 22%.
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Dak Prescott Over 265 Passing Yards
In a game that is expected to see 53 points put on the board, Prescott has a chance to boom against a Raiders’ team that has seen 96 points scored against them over the last three games. Prescott has had moments of brilliance this year while the Raiders’ secondary has been shredded by Patrick Mahomes and Teddy Bridgewater recently. Prescott won’t have wide receiver Amari Cooper (Covid -19) for the second straight, but he still has plenty of weapons at his disposal with CeeDee Lamb (head injury) expected to play. Prescott has thrown at least 31 passes in each of his last five appearances and is projected for 279.38 passing yards this afternoon. The over has a 61% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 15% according to our sports betting model on OddsShopper.
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Hunter Renfrow Over 50.50 Receiving Yards
Renfrow has become the Raiders’ most reliable receiver. Renfrow has hauled in 25 of 30 targets for the 185 yards over the last four games. While he has not put up a ton of yards this year, the Cowboys’ secondary is a good matchup for him. Dallas is giving up 170 yards a game to opposing wide receivers, the 11th most in the league. Kendrick Bourne, Tim Patrick,  Jerry Jeudy, and Tyreek Hill are receivers that have garnered at least 50 yards against the Cowboys over the last four games. The Cowboys are also prone to give up big plays through the air as they have allowed 39 plays to go for 20 or more yards. Renfrow is projected for 67.15 receiving yards this afternoon. The over has a 65% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 21% according to our model.
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