Boom vs Bust NFL DFS Week 11 NFL Fantasy Football Picks

Built similarly to the extremely popular NBA Boom Bust Tool here at Awesemo, the NFL Boom Bust Tool has gained popularity as the most user-friendly way to identify the best (and worst) plays on any given slate. Developed by the data team at Awesemo including Alex Baker himself, this tool makes it simple to identify under-utilized plays for Sunday’s main slate — as well highlight which plays are most likely to fail. Simply group players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom), the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust) and compare those scores to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that process in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for Week 11 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool is imperative when constructing DFS NFL lineups today.

Week 11 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom Bust Top Plays & Fades

Top Three Boom Plays

James Conner – Arizona Cardinals RB: DraftKings – $6,100 / 13.1% Ownership | FanDuel – $7,200 / 12.8% Ownership

James Conner leads the NFL with 12 touchdowns in the Cardinals last 10 games and is in a plus matchup with his team lacking depth at his position. Seattle’s defense has allowed the second-most points to running backs and Conner has seen between 77-82% of snaps in the last two games without Chase Edmonds. On top of ranking 26th in opponent rush yards (125.2), the Seahawks allow the most receiving yards per game (76) to the position, have given up 31 receptions in their last three appearances and just saw A.J. Dillon catch a 50-yarder last week. Eight of Conner’s 13 receptions came in the last two games resulting in three-quarters (102) of his 136 receiving yards this season. Conner carries a positive leverage score on both DraftKings and FanDuel and with four consecutive double-digit games, and seven on the season, he is critically underowned on both platforms.

A.J. Dillon – Green Bay Packers RB: DraftKings – $6,200 / 19.1% Ownership | FanDuel – $7,000 / 18.0% Ownership

Dillon enters Week 11 with arguably the best opportunity on the slate. Green Bay averages 26.3 rush attempts per game, increasing to 30.3 over the last three games. On top of that, third-year practice squad member Patrick Taylor will be the only other active running back on the roster. The Vikings’ defense ranks 30th in yards per rush attempt (4.7) and Dillon has proven to be capable with five double-digit performances over his short 21-game career. In two career games with over 20 attempts, he produced 26.8 and 25.9 (PPR) points and could see that type of opportunity against a defense allowing over 130 rush yards per game. He’s the only player whose boom score is higher than his bust score and also holds the highest optimal score on the slate. At under 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he’s certainly underowned, so confidently slot the Packers’ bruising back in all your Sunday lineups.

Billy Ward wrote at length about Dillon in his Week 11 Must Play NFL DFS Value Picks article, where he breaks down how much Dillon you should be getting to despite the high ownership.

Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins WR: DraftKings – $5,600 / 13.4% Ownership | FanDuel – $6,700 / 8.4% Ownership

The rookie Dolphins’ receiver comes into Week 11 with the most routes run (366) in the NFL, generating the fifth-most receptions (60) on the sixth-most targets (86) at the position. Waddle faces a Jets defense that struggles in all phases; ranking last in points (32.9), yards (433.2), and second-to-last in opponent pass yards (283.2) allowed per game. Miami is averaging the fourth-most pass attempts (39.5) per game and New York ranks 31st in opponent yards per pass attempt (8.0). That number climbed to 9.7 in the last three games and exploded to 12.5 last week. The Jets have allowed 12.1 fantasy points to the slot position in their last five games and Waddle has the sixth-most snaps (278) from the slot resulting in a 51.2% slot rate. With the amount of opportunity he sees on a weekly basis you gain massive leverage on the field, especially on FanDuel, if he busts his seventh double-digit performance this year.

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Top Three Bust Fades

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City Chiefs RB: DraftKings – $5,200 / 3.0% Ownership | FanDuel – $6,300 / 3.5% Ownership

Kansas City’s second-year running back has practiced for the second straight week and Chiefs’ head coach, Andy Reid, suggested he could return when asked about it on Friday. The intrigue is there with low ownership and a slate-leading game total (56.5) but the variability makes this too much of a blind dart throw than worth reasoning with. Dallas has been solid against running backs allowing 22.4 points per game to the position, which ranks ninth in the NFL. The Chiefs have been running with a committee backfield having three players see double-digit snaps over the last four weeks. Darrel Williams has been leading and just had one of the best games of his career last week, while Jerick McKinnon has seen 20 snaps in the last two weeks. Edwards-Helaire’s bust score sits above 60% on both DraftKings and FanDuel and with Kansas City only averaging 24.4 rush attempts per game there’s good reason. Even with such low ownership it’s worth fading the former LSU back if he returns this week against the Cowboys.

D’Andre Swift – Detroit Lions RB: DraftKings – $7,000 / 11.9% Ownership | FanDuel – $7,500 / 12.5% Ownership

After taking 36 touches in last week’s overtime tie, Swift gets a matchup with a top-five front seven that features NFL sack leader Myles Garrett. The Browns rank fourth in opponent yards allowed per rush attempt (3.8) and average 2.9 sacks per game. Detroit holds the lowest implied total (14.75) on the slate and are handing Tim Boyle his first career start. Coming into Week 11 as the most-targeted (63) running back in the NFL, Swift generates a higher floor than most backs through his involvement in the pass game. However, the issue for the Lions could be protection as a 7.5% sack rate on the season has dropped to fourth-worst at 11.1% in the last three games. Allowing nine sacks over the last two games presents a difficult situation for the Lions and nearly impossible to justify the cost for the second-worst leverage play on the slate.

With Swift being one of the worst leverage plays, we have a full guide on who — and what stacks — to play in order to gain leverage. Check out Terry McBride’s Week 11 NFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Optimizer Groups & Leverage Plays.

Baltimore Ravens Defense: DraftKings – $3,300 / 5.7% Ownership | FanDuel – $4,500 / 5.3% Ownership

As one of the more expensive defenses on the slate, Baltimore enters Week 11 struggling to generate fantasy points as a defense. In their last three games the Ravens defense has recorded 5, -1, and -1 points respectively. Sunday’s matchup with the Bears features two of the most electrifying mobile quarterbacks the league has to offer and carries a game total of 44.5. The Bears offense has seen Justin Fields grow in the last two weeks scoring over 20 points in back-to-back games for just the second time since Week 5. Baltimore has a slew of defenders currently on the injury report or already inactive, which justifies its negative leverage score on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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