NFL DFS Boom/Bust Probability Tool
Below you can see Stokastic’s NFL Boom/Bust Probability Tool for this week’s slate. This data gives the user an idea how likely a player is to meet their ceiling and floor, relative to their median projections.
Legend
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fpts.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance
Floor: 25th percentile performance
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in perfect lineup that slate
DraftKings
| Name | Team | Salary | Position | Projection | Slate | Own% | Optimal% | Leverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Team | Salary | Position | Projection | Std Dev | Ceiling | Floor | Bust% | Boom% | Slate | Own% | Optimal% | Leverage |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 10,600 | QB | 20.3 | 7.8 | 25.6 | 15.1 | 88.8 | 0.1 | Main | 14.8 | ||
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | 8,000 | RB | 14.5 | 6.6 | 19.0 | 10.1 | 65.7 | 1.3 | Main | 38.8 | ||
| Jerick McKinnon | KC | 200 | RB | 3.1 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 6.3 | 0.7 | Main | |||
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 1,200 | RB | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | -0.6 | 45.8 | 0.0 | Main | 4.3 | ||
| La'Mical Perine | KC | 200 | RB | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Rashee Rice | KC | 7,600 | WR | 15.9 | 7.9 | 21.2 | 10.5 | 51.9 | 4.5 | Main | 33.9 | ||
| Skyy Moore | KC | 2,000 | WR | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 80.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | 3,000 | WR | 4.6 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 55.5 | 0.1 | Main | 10.2 | ||
| Richie James Jr. | KC | 400 | WR | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | -0.1 | 13.3 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Justin Watson | KC | 2,400 | WR | 3.6 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 51.5 | 0.1 | Main | 22.1 | ||
| Mecole Hardman Jr. | KC | 1,600 | WR | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | -0.3 | 60.9 | 0.0 | Main | 18.7 | ||
| Travis Kelce | KC | 10,200 | TE | 18.9 | 9.1 | 25.0 | 12.8 | 65.3 | 5.4 | Main | 33.4 | ||
| Noah Gray | KC | 1,800 | TE | 3.5 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 37.1 | 0.3 | Main | 20.4 | ||
| Blake Bell | KC | 200 | TE | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Harrison Butker | KC | 5,000 | K | 7.3 | 5.0 | 10.6 | 3.9 | 70.7 | 0.1 | Main | |||
| Chiefs | KC | 3,400 | DST | 6.4 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 2.9 | 47.9 | 3.0 | Main | 23.4 | ||
| Brock Purdy | SF | 10,000 | QB | 17.3 | 7.4 | 22.2 | 12.3 | 92.7 | 0.0 | Main | 38.3 | ||
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 12,000 | RB | 23.3 | 8.6 | 29.1 | 17.4 | 65.9 | 3.6 | Main | 63.7 | ||
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | 2,800 | RB | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 99.7 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Jordan Mason | SF | 600 | RB | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 3.7 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | 800 | RB | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 22.6 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Deebo Samuel | SF | 9,200 | WR | 15.5 | 7.9 | 20.8 | 10.2 | 72.2 | 1.3 | Main | 12.2 | ||
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 8,800 | WR | 13.5 | 8.0 | 18.9 | 8.2 | 75.8 | 1.0 | Main | 46.7 | ||
| Jauan Jennings | SF | 4,000 | WR | 3.7 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 84.4 | 0.0 | Main | 0.9 | ||
| Ray-Ray McCloud III | SF | 200 | WR | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 6.9 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Chris Conley | SF | 200 | WR | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.3 | 5.4 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| George Kittle | SF | 6,400 | TE | 12.4 | 7.1 | 17.2 | 7.6 | 55.3 | 4.7 | Main | 51.9 | ||
| Charlie Woerner | SF | 200 | TE | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Brayden Willis | SF | 200 | TE | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Jake Moody | SF | 5,200 | K | 9.7 | 5.1 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 56.2 | 0.3 | Main | |||
| 49ers | SF | 4,400 | DST | 6.8 | 5.1 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 63.8 | 1.0 | Main | 21.7 |
FanDuel
| Name | Team | Salary | Position | Projection | Slate | Own% | Optimal% | Leverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Team | Salary | Position | Projection | Std Dev | Ceiling | Floor | Bust% | Boom% | Slate | Own% | Optimal% | Leverage |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 15,000 | QB | 19.7 | 6.9 | 24.4 | 15.1 | 98.5 | 0.0 | Main | 22.1 | ||
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | 12,500 | RB | 12.7 | 5.5 | 16.4 | 8.9 | 91.5 | 0.0 | Main | 31.9 | ||
| Jerick McKinnon | KC | 6,000 | RB | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 99.6 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 6,500 | RB | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | -0.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | 7.3 | ||
| La'Mical Perine | KC | 5,000 | RB | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Rashee Rice | KC | 11,000 | WR | 12.4 | 6.6 | 16.8 | 7.9 | 70.2 | 0.5 | Main | 38.4 | ||
| Skyy Moore | KC | 5,000 | WR | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.1 | -0.2 | 99.9 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | 7,500 | WR | 3.8 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 95.5 | 0.0 | Main | 11.9 | ||
| Richie James Jr. | KC | 5,500 | WR | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 99.7 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Justin Watson | KC | 6,500 | WR | 3.0 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 93.3 | 0.0 | Main | 18.1 | ||
| Mecole Hardman Jr. | KC | 5,500 | WR | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 99.8 | 0.0 | Main | 12.9 | ||
| Travis Kelce | KC | 13,000 | TE | 14.7 | 7.2 | 19.6 | 9.9 | 65.7 | 3.3 | Main | 39.4 | ||
| Noah Gray | KC | 5,500 | TE | 2.8 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 86.3 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Blake Bell | KC | 5,000 | TE | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Harrison Butker | KC | 9,500 | K | 7.3 | 4.9 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Chiefs | KC | 9,000 | DST | 6.4 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 92.8 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Brock Purdy | SF | 14,500 | QB | 16.8 | 6.4 | 21.2 | 12.5 | 99.5 | 0.0 | Main | 29.9 | ||
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 17,500 | RB | 19.8 | 7.6 | 24.9 | 14.7 | 89.2 | 0.3 | Main | 55.9 | ||
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | 7,000 | RB | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Jordan Mason | SF | 5,000 | RB | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | 5,500 | RB | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Deebo Samuel | SF | 11,500 | WR | 12.7 | 6.9 | 17.4 | 8.1 | 71.5 | 0.6 | Main | 27.5 | ||
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 10,500 | WR | 10.8 | 6.4 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 74.3 | 0.3 | Main | 43.5 | ||
| Jauan Jennings | SF | 7,000 | WR | 3.0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 96.9 | 0.0 | Main | 10.9 | ||
| Ray-Ray McCloud III | SF | 5,500 | WR | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Chris Conley | SF | 5,000 | WR | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| George Kittle | SF | 10,000 | TE | 10.0 | 6.1 | 14.1 | 5.9 | 69.6 | 1.4 | Main | 48.2 | ||
| Charlie Woerner | SF | 5,000 | TE | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Brayden Willis | SF | 5,000 | TE | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| Jake Moody | SF | 9,000 | K | 9.7 | 5.3 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | Main | |||
| 49ers | SF | 8,500 | DST | 6.8 | 5.0 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 88.3 | 0.1 | Main |
A Word From Alex Baker on the NFL DFS Boom Bust Tool
In all DFS sports, being able to compare the strength of a player each day versus their popularity is key to success. For each player, I calculate the standard deviation based on a variety of factors and use that to calculate the ceiling (75th-percentile performance) the floor (25th-percentile performance) and the probability that they will bust (not meeting value) or boom (large field GPP winning player). Combining these metrics, you will be able to gain an edge on everyone by identifying under-owned or over-owned players.
The Boom and Bust % are determined by the probability that each player will reach a target score determined by position and salary. For instance on DK the average points/$1k for QB’s is about 3x while other positions about 2.4x. On top of that on a full slate your team has to overperform by about 100 points, which is divvied up across the 9 roster spots.
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