Due to the NBA Boom Bust Tool’s wild popularity amongst Awesemo+ subscribers, the NFL Boom Bust Tool was created to fit the same needs. With the help Alex Baker, this tool makes it easy to recognize some of the most under- and over-utilized plays for Sunday’s upcoming main slate. Simply group players on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom), the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust), and compare those scores to their likelihood of falling in the optimal lineup. As a glimpse behind the paywall, let’s cover the top player to boom — and the most relevant player to bust — at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for Week 5 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 5 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom Bust Top Plays & Fades
Top Quarterback to Boom: Kyler Murray
With no Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen on the main slate this week, boom percentages do not stick out in a significant way at quarterback. In fact, Kyler Murray is tops at the position, with just a 13.8% chance to boom, albeit with an $8,000 salary on DraftKings that would be tough to outperform on a point-per-dollar basis. Still, his 9.4% optimal lineup appearance rate slightly edges out Dak Prescott (9.3%) for best score on the DraftKings slate, making him a fantastic tournament target considering his current 6.5% projected ownership.
Top Quarterback to Bust: Aaron Rodgers
The most likely player to bust in the tool is Davis Mills (45.8%), but considering his current 0.1% ownership, shifting our attention to the No. 2 on the board in Aaron Rodgers felt like a more worthwhile exercise. The reigning NFL MVP heads to Cincinnati as a three-point road favorite in a game that is seen its total rise from 48.5 to 51 over the course of the week. But despite bettors expecting offense in this spot, do not be surprised if the Bengals surprisingly good defense provides some resistance for the Packers’ fantasy outlook. That sentiment is echoed by the NFL Boom Bust Tool and its 45.5% bust potential for Rodgers in this spot, making him a difficult candidate to massively outperform his $7,100 DraftKings price tag.
Top Running Back to Boom: James Robinson
Jaguars backup Carlos Hyde was out for last week’s Thursday night tilt against the Bengals, and James Robinson promptly went off for a two-score performance. He was unencumbered in the backfield, playing on 95% of the offensive snaps, which will most likely not be the case with Hyde’s return in Week 5. Still, at $6,000 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel, Awesemo still projects him as the running back with the top chances to boom on both sites (32.1% DraftKings, 23% FanDuel). And with a sub-20% chance at busting as well, any workload concerns look to be mitigated by his advantageous salaries.
Top Running Back to Bust: Kareem Hunt
No question about it, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have once again become a weekly fantasy headache. The Browns are a run-first football team behind their two elite backs, but with the workload split almost exactly 50/50 in the early going of 2021, counting on a tournament-winning performance from either feels like a fool’s errand. Hunt was on the better end of the snaps split in Week 4 against Minnesota (53%), but that could just as easily change back towards Chubb in Week 5 against the Chargers. The NFL Boom Bust Tool agrees that this is a dicey situation for Hunt, as he boasts just a 2% chance at booming and a whopping 51.6% chance of busting.
Top Wide Receiver to Boom: Davante Adams
Ironically enough, the quarterback most likely to bust will be throwing to the wide receiver most likely to boom. Davante Adams has been slow out of the gate in 2021 by his standards, boasting zero fantasy-winning performances on Sunday main slates. But perhaps that makes his 34.2 DraftKings point performance on Monday night in Week 3 more hidden, which makes him an exceptional tournament target due to his 22.8% boom chances on DraftKings. And he looks even better on FanDuel with his 25.4% boom chances, making him an easy plug-and-play over there in all formats.
Top Wide Receiver to Bust: Mike Williams
Mike Williams is finally seeing some volume under the tutelage of first-year offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, and it shows in his fantasy results. He is averaging 20.7 DraftKings points per game on 35 total targets through four weeks, which bodes well for year-long players who invested in his upside. But for NFL daily fantasy, it is hard to justify his $7,200 salary on DraftKings so long as target-hog Keenan Allen and passing-game extraordinaire Austin Ekeler operate in the same high-octane offense. That is why Williams is boasting a whopping 58.2% chance to bust according to Awesemo in this spot, making him a tough play to justify against a formidable Browns defense on Sunday.
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